The Flushing 14 - Week ending 2-16-12

SP  Matt Harvey

              From Bleacher:[i]

If all goes well for Harvey this season, he will have a chance to get a September call-up, but he will most likely make his major league debut in 2013. Regardless of what happens, this will be a crucial year for Harvey's development. Harvey projects to be the Mets' No. 2 pitcher of the future.

David Lennon:

Tweet - Matt Harvey developed a sinker this winter. Makes that coffee taste a little better this morning, doesn't it

              Adam Foster:[ii]    

Harvey is a pretty safe bet to be a MLB No. 2-3 starter. He was a coveted high school arm who went on and put together a healthy college career. Harvey throws hard, gets a lot of ground balls and misses bats. Expectations for first-round-caliber prep arms tend to be very high. Harvey probably won't turn into an ace. He gets by on sink and ground balls as much as strikeouts. It's a player profile that tends to be undervalued in the prospect realm.

              Patrick Flood:[iii]

The point being: It is possible that both Wheeler and Harvey become important parts of the 2014 Mets, although it may not be probable. If you imagine the two are a pair of dice, the odds both become quality starting pitchers are similar to the odds of rolling an 11 or higher, while the odds they both fail is similar to the odds of rolling a four or below. Roll a five or six, you end up with one Pelfrey and one bust; roll a seven, you get two Pelfreys; roll an eight, you get a quality pitcher and a bust; a roll of a nine or 10 gets you one Pelfrey and one quality pitcher.

SP  Zack Wheeler –

              Bleacher:

He has been working on his changeup, whim has turned out to be a good third pitch for him. He used to suffer from surrendering too many walks, but that problem abruptly stopped last year. Wheeler's walk numbers were the best in his career after the Beltran trade. He is improving at a rapid pace and has a real chance to become the future ace for the Mets.

              JD Sussman/Bullpen Banter[iv]:

The argument for Wheeler's inclusion is not a mere Florida State League mirage. According to StatCorner.com, the Mets' right hander boasted a 2.05 tRA (157 tRA+)while the league average was 4.71 this season.  After a larger sample size, it will may become more clear whether the Giants' imposed mechanical change was the cause of Wheeler's control issues. Expect him to continue to state it next season in the warm weathered Florida State League before moving to Binghamton in June.

              Patrick Flood:

Harvey and Wheeler have an enormous amount of upside . . . but they’re also pitching prospects. Even top pitching prospects fail with alarming regularity. I can’t justify putting either pitcher ahead of Ruben Tejada, Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese, or Daniel Murphy, players who are already useful major leaguers for the Mets. And that’s why I bumped them down here.

SP Jeurys Familia – 

               NESN[v]

Familia’s numbers indicate that he should rank much higher on this list, as the 22-year-old righty stuck out over a better per inning in Double-A last season while supporting a 3.96 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark. Familia’s ground ball and walk rates were less than stellar, which is part of the reason he finds himself just barely making this list. The biggest cause for concern, though, is his delivery, which looks to make him an injury waiting to happen. If he can stay healthy he’s a number three starter or shutdown reliever, but that’s a gigantic if.

Bleacher:

His secondary pitches are coming along, and his control showed improvement last season. Familia's walk rate improved last season, along with his increasing number of strikeouts. He has a whole lot of potential, and if he can continue to improve his command, then he will become a very strong pitcher.

Joe Demayo:[vi]

In 2012 between High-A St Lucie and Double-A Binghamton Familia started 23 games and posted an ERA of 2.90. In 124 innings he allowed 106 hits, 11 home runs and had a K/BB of 3.07 (132 K/43 BB). I saw Familia start in Double-A and came away impressed with his fastball that sat 93-95 and touched 97 three times. With a change in his delivery to be more upright I saw more downward plane on his slider and an improved but still below average change-up. He has the ceiling of a #3 starter but in my opinion his delivery and arsenal might be best suited for late inning relief duty. I still think his slider and change need more work to be the type of guy I call a lock down closer. I consider him a pretty safe bet to be a quality 8th inning guy at the MLB level with the chance for more depending on how he improves. I see Familia starting in Triple-A and possibly being someone who can come up this year if there is a need in the rotation

SP Jenrry Mejia –

              Fantasy Baseball:[vii]

Jenrry Mejia (elbow) could begin throwing off a mound as soon as pitchers and catchers report to Mets' camp next Monday. Mejia is currently working his way back from Tommy John surgery. The 22-year-old right-hander wanted to arrive to spring training early, but the Mets advised that he stay in his native Dominican Republic in order to continue throwing on flat ground. The hope is that he'll begin pitching in minor league games in May, which would mark 12 months since the procedure

RP Josh Edgin – 

              From Toby Hyde:

I see a heavy lefty who was 24 in low-a picking on much younger players in the SAL.  His strikeout rate took a big hit in the Florida State League.

