What Now, Johan?

Photo by Mack Ade

Last week, I started a new series of articles that I will title “What Now”? Essentially, I am going to select a different Mets’ player each week, that I feel could make a positive impact if everything falls just right. More to the point, I am selecting players that are viewed as a “bad investment” or are “questionable” to say the least, for 2012 and beyond. The first installment started with my “favorite” Mets player, Jason Bay (you can just feel the sarcasm), but this week, I want to focus on the biggest question mark of them all, Johan Santana.

Man, I can remember a few short years ago (January 2008), when the Mets announced that they agreed to a trade with the Minnesota Twins for Johan Santana! I was so stoked that I couldn’t do anything else at work for the rest of the day. A true ace and a lefty to boot! Hell, he won multiple Cy Young awards with the Twins and he was now the top dog in our rotation. He would be our “Phillies killer” and finally lead us to that elusive World Series trophy.

There was a small caveat, however. Johan wanted a new deal and the Mets had a seventy-two hour window to negotiate a new contract, or everything was off. Oh, boy! I felt pressure as a fan, never mind what Omar must have been feeling. As it turned out, the Mets signed Johan to a HUGE contract just a few minutes before the (second) deadline passed and the historic deal was approved. Huge is probably an understatement, as the 6 year/137 million dollar deal was a record for a pitcher at the time (which could end up being a 7 year/150 million dollar deal in the unlikely event his option is picked up for 2014).

Don’t you recall how most of the “experts” felt like the Mets got Johan for less then was expected? I mean, the Yankee fans were beside themselves for “letting” Johan go to the Mets (I mean, after all, the universe revolves around the Yankees). Generally speaking, most folks thought that the Mets “won” the trade, despite overpaying a “little bit” on the contract.

Looking back, a huge red flag should have been waving in Omar’s face. I mean, who trades an ace in his prime, especially a left hander who was the “face” of the Twins franchise at the time? Never mind that the deal was for a group of average prospects, with no real “studs” in the mix. Remember Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey? Actually, Phillip Humber is finally starting to figure things out, it seems, but not for the Twins.

Rumor had it that the Twins offered Johan a 5 year/100 million dollar extension in the days leading up to the trade, but it was rejected by the Santana camp. So, you cannot unequivocally state that the Twins knew that letting him go was the best move. However, I will argue that they probably (and accurately) felt that Johan’s best days were behind him and that his injury risk going forward was not worth the money he was seeking. Isn’t that usually the case with these monster deals? Clubs pay for the player’s accomplishments as much as what they “might” get going forward (I am talking to you, Angels).

Johan was actually very good in 2008 for the Mets and solid for most of 2009. But the wheels came off the cart after that (for him and the Mets as a team) and we know the rest. Since we cannot change the past, let’s look at where we are and try to make the best of the situation.

At this point, Johan Alexander Santana is a soon to be thirty three year old left handed starter, who is owed 49.5 million dollars over the next two seasons! Yes, you read that right. Plus, he has a 25 million dollar team option for the 2014 season, that can be bought out for 5.5 million dollars (there is a chance that it can become a player option, but it is tied to Cy Young voting and innings pitched between 2011 and 2013, so that is unlikely).

I don’t see the option being picked up, so you can actually state that Johan will cost the Mets 55 million dollars for the remainder of his contract. Can you say ALBATROSS! There is no way that Sandy could move that contract, unless Johan reverts to the 2004 version AND the Mets ate most of the cash. Point is, we are stuck with him and who would have thought that was a bad thing in 2008?

On a more relevant note, Johan is also coming off a series of injuries, the most serious of which is a major shoulder injury/surgery that wiped out a good portion of his 2010 season, as well as all of his 2011 season. He is supposed to be taking part in his normal offseason throwing program and looks to be ready to try and pitch in Spring Training.

Some (possibly delusional) fans and writers are thinking that Johan just needs to get his shoulder strength back and he will be like the Johan of old. I don’t see that happening, unfortunately. I think there is a better possibility that he never pitches a meaningful game again, as opposed to a return to his prior dominance.

From 2003 through 2007, a total of five seasons (his prime with the Twins), Johan pitched a total of 1070 innings (214 average per year), with an average WAR of 5.9 (excellent) and an average RAR (viewed as runs saved above replacement level for pitchers) of 62, which is also excellent. Plus, he won two Cy Young awards and made multiple All Star game appearances.

From 2008 through 2010, a total of mostly three seasons (all with our beloved Mets), Johan pitched in a respectable 600 innings (200 per year average), with an average WAR of 4.8 (still very good) and an average RAR of 48, which is still well above average. Johan also finished third in the Cy Young voting in 2008 and he represented the Mets in an All Star game.

I think it is safe to say that Johan was still pitching pretty well with the Mets, when he was able to make his scheduled starts.

What is interesting is that he made approximately 36 million dollars over the three listed Mets’ years, while “only” making 28.5 million during the aforementioned five seasons with the Twins. Pretty good work, if you can get it, either way.

So, we have hit the past pretty well, but what of the future? Take away the injuries and the surgeries and you would still have a declining pitcher who would be naturally regressing at this stage in his career. But, when you add in the medical portion of the equation, you have a HUGE question mark.

Does Johan go the way of Mark Prior? He had a similar injury situation and has yet to make it back (and probably never will). Does he follow the path of Ching Ming Wang, who had a similar surgery and just started to pitch fairly well towards the end of 2011 for the Nationals (two years removed from the procedure)?

I would like nothing more then for Johan to come back 100 percent, but that is unrealistic. Do I think he will pitch in 2012? Yes, I do. Do I see him pitching a full season, meaning 30 or more starts and over 200 innings? Nope.

Would you be satisfied if he needed extended spring training innings and eventually made it to the Mets some time in late May or early June? Say he is able to make around 20 starts due to the delay and the need for some extra rest and he contributes around 120 respectable innings at the back of the rotation?

I can see that happening, but that is the best case scenario, in my opinion. Not worth the original trade and not worth the crazy contract, but probably better then we have a right to expect after the injury and surgery he went through.

Add in a marginally better 2013, where he also serves as a mentor for our young pitching prospects as they arrive in New York and that is about the best we can hope for, right?