Michael Friere - What Now, Ike?

A few weeks ago, I started a new series that will be titled “What Now”? Basically, I am going to highlight a specific Mets’ player that will be expected to play an important role in the 2012 season. However, due to a variety of reasons such as youth or injuries, their future can be viewed as questionable.

Last week’s installment focused on two of our newest bullpen pitchers and potential closers, in Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch. This week, I want to focus on a player who was on the verge of becoming one of the best first baseman in all of baseball, until a freak ankle injury last May. Yes, I am talking about Ike Davis. I like Ike! Ok, I had to get that out of my system, so let’s get a bit more serious.

The Mets drafted Ike with the 18th overall pick, in the first round of the 2008 Major League Baseball draft out of Arizona State University. Advance billing on Ike was that he was a solid hitter, with decent amount of power and an excellent glove. Plus, Ike was left handed, which is considered advantageous for a first baseman (at least according to Keith Hernandez, who knows a thing or two about the position).

The pick, made during the Omar Minaya era, was largely well received as the system was devoid of any real first base prospects at the time. Since Ike was an advanced prospect (college attendee), he was also expected to move pretty quickly, which he did. Ike actually made his major league debut less than two years later, during the 2010 season.

In 601 plate appearances in 2010, Ike posted a basic statistical line of 264/.351/.440/.791 with 24 runs over replacement and 2.5 wins above replacement, while finishing seventh in the Rookie of the Year voting. Ike also played excellent defense, made several highlight catches near the railing/dugout area and threw in three stolen bases for good measure. Maybe not an All Star season, but a nice debut in any case and cause for optimism for 2011 and beyond.

Moving ahead to 2011, Ike started out the year like “a house on fire”. Anyone paying attention could tell he was rapidly becoming one of the better first basemen in baseball. In his first 149 plate appearances (or approximately one quarter of a season), Ike posted the following statistical line .302/.383/.543/.925 with 13 runs over replacement and 1.3 wins over replacement. Simple extrapolation would net 52 runs over replacement and 5.2 wins over replacement for an entire year, which is elite level play and definitely All Star worthy.

Just for reference, if Ike had produced 5.2 WAR in 2011, it would have been good enough for fifth best in all of baseball, at the first base position (which is usually loaded with offensive oriented players). He would have been just ahead of Albert Pujols (5.1) and just behind Prince Fielder (5.5) on the list, which is interesting to say the least.

But, as we all know, that was not meant to be. In true Mets fashion (i.e. agonizingly unbelievable), Ike injured his ankle on an infield popup of all things, when he and David Wright collided near the pitcher’s mound. What was first thought to be a minor injury, eventually morphed into a bizarre, season ending affair that also casts doubt on his 2012 season, and beyond.

So, what now? Well, for starters, if you believe the most recent information about Ike’s situation (and that may require some faith on our part after last year), he is reportedly “100 percent physically” and he will be at PSL for the start of Spring Training. IF that is true, it is awesome news in a year where the Mets really need something positive to embrace.

Let’s analyze this for a second. Ike hurt his ankle and it is supposed to be back to normal, or close to it. While Ike is a pretty big dude at 6-4 and 230 pounds, he also plays a position where mobility is not as crucial as other positions, like CF or even SS. Plus, his true value on the offensive side of things is driving in runs from the middle of the order, as opposed to using his speed to get on base and make things happen. Even if his ankle is “only” 90 percent after the injury, it shouldn’t affect his contributions much, if at all.

I think Ike picks up in 2012, where he left off in May of 2011. His statistical line, posted above, is a nice starting point and more then reasonable to expect for all of 2012 (if he can stay out of David’s way). With Albert and Prince both heading over to the American League, it would not be a stretch to say Ike will battle Joey Votto for the title of best first baseman in the National League.

Furthermore, Ike will celebrate his 25th birthday in March and is scheduled to make 425,000 dollars for the season. He is arbitration eligible after the 2013 season and will not hit free agency until the 2017 season. What does this mean? Well, he is young player under team control for several more seasons, playing a talent scarce position with a ton of talent and a bright future. In other words, just the kind of player Sandy loves and a building block for the future, when the cavalry comes to town in 2014.

Random Thoughts

Maybe it is just me and my Type A personality, but I am getting tired of the non-stop crap being directed towards the Mets by the media. It is the WILPONS who are having issues and may have played a role in the Madoff situation. I know they own the Mets, but you would think the players were involved as well.

Furthermore, don’t you just love it when “anonymous” or “unnamed” sources and scouts give opinions. Like the other day, a supposed scout said the Mets couldn’t win 70 games this year. Really? If you are so bright, attach your name to that prediction (sort of like everyone was all over the Cardinals winning the WS, at this time last year). This, coming from a profession where getting 10 percent of your picks right is considered doing well. I wish the bar were set so low for my own job.

Lastly, I would like to see some fire from the Mets and the fan base. I am tired of the negativity and the apathetic viewpoint shared by everyone. How about getting a little prideful and angry for a change. Maybe I am "old school", but part of winning is being willing to stand up for yourself and punch the other guy in the mouth, if necessary. If you are going to lose, you may as well go out fighting, right? Better than throwing in the towel before the first round even starts.