RP Jack Leathersich –

Did you know that “Leather” was 2^nd in the country (Div-2) last year with a 12.74 K/9 ratio… 126-K in 89.0IP for Mass-Lowell

RP – Brant Rustich –

              Andy McCullough:[viii]

Brant Rustich, a 2007 second-round pick once ticketed for the big-league bullpen, threw his first bullpen session since last April on Tuesday and reported no ill effects a day later. Rustich missed all of 2011 while dealing with nerve damage in his right shoulder. The injury was caused by a genetic syndrome called thoracic outlet syndrome, which makes it difficult for Rustich to properly grip the baseball

2B – Reese Havens –

              From Bleacher:

He is not getting any younger, and this season will prove to be crucial to his major league career. If Havens can stay healthy this season, and produce, then he might find his way to the MLB.The Mets can only hope that Havens conditioned himself very well this season. If he stays healthy, then expect big things from Havens; if he doesn't, then things won't go so well for him.

              Joe Demayo:

PLEASE STAY HEALTHY KID. I have seen Reese Havens play in Binghamton the last two seasons and he is one of the most impressive hitters that I have seen as a B-Met in those couple years. He has a very smooth short stroke and barrels up the ball consistently. He drives the ball with authority all over the field and has a very good knowledge of the strike zone. Defensively I think the best you’re going to get is average, but he is comfortable around the bag turning the double play and makes all the plays he should. But he simply cannot stay healthy at all. Every year since being drafted he’s been hurt. The hope is that he will finally be healed from the surgery he had that shaved some rib off which was causing issues with his oblique. The Mets gave him the whole off season off to cure it and are confident he will come to camp ready to go. If that’s the case then I think it will be tough for the Mets to not have Havens up playing 2nd base every day sooner than later. I have always felt Daniel Murphy was best in a role where he spot started all over the place and was a quality left handed bat off the bench. I do not have the confidence he can play 2nd base full time and I am not a big Justin Turner fan. If you are a Mets fan you are praying for Havens’s healthy. If he is healthy and he gets some quality big league time he will open a ton of eyes around the league.

SS  Jordany Valdespin –

              From Bleacher:

He is a speedy middle infielder who steals a fair share of bases. Valdespin has a great arm in the field, but he can also be prone to errors sometimes. He is a good contact hitter and will even bust out a few home runs every once in a while. He also possesses a very attractive speed-power tool set

Minorleaguerundown:[ix]

He only has an outside shot of staying on the left side of the infield going forward. Even so, he may grab enough games at the major league level to earn fantasy eligibility, and if not he could still be a very interesting second base option. In his first full year at Double-A (at age 23), Valdespin showed off an interesting power/speed combo (.186 ISO, 37 steals), and the ability to hit for quality average. It’s only the first year he’s done it with any consistency, so don’t expect the world next year, but even so he could be a good fantasy option in a home park with fences slowly creeping closer to home. Valdespin’s biggest negative is plate discipline, and unfortunately it could totally destroy any fantasy value that he does have

3B – Wilmer Flores –

              From Bleacher:

He didn't produce fantastic numbers last season, but he still managed to show flashes of why he is one of the Mets' top prospects. Flores barely strikes out, and his power seems to be on the cusp of emerging. Flores will be at the ripe age of 20 for most of this upcoming season, and that should ease many Mets fans' minds. He's still right on track, and he seems primed for a huge season.

              From Toby Hyde[x]:

Projected 2012 Start: Projecting Flores’ 2012 start is as hard as any player in the system.  He’s been at St. Lucie for a year and a half, but his numbers don’t scream, “ready for double-A.” I really think there’s almost an even chance that he breaks camp in AA-Binghamton or heads back to St. Lucie for another few months.

