Michael Friere - Am I Missing Something Here?

Am I Missing Something Here?

For the last few days, I have been quietly monitoring some Mets related news (speculation, actually), regarding their supposed interest in Colorado Rockies outfielder Seth Smith. To be honest, I don’t follow the Rockies that closely and in fantasy baseball circles (the only other time I pay attention to non-Mets players), Seth is not a high end commodity, so he was not on my radar.

Shocking my senses further, the speculation also mentioned that Jon Niese could be part of the package. Huh? Several days earlier, the Padres relieved the Reds of approximately forty percent of their top ten prospects for right handed starter Mat Latos and we are going after  Smith by dangling a similar, young pitcher as trade bait?

Look, I know Latos and Niese are not the same player, and they don’t share the same upside. But, one could argue that Niese (being a young and developing lefty) isn’t too far off from what Latos is expected to deliver. Point is, my initial reaction was that we were aiming low, if that speculation is correct. Not to mention, with Jason Bay and Lucas Duda slated to start 2012 in left and right field respectively, where would Seth play?

Let’s take a look at the stats, since they can sometimes tell a pretty good story as to why an odd move on the surface might actually makes some sense (or not).

Seth Smith produced a statistical line in 2011 of .284/.347/.483/.830 (which is reflect his batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS). The stat line is similar to his four year average of .275/.348/.485/.833, so he is playing to what is becoming a “normal” level. So far, he looks like he would be a solid contributor with the bat.

However, he also played half of his games in Coors Field. Did that contribute to his overall offensive prowess? Seth is also a left handed hitter, so did he platoon or did he play on a regular basis, against all sorts of pitchers?

Looking at the splits, in 2011 Seth had 476 at bats (not a full season), 384 of which were against right handed pitching. Furthermore, his statistical line against left handers (albeit, limited to under 100 at bats) was an ugly .217/.272/.304/.576, with only one of his fourteen home runs. That is not promising, at all.

Furthermore, over the bulk of his career, he has accumulated approximately 1169 at bats, which is well under 400 at bats per year (again, not a full season). Of those 1169 at bats, only 202 (or approximately 17 percent) were against left handed pitching. As you might imagine, his career statistical line against left handed pitching is pretty similar to his 2011 season (bad), coming in at 213/.279/.337/.616!

Well, what about the “Coors effect”? Again, let’s look at his statistical breakdown(s).

In 2011, Seth posted a statistical line of .285/.335/.513/.848 at Coors Field and a similar line of .282/.358/.456/.814 on the road (better on base percentage, less power). If you looked at just 2011, you might say that the Coors Field “effect” was minimal. But, let’s look a little deeper.

Over Seth’s career, his statistical line at Coors Field is .302/.367/.568/.935, which is pretty damn good. But, on the road, that drops to .248/.326/.410/.736 which is not nearly as impressive. It is also very telling, in my humble opinion.

Defensively, Seth has posted consistent numbers over his time in Colorado. While he has not accumulated many outfield assists, his Zone Rating has hovered around 13.0 and his Range Factor is just under 1.9 meaning he won’t kill you with the glove. Oddly enough, his defensive metrics are pretty similar to Jason Bay’s 2011 season (13.2 and 1.9 respectively), which isn’t great, but it is acceptable from a left fielder.

So, what have we learned? I think Seth is a solid major league outfielder who has reached his ceiling based on a decent amount of major league experience and the fact that he is almost thirty years old (no longer a prospect). Basically, Seth is a decent left handed platoon player, who would need to be paired with a solid right handed hitting partner. He has obviously benefitted from protection against left handed pitching and he also likes hitting in Coors Field (duh) as opposed to other venues. If he continued his career elsewhere, would he produce the same stats?

He would also be a valuable left handed bat off the bench, late in a game and he could get extra at bats by playing both left and right field when the “regular” left or right fielder needed a break. Pretty much how the Rockies have used him the past few years.

But, is that worth Jon Niese? A young, left handed starter who can help during the rebuilding process (there, I said it) of 2012/2013 and still be a valuable piece of the rotation in 2014. Excuse my language this close to Christmas, but are you fu#$ing high? The only way I deal Niese is if I get a return similar to the Padres in the “Latos to the Reds” trade.

Seth is probably a nice guy and he may even hold the door open at the mall for the person behind him, but he isn’t worth trading valuable assets for.

Even if we somehow picked up Seth Smith for just a bag of scuffed Mike Scott baseballs, where would he play? No one wants Jason Bay in a trade and we can’t cut him, so he and his 18 million dollar per year contract have to play in left field for 2012 (and hope for a rebound to his 2009 numbers). Lucas Duda, who gave us an exciting glimpse of what he could be in 2011, has to play full time in right field so we can see what we have. If he continues to get better, he is a piece of the puzzle in 2014 and beyond.

I don’t think Seth can play center field, so he becomes a fourth outfielder who spells Jason Bay against tough right handed starters and provides some pop off the bench late in games. A nice player on a contender, perhaps. But, on this Mets’ squad, he is only blocking the path of younger players who need to play and at almost thirty years old, he is not part of the future.

So, hopefully Sandy isn’t drinking too much egg nog and rightfully rejects any trade offers from the Rockies for Seth Smith (unless Drew Pomeranz is going to accompany him).

Random Thoughts

Speaking of being high (not that I would know), what were the Cardinals thinking? Carlos Beltran for two years, full no trade clause and 26 million dollars? I like Carlos and I appreciate everything he has done in his career, including his time in New York. But, he approaching his mid thirties, he is being held together by duct tape and string at this point and you just gave him 13 million dollars per year? Yikes!

I wonder if they added a few of the “Beltran millions” to the Pujols offer, if Albert is still a Cardinal?

My “secret bullpen weapon” for 2012, Manny Corpas, was just signed to a minor league deal (with an invitation to Spring Training), by Theo Epstein and the Cubs. Nice, low risk move for another big market team, in the early stages of a rebuilding process.

Funny how you don’t hear Cubs fans bitching about the “rebuilding” word.

You guys (and gals) should run out and grab the Samuel Adams Holiday Beer Sampler if you have the time. Lots of good beers in that pack for under twelve bucks (the Chocolate Bock is a keeper and it goes well with annoying family members during Christmas parties).

Here’s a toast to all of the loved ones who have left us much too soon.

Merry Christmas to all of you (even Seth Smith)!