A Look At Future Mets Pitching – Mack Ade

 The all-star breaks are upon us and the short-teams open next week. This is probably a good time to look at what’s going on inside Sandy and Company’s war room (no longer smoke-filled) when they sit around and talk about the future of pitching in the New York Mets organization.

It’s becoming quite evident that the Mets have developed, so far, only two future starters.

Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler will get there and, isn’t it ironic that we keep talking only about these two guys when it comes to superlatives. There’s very little either one of these two have to do at their current level, so their immediate future is more dependent on how well guys like Dillon Gee and Chris Young pitch. I’m currently batting, when it comes to guessing what the Mets will do next,  a little over what Reese Havens is producing so I’ll leave it here. Still, you will see both of these very talented pitches sometime in the 2013 Mets rotation.

Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia spin another tale.

Familia is proving every outing that he should come out of the pen, throw 20 dominant sliders and fastballs, and go wrap his arm up for the press conference. He’s potentially a great pitcher, but he’s (IMO) not a future great starter. The Mets coaches have literally tried for years to get him to command a third pitch and, frankly, all the attention to that has caused him to lose command with a great fastball with sink and a sick sinker with fast. They’ll probably let him finish the season in the Buffalo rotation, have him pitch out of some winter pen, and arrive next camp as a potential 2-inning middle reliever (desperately needed on the parent team).

Mejia is a different story. We all have surgeries and no one ever revisits them in the press once they are healed. I am one of millions that have had back surgery. Mine was successful, but I don’t go around now mixing cement for a living. For reasons undefined, the Mets feel Mejia’s arm needs babying since his TJS and that’s fine with me. You will see him in Queens this season, probably in an eighth inning role. Hopefully, we’ll see him as the 6th-7th guy the current team needs to keep their wild card quest.

Either way, the system (and a great trade) have produced four great pitchers that will be added to the 2013 25-man squad.

Past that, only one pitcher is standing out. Josh Edgin is struggling at Buffalo. Elvin Ramirez’ head may never heal. Darin Gorski seems to have hit the Eric Beaulac ceiling. And the team seems to think more of Collin McHugh’s blogging than pitching.

The rest of the Buffalo, Binghamton, and St. Lucie staff have either proved they are not capable of sustaining success above the minor league level or they have not stood out as someone that will command at that level someday. I’m not saying there isn’t another Gee there. It just hasn’t stood out yet.

My guess (coming from the ex-President of the Alay Soler fanclub and the current campaign manager of the Elvin Ramirez For President movement) is Michael Fulmer is the next potential Mets starter, followed by someone you know little of right now, Luis Mateo.

Fulmer has showed remarkable poise for a high school kid and is currently 4-3, 3.35, 1.22, 51.0-IP, 44-K, 19-BB. His stat line proves he has a long way to go and he’s going to have to develop a few more clicks on his heater, but the talent is there. I’d leave him in Savannah for the season and ETA him in 2015.

Mateo wowed them in the DSL league last year, going  6-1, 2.00, 80-K, 5-BB, 63.0-IP and you might see him pitch opening day for Brooklyn tomorrow. He was signed in 2011 with a $150,00 bonus and he’s what I wrote back then:

“5-12-11: - The Mets announced that they have signed another top international prospect. 21-year old Luis Mateo signed for a $150,000 bonus. The 6-3, 175 pound RHP originally signed ($625K) with the Giants, but the contract voided when bone chips were found in his right elbow. Then the Padres agreed to sign him ($300k), until reports came out that his reported age was wrong. The MLB finally just suspended the dude for a year so he could figure out, err… when he was born. 3.17.92 became 3.22.90 and here comes the Mets.  Mateo reportedly throws in the 93-96 range, plus a “decent” slider.”

Yes, he’s a little old for the current level he’s pitching at, but reports out of extended camp is that he showed the Mets coaches that he was the best they had their this spring.

So…

Look for the combination of Johan Santana, RA Dickey, Jon Niese, Chris Young, and Dillon Gee to continue to be the 2012 rotation. 

Watch for Matt Harvey to replace either Young or Gee if either of them falter. 

Then, enjoy both Harvey and Wheeler to get a September call-up once the pennant is out of reach. 

2013 will bring (at least) the option year for Dickey, the last year of Santana, Niese, Harvey, and an SP5 to be determined. 

And then, in the year I have always projected as the next New York Mets World Championship… Wheeler, Harvey, Dickey, Niese, and ???, with Familia in the 8th, and Mejia closing.