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12/1/11

Reese Havens, Heath Bell, Daniel Murphy, Shortstops, Late Relievers


11-23-11: -  http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.js p?ymd=20111110&content_id=25949502&fext=.j sp&vkey=news_milb&partnerId=rss_nym -   Second base -- Reese Havens, Binghamton (58 games), St. Lucie (three games): A line-drive, gap-to-gap hitter if there ever was one, Havens batted .289 at Binghamton and collected 22 extra-base hits in an injury-shortened campaign. Back problems cropped up in June and July. "Whenever Reese has been healthy, he has always been able to perform," DePodesta said. "He's a natural hitter." Havens, selected 22nd overall in the 2008 Draft, is New York's No. 9 prospect. "Big-league hitter," echoed new Buffalo skipper Wally Backman, who managed Binghamton last season. "The issue with him has always been health. If he had stayed healthy [in 2010], I believe he would have been the second baseman for the Mets [in 2011]."

Heath Bell – $8 - Another guy without a team at the moment, Bell’s strikeout rate (7.32 K/9 and 19.9 K%) dropped off in a big way this past season, down from 10+ K/9 and 28+ K% in recent years. His walk (3.02 BB/9 and 8.2 BB%) and homer (43.3% grounders and 0.57 HR/9) numbers stayed steady, but expect the latter to spike a bit if he leaves the Padres and Petco Park. It’s worth noting that Bell’s velocity didn’t drop at all, and he did experience a somewhat similar drop in strikeout rate back in 2008, his second year in San Diego. He recovered from that perfectly fine, but he’s now 34 years old and could be moving out of baseball’s best pitchers’ paradise. Bell’s a safe bet for saves next season, but he’s no longer a slam dunk elite performer in some of the other scoring categories. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/2012-closer-keeper-rankings-tier-two

And that's not even considering the matter of money. Daniel Murphy will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after next season, meaning he will suddenly no longer be a bargain. Given all those factors, it may make sense to trade Murphy now, at the peak of his value, for a younger chip. Certainly, the Mets could receive significantly more for Murphy than they would have one year ago. Why not explore that market?  Alderson, for his part, has not ruled out trading anyone as he continues to reshape the Mets. So for all the talk of trading Wright this winter, Bill from the Bronx is right: it may make more sense at least to explore the prospect of dealing Murphy. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111128&content_id=26046972&vkey=news_nym&c_id=nym&partnerId=rss_nym

What about other shortstops? The shortstop market features Reyes, Rollins and Rafael Furcal, and more, as Yuniesky Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez and Jack Wilson are also free agents. The Phillies, Braves, Giants, Mets and others are looking. Philly has to be the favorite for Rollins, who's still beloved there for his defense and leadership, though they'd prefer that he wasn't on his own workout program. The shortstop position is interesting, with the slick-fielding Furcal, Gonzalez and Wilson, who is being looked at by six teams, including the Mets, Dodgers and Giants, plus the amazing Omar Vizquel and also veterans Edgar Renteria, Cesar Izturis and Ronny CedeƱo. – www.si.com

Most pressing for the Mets will be the acquisition of at least one -- and possibly more than one -- late-inning reliever. Though several former closers have already hooked on with new teams, the market is so stocked with relievers that more than a half-dozen potential closers remain at large, including Matt Capps, Brad Lidge, Francisco Cordero and Frank Francisco. Inking one of them in Dallas would help the Mets solve one of their most urgent issues heading into the season, after blowing saves at what Alderson called "a spectacular rate" during the second half of last summer. www.mlb.com

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