Stephen Guilbert- Final Mock Draft 2012

 

Editor's Note- From David- Stephen worked for hours putting this together, compiling information from a myriad of sources from all over the map. It's not meant to be exact, as he put it very well at the end of the post- what it IS is thoughtful, insightful, and quite possibly, as close to being right as anyone else out there. Enjoy and we all can't wait to see how this actually plays out.

1.) Astros- Carlos Correa- High School SS. Part of this ranking is because I think he is the single best player in this draft. Part of it is due to his last few workouts being fantastic. Finally, the Astros have claimed they are still considering multiple players. Their scouts say they like Buxton and management likes Appel. I like Correa and I think the Astros will recognize the supreme talent from a left-side infielder and surprise a lot of people.

The safe move is Appel, the sexy pick is Buck Buxton. The smart pick is Correa.

Considering for 1-1: Appel, Buxton, Gausman, Fried

2.) Twins- Mark Appel- College RHP. The Twins were all set to take Buxton, thinking the Astros were going to take Appel, but one of the worst kept secrets in this draft is that the Twins much prefer pitching. They have been playing the “we will take the best player available” card for weeks now but they will be thrilled to see Appel on the board and will snatch the future ace without looking back. In my opinion, the Twins would have gone with Gausman if Appel were taken #1. The system needs pitching badly and the Twins, historically, like college pitchers. Perfect scenario here for the Twins taking Appel.

For those who think Appel did not dominate in college, his stats this year: 9-1 in 13 starts, 103 IP, 108 Ks, 22 walks, 82 hits, .215 average against. Four complete games, one shutout, only three home runs surrendered.

Twins rumored targets: Correa, Buxton, Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, Zunino

3.) Mariners- Buck Buxton- High School OF. The Mariners could go with catcher Mike Zunino here but the upside of Buxton is too much to ignore. They were highly interested him in the months leading up to the draft, and will take one of the more down-to-earth top prospects you will ever encounter. Not to mention unbelievably talented.

Buxton did everything right this spring and, while he has some risk, the Mariners can be patient with him. Draws comparisons to the Upton brothers and Josh Hamilton and Callis has mentioned that he considers him a better prospect than Bubba Starling—who was taken #5 overall in a much stronger draft last year.

Great pick for the Mariners and a top-35 prospect in all of baseball by the time he starts playing professionally.

Also targeting: Correa, Zunino, Gausman, Appel, Zimmer, Almora

4.) Orioles- Kevin Gausman- College RHP. The Orioles held a private workout for Buxton but only in rare circumstances could I see Buck fall to #4. This is the consensus pick here and has been my thought for quite some time now as well.

The Orioles have done a nice job drafting the past couple years and are in a prime position to start a dynasty of winning, given the talent already in Baltimore and the number of fantastic prospects climbing the ranks. The best player on the board at this point is Mike Zunino but the Orioles demonstrated in 2008 that they have faith in Matt Weiters as the catcher of the future by selecting Brian Matusz when Buster Posey was still on the board.

They will pass on Zunino here and take a fantastic collegiate righty who could front their rotation for years to come. They have gone three high schoolers in a row after taking three collegiate athletes in a row the three years prior so there is no “pattern” except to take the best talent available given the future dynamic of the team. That means taking Kevin Gausman with this pick.

Targets: Not too sure. I would imagine they are in on Almora, Fried, and Zimmer as well. If management particularly likes Zimmer, they could opt for him over Gausman.

5.) Kansas City Royals- Mike Zunino- College C. The Royals will want to draft starting pitching here but cannot pass on a catcher who has drawn comparisons to a young Jason Varitek (and, more recently, Buster Posey). The Orioles and Giants have proven how valuable an established, collegiate catcher with a good bat and elite defensive skills can be at the major-league level. While the itch might be to take Kyle Zimmer, Lucas Giolito, or Lance McCullers Jr. (who the Royals scouted while Jesuit HS was in the playoffs) or even reach a bit for high-upside lefty Max Fried, the quality, relative safety, and potential for a middle-order, gold-glove catcher give the Royals one of the best players in the draft.

I am not convinced the organization believes in Cam Gallagher as the catcher of the future. Last year, while stating they prefer pitching, the Royals took a hitter and BPA with Starling and they will again here. Having given Salvador Perez a vote-of-confidence-multi-year-contract to C Salvador Perez (who is currently on the 60-day DL) this past off-season, the Royals may not look at Zunino here but I think the talent is too much to pass on. If both catchers work out, then they have a huge trade chip to get that starter they have wanted so badly. Pencil in Zunino for catcher starting as early as 2014.

Targets: I have heard a lot of chatter about Fried and Giolito here and they scouted Almora and McCullers extensively as well. Would LOVE it if Correa fell but I do not think he will.