C  Juan Centeno –

OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis –

              From Bleacher:

The Mets will be looking to see if he is healthy and can pick up where he left off last season. Nieuwenheis has a fair amount of power and even a bit of surprising speed. He hits for a solid average, too. He'll have a real chance at playing center field for the Mets this season if Andres Torres struggles. If Nieuwenheis can stay healthy and produce in the minors, then he will almost definitely be in Queens by the time the All-Star Game comes around

From Michael Baron:

                       I am intrigued by Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Kirk is in excellent     shape, showing no ill-effects from shoulder.

             

Mack:

There are some great reports coming out of spring training regarding Kirk’s shoulder. There doesn’t seem to be any signs of a past injury and everyone that has seen him both on the field and in the clubhouse says he looks ripped. A healthy Captain can do so much for this team. It puts pressure on Andres Torres to return to his 2010 form and gives the Mets the opportunity to slow down Matt den Dekker and give him the 2012 and 2013 season to hone his game. This is very good news who doesn’t have the bucks right now to look outside their system for outfield help.

From Ted Berg:

I’m picking Nieuwenhuis over den Dekker because he has hit more and done it at higher levels, and I’m putting him in right field instead of center because I’m hoping it starts happening this year and displaces Jason Bay

              Joe Demayo:

If Nieuwenhuis did not sustain the shoulder injury he did in 2011 there is a good chance we are talking about him as the center fielder for the 2012 Mets and chances are Andres Torres is not traded for. GM Sandy Alderson has come out and said that he feels Nieuwenhuis is about half a season away from being ready. I think that means if Torres does not perform like he should, Kirk could take over his job by the All Star Break. From what I have seen from Nieuwenhuis and what I have been told he is more or less average across the board tools wise. He is the type of guy I can see going 15/15 at the big league level. He does not have the arm for a corner and there’s question about his range to play center so he is a bit of a tweener. The way he plays the outfield reminds me a bit of Eric Byrnes who did man center for some time in Oakland. Nieuwenhuis is afraid of nothing and goes 110% after every ball. I’d put the likelihood of seeing him roaming center field at Citi Field this summer extremely high if he’s healthy.

OF Matt den Dekker

              From Toby Hyde:

At 24 entering 2012 with a poor half-season in double-A to his credit, it’s hard to see a star here, but he could be a very solid centerfielder if he can limit his strikeouts. 2011: All told, between advanced-A and double-A, den Dekker had 32 doubles, 11 triples, 17 homers and 24 stolen bases.  That’s a nice power-speed combination.

Michael Baron:

Great kid. MLB ready outfielder now. Needs more refinement offensively, plate disc…  Kirk will be a good OF'er - DD will be a great OF'er if his bat evolves.

RT @MackAde: @michaelgbaron - thoughts on den Dekker?

              From Ted Berg[xi]:

I’m holding out hope for Matt den Dekker because he’s pretty funny on Twitter, but expecting two relatively unheralded (at least in the national sense) current Minor Leaguers to emerge as starters by 2014 seems a bit too bullish for my tastes.

OF Cesar Puello –

              From Bleacher:

He has improved in each of his professional seasons with the Mets, and 2011 was no different, as his power seemed to emerge last year. Puello complemented his speed with his newfound power, and he became quite a threat both at the plate and on the basepaths.

              From Ted Berg:

A lot of people seem to love Cesar Puello, but it seems troublesome that he got hit by pitch more than he walked in 2011

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[i] http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1062547-top-11-new-york-mets-prospects-of-2012#/articles/1062547-top-11-new-york-mets-prospects-of-2012/page/12

[ii] http://networkedblogs.com/tXs3M

[iii] http://www.patrickfloodblog.com/2012/02/14/2014-mets-power-rankings-pre-spring-training/

[iv] http://bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=549:2012-top-100-23-zack-wheeler&catid=21:2012-top-prospects-write-ups&Itemid=5

[v] http://www.nesn.com/2012/02/red-sox-matt-barnes-ryan-lavarnway-lead-nesn-top-100-prospects-100-81.html

[vi] http://stlucietoflushing.com/?p=435

[vii] http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=5833&line=348948&spln=1

[viii] http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2012/02/mets_outfielder_mike_baxter_ha.html

[ix] http://www.minorleaguerundown.com/2012/02/15/top-10-fantasy-prospects-at-shortstop-for-2012/

[x] http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/17-ss-wilmer-flores/

[xi] http://www.tedquarters.net/2012/02/14/twitter-qa-2/