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12/30/11

Hot Stove – LA Angels, Andrew Bailey, Miles Head, Matt Garza


The Angels system has thinned out a little from last year but there remain a number of impact talents at the top. Mike Trout is an emerging 5 tool, center field star. Trout does everything well and he does it with enthusiasm. Jean Segura is another prospect with electric tools - though obviously not on Trout's level. Segura has a very potent bat for a middle infielder. Lots of bat speed here and the ball comes off his bat well. His body type is a little stocky and thick for a shortstop, but he's a fast twitch athlete with enough arm for the position. Keeping his weight down and avoiding further hamstring woes will determine if Segura can stick at SS. If he ends up back at second base he's an impact defender there anyway, so it wouldn't hurt his stock all that much. Garrett Richards has some front line stuff and velocity. The problem is his mechanics aren't smooth or consistent and his arm action isn't pretty. This leads to poor command, inconsistent release points and pitches left up. I've seen a lot of questions about why Richards isn't striking out more guys... a lot of it goes back to his mechanics and delivery. His command and execution of his pitches isn't quite there but hitters are still unable to do much because his raw stuff is just so good. If Richards can clean up his flaws the sky is the ceiling, but he could still be an effective starter even if he doesn't. If he really falls apart he could be a late inning reliever. I'm a big fan of Kaleb Cowart. Cowart is a fast twitch athlete with standout athleticism for a 3B and a plus plus arm. He's a switch hitter with a good looking swing and plus power but he needs to improve his approach and pitch recognition. Cowart has the potential to be a star at the hot corner if he can make the adjustments. He showed flashes of that in a dominant start to his pro debut before tiring and cooling off. I thought Florida Gators reliever Nick Maronde was a steal in the 3rd round. I like his chances to stick as a starter with a three pitch mix. Reports from his Pioneer League debut were very impressive. http://bullpenbanter.com/

Andrew Bailey, 27, is under team control through the 2014 season, so the Red Sox won’t be lavishing an eight-figure annual salary on a free agent closer anytime soon. In three seasons, Bailey has struck out a batter per inning, walked 2.53 per nine, surrendered 0.57 HR/9 and posted a 2.74 FIP. Bailey’s ERA (2.07) is much lower than his FIP, but that’s due mostly to absurdly low BABIP totals and sky-high strand rates in 2009 and 2010.  He’ll also be going to a much less pitcher-friendly park. The Coliseum decreases offense by five percent compared to a neutral venue for left-handed hitters and six percent for righties, according to StatCorner. Fenway, meanwhile, has a 104 park factor for lefties and a 107 park factor for right-handers. If healthy, Bailey figures to post a high-twos to low-threes ERA. I’d put him in the same tier as guys like Joakim Soria and Carlos Marmol. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/andrew-bailey-bostons-new-closer/

Miles Head can hit a baseball. The 20-year-old first baseman proved that last summer, bashing his way to one of the best seasons of anyone in the Red Sox system. Splitting the year between low-A Greenville and high-A Salem, he emerged as a legitimate prospect by hitting .299/.372/.515, with 37 doubles and 22 home runs. Most people didn’t realize he was that good. The native of Brooks, Georgia had been drafted in 2009, in the 26th round, and prior to last year he was just another fresh-faced kid trying to figure out professional pitching. His 2010 season in short-season Lowell yielded just a .240 average and only one home run. Apparently, he was only getting his feet wet. According to Ben Crockett, Boston’s director of player development, the breakthrough was less of a surprise than it was a matter of maturation. “Miles is a lot like Brandon Jacobs,” said Crockett, comparing Head to one of the most-highly-regarded players in the Red Sox system. “They followed a very similar path from 2010 to 2011. He was kind of a raw high-school hitter who took the steps forward last year that were envisioned when he was drafted, much like Jacobs. He’s physically not going to be in the mold of your traditional body that scouts love — he’s not going to win any beauty contests — but the guy can hit. He can get the barrel to the baseball.” http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/miles-head-oakland-bound-prospect/

Despite the newly minted Cubs brass duo of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer — or Hoystein (see what I did there?) — claiming that Matt Garza is the “type of player you want to build an organization around,” they may have been doing so to remind other teams just how good the 28-year-old spark plug actually is. According to David Kaplan, an analyst on Comcast Sports Chicago, the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all interested. The Yankees and Red Sox had obvious pitching holes last season (say what you want about Beer and Chickengate 2k11, pitching really hurt the Red Sox). The Blue Jays are slowly adding the pieces to regularly compete in the AL East which we might need to rename the Showstopper Division if all teams are at their best. http://www.throughthefencebaseball.com/garza-talks-heating-up-on-the-hot-stove/15655/

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