6.) Cubs- Kyle Zimmer- College RHP. Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has stated that the Cubs will look to take a pitcher with the 6^th pick in the draft. Fingers will be crossed to have Gausman on the board but will be pleased to take RHP Kyle Zimmer out of San Francisco University. Baseball America ranks Zimmer as the #1 college pitching prospect in the draft and for good reason, given his dominant season. What I like most about Zimmer is his intrigue given his background. Not only did he have a flat-out dominant year for SFU this year, throws four above-average pitches including a well-located high-90s fastball, but he has only been pitching as a full-time starter for two years (recruited as a second baseman). Talk about upside. Cubs get a great prospect here and a future SP1.

The Cubs are looking closely at Max Fried and Albert Almora as well and will hope Zunino somehow slips.

7.) Padres- Deven Marrero- College SS. Word around the league is that the Padres will take a hitter here and have been linked to toolsy OF prospect Albert Almora. Despite a season that saw Deven hit only .268, this Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year could be a near-gold glove SS now, if playing in the bigs.

Marrero was a consensus top-5 pick before his spring season saw his average drop but Marrero was never going to be drafted for his bat. This is an elite defender, the slickest fielder in the draft, and one who hit .315 just a year ago against good competition. Limited power and speed but could be a good #2 or #7 hitter (#3 if he proves he can hit .300 as a pro) and a multiple Gold Glove winner at shortstop. Let’s put it this way—I would take Rey Ordonez with a top-10 pick for his defense and Marrero could be a better hitter.

This is a reach here, yes. Other players the Padres have been tied to include: Albert Almora, Max Fried, Carlos Correa, Lucas Giolito

8.) Pirates- Albert Almora- High School OF. I think the Pirates would have jumped on Marrero here but go with the best player available and a five-tool star in the making in Albert Almora. The Pirates have some unbelievable talent in the minors and Almora joins Bell and Marte as a future dominating outfield for the Bucs.

Not only is AA the best player available here but one the Pirates have had on their radar as well. Almora has gone as high as 5^th in some mock drafts and not many project him to fall further than this. Pirates take him while they can.

Targeting: Deven Marrero, Gavin Cecchini, Max Fried, Courtney Hawkins, Andrew Heaney, Richie Shaffer

9.) Marlins- Lance McCullers- HS RHP. I liked the Marlins taking Styker Trahan here but Stryker has not had a good enough spring to keep him in the top half of the first round. This is far enough for the best high school pitcher in the draft to fall. Explain something to me: This was the consensus #1 draft pick a year ago and after Lance’s junior season. What has he done since? As a senior, he did not allow an earned run to score until the playoffs and finished the year with the following line: 13-0, 0.18 ERA, 140 Ks in 77.1 innings against good competition and led his high school team to the state semis.

McCullers also has a fantastic live arm—running his fastball to the high-90s and even touching 100 MPH. Lance also features a change up and a curve that absolutely baffled his competition because of their good movement and stark speed differential relative to the fastball. The reason Jr. has fallen is due to one simple thought from some scouts: That Lance McCullers Jr. is not a starting pitcher long term.

The Marlins get an absolute steal here and one of the premier talents in the draft. Look for McCullers—a tireless worker and student of the game—to end up being one of the best players from this class by the end of the day.

Also targeting Max Fried, Andrew Heaney, David Dahl, Marcus Stroman.

**I think a great surprise in this draft could be the Marlins taking Stroman here. The Marlins are playing for the next couple years. They could use him in a weak bullpen and then stretch him back out to a start if they so desire. Let’s see if I’m right.

10.) Rockies- Lucas Giolito- HS RHP. The Rockies have taken a pitcher in the first round each of the past six years and have not shied away from high schoolers. They take a chance on another high school pitcher with outstanding stuff but some risk like they did in taking Tyler Matzek with the 11^th pick overall in 2009. They will not be concerned with Lucas’ injury. Rockies get a potential ace and the highest potential upside of any pitcher in the 2012 draft.

Note: If Giolito can prove that he is healthy and throwing well before the draft, I believe the Royals will take him at #5. He is trying to do just that (http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2012/05/giolito-throws/) but we will see how much teams buy in to the unauthenticated video and relative unknowns about his injury, status, and commitment to UCLA—a college who does a very good job at getting its recruits to campus.  I bet you that the “inside source” is his father, by the way.

Also targeting: Courtney Hawkins, Max Fried, David Dahl, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton

11.) Athletics- Marcus Stroman- College RHP. Market inefficiencies are Billy Beane’s thing. Also, drafting college pitchers in the first round. The last time the A’s took a high schooler in the first round was in 2001 with Jeremy Bonderman. In the 24 picks since, 7 were college righties. Stroman is a “market inefficiency” because of his size, despite having the best assortment of plus pitches in the draft. At 5’9”, Stroman still generates a high-90s fastball, a good change, cutter, and throws the best slider of anyone in the draft.

