I think we are all guilty of the former, from time to time. However, I am going to try and focus more on the latter from now on. Hence, the point of these articles.
The first installment will target (maybe a bad way of referring to it!) our incumbent left fielder, Jason Bay. I will admit, I have been a bit rough on Jason over the last few months. One particular play at the plate last year where he “should have” crushed the catcher as opposed to “sliding” to the side like a coward, comes to mind. But, that sort of statement can be construed as “whining,” so in an effort to be more constructive, I will keep any other comments like that all to myself.
Let’s start with the basic facts. Jason Bay will play the 2012 season mostly as a 33-year-old player (turning 34 in September). The upcoming season will also be his tenth season in the major leagues, so it is safe to say that while Jason is a veteran outfielder who has probably peaked, he should still be useful as a left fielder and a middle of the order presence from the right side.
Furthermore, Jason is also in the middle of a lucrative, long term contract that is scheduled to pay him approximately $18 million (I still get sick when I read that), which severely limits the Mets’ short term options. In other words, he cannot be traded and the Wilpons won’t allow Sandy to simply cut him. So, by default, he is going to be our starting left fielder and he will most likely hit in the fifth or sixth position.
We are all painfully aware that Jason Bay had a nice career going, at least until he hit New York for the second time (it is easy to forget that he was a Met once before). In an effort to keep this from being a two-page statistical spread sheet, I will try to summarize what I found.
From 2004 (split with the Padres and Pirates) through 2009 (mostly with the Pirates until a mid-season trade to the Red Sox in 2008) Jason Bay was consistently a BEAST! It is so hard to remember that fact, especially watching the shell of his former self that Bay has become in New York.
From 2004-2009, Jason Bay AVERAGED the following statistics;
.280/.375/.519/.894 (OPS+ 131) 30 HR/10 SB 39.5 VORP and 4.55 WAR
That is a lot to digest. For reference (since all of you diligently read my articles on sabermetrics), Jason put together approximately six seasons that are considered excellent by anyone’s standards. For comparison, Jose Reyes (please, no more Reyes references) has averaged approximately 4.0 WAR over the past five seasons. Jason Bay was also the Rookie of the Year in 2004 (over Matt Holliday, among others) and had three other seasons where he made the All Star Game.
Most of you reading this are probably saying “bull s$#t”! But, it is true and you can look up the stats yourself if you like. Seeing the stats, the monster deal Omar gave to Jason Bay doesn’t look quite so crazy, although Omar still drastically overpaid in my opinion (sort of like the Marlins did this offseason).
Now, for the “fun part.” Let’s look at Jason’s comparable statistics in the past two years as a Met:
.251/.337/.386/.723 (OPS+ 100) 4 HR/10 SB 14.0 VORP and 0.95 WAR
My first reaction was “you have got to be kidding me!” What the hell happened? I know that the counting stats are affected because Jason simply didn’t play in as many ball games (he has averaged 455 plate appearances in his two years as a Met, versus 632 plate appearances in the six years prior), due to a variety of injuries and other reasons. That alone is part of the reason that his contract has looked so bad.
It almost seems like he was kidnapped leaving Boston and replaced with his evil twin, who is fragile and forgot how to hit a baseball and ... see, I remembered my new pledge and I am stopping the rest of this paragraph right here.
Forget the past, since it cannot really help anyone going forward (unless this was Quantum Leap and the Mets could go back to the end of 2009 and tell Omar to sign Matt Holliday instead). The $18 million question is what version of Jason Bay can we expect in 2012?
Unless something crazy happens (this is the Mets, after all), he has to be somewhere in the middle, between 2009 and the past two years, right? I mean, how can a player simply forget how to play that quickly?
I can possibly chalk some of 2010 up to the pressure of a big contract in New York and trying to get a handle on Citi Field. Maybe that lingered into 2011, along with the injuries he sustained. But, by 2012, he should be comfortable, healthy and ready to rock in the newly configured dimensions of Citi Field, right?
It is still a bit early for the 2012 PECOTA statistics (projections), so we can’t reference them at this point. However, looking at Jason’s career averages prior to his move to NY, and then reducing them a little bit (for age regression and the potential lingering effects of Citi Field), would you be happy with the following statistical line?
.265/.355/.475/.830 (OPS+ 120) 20 HR/10 SB 30 VORP and 3.0 WAR
I think it is quite possible if he stays healthy and it would go a long way towards stabilizing the Mets lineup for 2012. Not to mention, it would elevate Jason’s status to the point where the Mets may be able to rid ourselves of the final year of his contract (another $18 million) and the ensuing buyout if a contender came calling (and the Mets ate some of the money, of course). Hey, Sandy managed to get rid of K-Rod, after all.
What do you think?
Random Thoughts
The more I think about it, I admire what R.A. Dickey is doing and I am glad he is going through with it, regardless of what anyone thinks. Something tells me R.A. does whatever he wants to do, whenever he wants to do it (sort of like the “Honey Badger,” if you know what I mean).
Can you believe that the Angels backloaded the contract they gave Albert Pujols? The entire dollar amount is obscene, but the first couple of years are “only” in the low teens of millions per year, which reportedly allowed the Angels to sign C.J. Wilson as well. So, that means the last few years of the deal will average over THIRTY million dollars! Keep in mind that in and of itself is crazy, but King Albert will be almost forty years old by then (if his reported age is accurate, which is a different topic for debate on a different day).
To all of you, have a safe and Happy New Year's!
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