2012 will be the first year that the draft takes place after the new collective bargaining came into play. Team will no longer be allowed to offer large, above-the-slot, bonuses without having penalties harsh enough to even make the Yankees run in the other direction.
Many experts feel that a larger portion of top high school prospects will now chose college rather than signing with a major league team. Use the New York Mets 15th pick in the 2011 draft as an example. Would prospect SS Phillip Evans have signed with the Mets this late in the draft without the over-slot bonus? Of course not.
The reality is that Evans wouldn't have even been around by the 15th pick. He was thought to be a lock to go to college; however, when you even the field when it comes to the bonus amount, I'm sure someone would have picked him earlier.
So, what do you do? You're participating in a draft that is considered weak in quality college players and the talent coming straight out of high school in June has been reported as possibly the best ever.
Based on talent alone, I estimate that at least 20 high school players will be picked in the first round. Maybe 25. But, here's the rub.
How do you define high school talent?
I want you to do something. Call up your local high school and ask them when the next home game is. Then, go watch the game.
Even better, do some research and find out what the best team is in your area. Then, go watch that game.
When you get there, ask around who the best pitcher will be in the game. Also, find out who the stick is.
Follow these kids throughout the game and imagine them either pitching to David Wright, or hitting against Jon Niese.
I'm not saying that high school players don't have talent, they just haven't learned how to apply it yet.
Show me 100 scouts and I will show you 100 scouts that would rather draft a high school senior than a college junior. Every scout wants to "discover" someone. I don't want to "discover" anyone.
High school ballplayers have "tools" Their tools are considered "raw". Pitchers are judges on how fast they throw a baseball. Hitters are judges on where the ball winds up after they swing at it. No emphasis is placed on who is hitting against the pitcher, or who the hitter just hit.
Your neighborhood baseball team may have one ballplayer that is projecting skills that could possibly make the pros some day. The division that team plays in might have half a dozen. The region... a dozen.
The rest are going to be accountants, or car mechanics, or web designers.
Now, call up the closest D1 college you have in your area. Find out the next Friday they are playing at home and go to that game. Ask around about who the best hitter and pitcher will be in that game, and watch them.
You're now going to be watching a pitcher that has learned "where" to throw a ball, rather than just heave it as hard as he can. He also will have more than one quality pitch and has learned that velocity is only one weapon in his arsenal.
And the hitter? Well, he still probably strikes out too much and needs to learn plate discipline, but he's earning his positive stats against quality pitchers rather than someone on the other high school team in his neighborhood that's going to be plumber.
I could take a year out my life and put this to paper, but trust me... there is a much higher percentage of high school players that are picked in the first two rounds that don't make it, than their counterparts that just completed their junior year in a top college.
I love Walker Weichel or Lance McCullers as a pitcher, but I'll take Mark Appel or Kevin Gausman any day.
Ditto Stryker Trahan vs. Mike Zunino.
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