Composite Top-15 2012 Draft Picks- Opinion - by Stephen Guilbert & Mack

Composite Top-15 2012 Draft Picks- Opinion

Some notes/opinion/analysis on my previous post about next summer's draft predictions:

1.) Significant difference of opinion regarding high school players: OF Nick Williams, a high school outfielder with Ken Griffey Jr. comparisons already in his back pocket, reaches as high as 4 on Orioles Nation and Mack’s lists but is not ranked in the top 15 on Bleacher Report and lands at 20 on MLB.com’s.

Mack:  Williams has moved down behind Byron Buxton as the top outfielder, but let's remember that all of this movement is happening before any of these guys have played a single inning this season.

2.) You expect the discrepancy with the younger players in the draft but it is also what allows certain players to fall a bit further than they should, allowing a team like the Mets with the #12 pick to get quite a steal. Nick Williams, Byron Buxton (unlikely), Trey Williams, Max Fried, and Lance McCullers (also unlikely but not out of the question) all fit this bill and I know I’ll be crossing my fingers one of them falls.

Mack:  Again, far too early to determine. Players like C Mike Zunino has moved far up the list and seem unobtainable by the Mets, but this list will change as soon as some pitcher throws 10 scoreless innings or Victor Roache hits three home runs.

3.) I do not see any way Zuzino and Gausman stick around until the Mets pick (although I think you would have to grab them if they are) but who knows. It does suggest that there is a chance they and even likely one of McCullers, Williams, Roache, etc. might fall to the Mets and give them a huge-upside pick.

Mack: My guess, if the draft was today, there's a good chance that either RHP Lance McCullers, LHP Max Fried, or OF Nick Williams  will be there for the 12th pick. Not a bad three guys to pick from.

4.) The 2012 draft does not have nearly the top-heavy talent of the 2011 draft but the more I look at it, the more I think it is a deeper pool, especially in high school pitching talent. A player like RHP Duane Underwood, a high school kid throwing in the high-90s is projected to go somewhere in the mid-second round. He could be Domingo Tapia’s foil right now.

Mack:  I like Underwood a lot who should be around with the Mets sup pick in the 1st round and the Mets 2nd round pick, but should be gone before the 3rd round starts.

5.) Players like OF David Dahl (the Mets pick in both My MLB and Orioles Nation projections) and RHPs Chris Beck and Lucas Sims were ranked fairly well overall but missing entirely from certain lists, thus lowering their rankings. If we were doing a ranking list of median instead of mean, all three would be in the top 20.

Mack:  All three of these guys are getting a lot of action from the newest mocks, usually done by the younger guys.

6.) The next five to round out the top 20: SS Kevin Diekroeger, 1B Joey Gallo, RHP Chris Beck, C Stryker Trahan, RHP Jake Barrett.

Mack:  Barrett is one of the pre-season mysteries. he started off the day after the last raft as the 2nd top RHP in the draft, and has now fell to below the 10th.

7.) Lastly, an idealistic look at this draft given our newly acquired early round picks: The Mets now receive a first round, supplemental, and either two second round picks or a second and a third (I am not positive how the compensation would work, in Jose's case). This could, possibly, result in Trey Williams, Stryker Trahan, Duane Underwood, and Steve Nyisztor. 3B, Catcher, SP1/closer and 2B of the future. Just maybe. Or, Mike Zunino, David Dahl, Alex Bregman and Cody Poteet. See where I am going with this? We’re talking about elite talent here midway through the second round and into the third. No, it cannot possibly replace what we are losing at shortstop but this draft is deep and I guarantee a five-star talent will still be around after the end of the second round.

Mack:  Changes hourly at this point.

--Stephen