Mike Gonzalez (34) – A lack of command has hurt Gonzalez over the past few seasons, but he has been highly effective against lefties over his career, posting a 2.82 xFIP against 516 total lefties faced. As long as teams view him as a lefty-on-lefty guy capable of facing the occasional right-handed batter, he should find more than one offer. http://www.bloguin.com/theoutsidecorner/2011-articles/november/2012-free-agent-primer-top-10-left-handed-relievers.html
Yu Darvish: I delved into the Darvish Dilemma in a post last week, so no need to rehash the entire thing. Suffice it to say, the Japanese right-hander is going to cost a whole lot of money. He may live up to the hype and establish himself as a front-line starter in the majors, but he'd be the first Japanese pitcher to do that since Hideo Nomo. http://www.csnwashington.com/blog/nationals-talk/post/Whom-might-Nats-pursue-in-free-agency?blockID=587468&feedID=6358
Ryan Madson – Philadelphia Phillies - If he stays with the Phillies he will be their closer next year. Being the closer for the best team in the National League? That’s a tough job to pass up. After Papelbon he’s the best closer on the market, plus he’s a Scoot Boras client, so he’s going to demand some money. He might price himself out of the Phillies range, which is where the Mets might be able to swoop in and steal him. He’s thrived in the role of being a relief pitcher and the last two seasons he’s been brilliant, with a 2.55 ERA in 2010, and a 2.37 ERA with 32 saves in 2011. Plus in 60.2 innings he walked just 16 batters. That would be a nice change from Francisco Rodriguez, he seemed to walk 16 batters every week. http://mets360.com/?p=8342&mid=51
How much is too much when it comes to relief pitchers? With Jonathan Papelbon set to test the free-agent market, that question becomes central to the offseason plans of the Boston Red Sox. It was easy to envision 2011 as Papelbon's final season in Boston given his apparent regression and Daniel Bard's emergence. However, Papelbon allayed fears of his decline, posting the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. He reestablished himself as a dominant late-inning presence, while Bard faltered late in the season. Now, the Red Sox must decide if they can afford to let Papelbon go -- or how much they can afford to pay him. http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7189119/is-jonathan-papelbon-worth-15-million
Jair Jurrjens is a good example of a bad-good pitcher, in that his peripherals rarely match the shininess of his superficial stats. His career ERA is nearly a half-run better than his FIP, and his FIP is more than a third of a run lower than his xFIP. More succinctly, Jurrjen’s career ERA- is a very-nice 83, while his career FIP- is a slightly above-average 95 and his career xFIP- is a slightly below-average 102. One of the main reasons his FIP and xFIP don’t match his ERA is because of his strikeout rate. Jurrjens has never had a league-average K/9. This year, it was even lower than usual, as his K/9 dipped all the way to 5.33, nearly two strikeouts below the league average. This is likely attributable to the drop in velocity he experienced this season. Jurrjen’s average velocity has declined in each of his five big-league seasons, but until 2011, the drops were miniscule and not a cause for concern. But this season, his average fastball lost two miles per hour. Jurrjens did spend time dealing with a right knee injury, and the ability to push off the rubber may partially explain the drop in velocity, but it’s doubtful that it explains it completely. In looking at his velocity charts, we can see that the top velocity range of some of his 2011 starts don’t even reach the average velocity of some of his 2010 starts. That is a troubling sign, as is the overall drop in velocity over the years. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jurrjens-isnt-worth-a-top-prospect
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