I May Be Wrong, But… Reyes Arbitration, Free Agency, 2012 Draft, Brant Rustich

I May Be Wrong, But… Reyes Arbitration,  Free Agency, 2012 Draft, Brant Rustich

By: Mack Ade – 11-25-11

-Hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. My bride and I had a quiet one with our Chihuahua, Iggy. If any of you have even enjoyed 1% of what I write, you can thank my wife of 41-years. Those that know me know how lucky I am. Those that know her think she needs separation therapy.

-The Mets offered arbitration to Jose Reyes. That’s funny. This is like the Milwaukee Brewers offering Prince Fielder arbitration (sic). Stay with me here. What if the free agent market continues as it has started? What if most of the big money goes to renew big stars like Matt Kemp that were scheduled to be a free agent next off-season? The economy sucks, the new MLB/MLBPA agreement will up the team salaries, and the Bruce Chen’s of the world are getting 2-yrs/$9mil. What if more people decide to do what Grady Sizemore just did, sign with your old team for one year and revisit this free agent thing in a year?  Yes, the offering is a formality that guarantees that the team will get compensation picks, but is there any chance he could come back for just the 2012 season? Would the Mets pay him, let’s say $20mil for one year? Who would write the check?

-Doesn’t this free agent season seem a little slow? I’m sure someone out there has the stats on this, but the month of November leading up to the Thanksgiving weekend always seemed to be a decent signing season. To me, the Kemp signing now sets the bar for high priced talent. A team is going to have to pay a blue-chipper $20mil a year and only the amount of years in the offer seem to be negotiable.  

-The new MLB-MLBPA agreement changes everything for what direction the Mets will go in the next draft. The team is currently unable to survive any kind of luxury tax, so you will not see Sandy and Company making late round picks of prime beef, like SS Phillip Evans. All the bonus money will be used in the first five rounds. The new CBA Slots for the top 10 picks are: 1 — $7.2 million 2 — $6.2 million 3 — $5.2 million 4 — $4.2 5 — $3.5 6 — $3.25 7 — $3 8 — $2.9 9 — $2.8 10 — $2.7. Based on this slide down, the 12^th pick looks to be $2.5mil. I look for the Mets to target the four best players out there for the 1^st round, 2 supplemental picks (Reyes) and 2^nd rounder.  The new deal makes the first round next June around 40. Add the supplemental round and the Mets second round pick will come in around 55^th. That’s four of the top 55 players in baseball. The Mets new fiscal direction will demand four wins here, plus, in my opinion, this will be Alderson’s last draft. He’s going to want to go out big.

-It looks like pitcher Brant Rustich will be coming out of the chair swinging this spring.  I talked with him earlier this week and he says he’s 100% and can’t wait to get to camp. Remember, this guy was never injured. It turned out to be a condition he was born with that went undiagnosed for his entire life. That’s over now and Rustich begins tossing next week. We know the worse case here, but if the velo remains with a new found feel for the ball, he could open for St. Lucie, quickly move to Binghamton when it warms up and there actually is an outside chance he could make Queens after the all-star break. This isn’t some kid trying to make the team. Think along the lines of Chris Young. f This is a 27-year old that has averaged a strikeout per inning without having any feeling in his pitching  hand. The upside here is incredible.