Because of his stature, most believe Marcus will be a reliever at the next level but for those who believe he can stay as a starter, they will pay to get him. Stroman led all of Division I in strikeouts and finished second in strikeouts per nine innings. He maintained a 5.23 K/BB ratio to go along with a 2.39 ERA as a starter against strong ACC competition. A’s get a steal here. If Marcus Stroman were 6’5”, he would be the consensus #1 pick in the draft. Could go Hawkins or Heaney here but opt for the results, arsenal, and success of Duke’s finest.

Given the A’s tendencies to go with college players, I am 99% confident the pick here will be one of: Stratton, Heaney, Wacha, Stroman, Shaffer, or one of the big 3, if they fall.

12.) Mets- Well, here we go. This is the pick we will all be on the edge of our seats for on June 4^th. Given how I see the first 11 picks going, the Mets will look at lefties Heaney and Fried as well as high school power-speed uber-athlete Courtney Hawkins. They could look at college mashers Richie Shaffer or Victor Roache but I believe the new regime will shy away from each of their prospective risks. A number of drafts have the Mets linked to Hawkins here but one of two things will happen, in my mind: Hawkins gets taken by the Rockies or Athletics leaving one of the high-upside high schoolers available to the Mets (think Almora, Giolito, Cecchini) or something like this scenario happens where Max Fried falls further than he should and the Mets cannot pass on him. That is why my projection for the Mets first pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft is: LHP Max Fried out of Harvard-Westlake High School, California.

Mets are also targeting: Gavin Cecchini, David Dahl, Courtney Hawkins.

**You will notice the comments get shorter after this point. What I care about the following 22 picks is what it will leave us at #35. If there are 10-12 A+ prospects, there are about 15 more “A” prospects. I am hoping one of them slips to #35 and I think a couple will.

13.) White Sox- Richie Shaffer- College 1B/3B. There have been a lot of ties between Shaffer and the White Sox and management recognizes the impact bat—even if he has to move off of third.

I do not want the Mets to draft Shaffer and I think he will be around. He is not a third baseman and while the hit tool will play anywhere, he is best fit in an organization like the White Sox. Good bat, good power, good eye. Could be a LaRoche-esque 1Bman in a couple years.

For some reason I think this pick is wrong despite the many rumors tying Shaffer to the White Sox. I think it is going to be Heaney or Wacha here instead but I have made my pick and am sticking with it.

14.) Reds- Courtney Hawkins- HS OF. This is far enough for C-Hawk to fall. Reds get another impact bat in the system: an athletic, toolsy outfielder, and one of the best power hitters in the class. Reds will gladly go near, if not over, slot to lure Hawkins away from the University of Texas.

If Fried were not available in this mock, Hawkins is the guy I would have wanted. He is my “1A” in that instance and if Fried is gone, I sure hope C-Hawk is there.

15.) Indians- Andrew Heaney- College LHP. A lot of recent mocks have Heaney in the top-10 because of his outstanding season. I could see that happening. I could also see teams passing on Andrew due to concerns over his size and experience. Indians are a team who have done well with drafting college pitchers and will gladly take the errors of the teams above them and select one of the best college pitchers in all of D-I. Look up this pitcher’s stats…they are ridiculous.

Heaney is another target of mine at #12. If Fried and Hawkins are my 1 and 1a, Heaney is my solid back-up in case both are gone. A great lefty with good stuff and is steadily improving. Could spell Jon Niese in a few years. Indians get a steal at 15.

16.) Nationals- Joey Gallo- High School 3B/1B/LHP. With their first pick in the bottom half of the first round in quite some time, the Nats spring for the best high school power bat in the draft.

I like Gallo a lot and the Nats get a great player here, even if he has been projecting to pick 35 and later.

17.) Blue Jays- Michael Wacha- College RHP. Best player available. Fell because of concerns over ceiling but the Jays get yet another strong pitching prospect to add to the pipeline.

The Mets have been tied to Wacha but I hope they pass on him. This is a better spot for him and the Jays get a nice, safe pick and one who will sign for well under slot.

18.) Dodgers- David Dahl- HS OF. I think this is far enough for Dahl to fall. The Dodgers get a toolsy outfielder who slipped in the draft. Some see Dahl as a top-10 pick but I never did. Still, great value here and a potential 20-20 guy if all goes well. Dodgers have a good track record with developing young outfielders and could see a diamond in the rough with a talented southern outfielder.

Reports are saying Dahl is the Mets pick. I don’t see it and frankly I don’t want it to happen. This is more around where the raw but talented outfielder should be drafted.

19.) Cardinals- Tyler Naquin- College OF. The Cardinals take Naquin (who should go higher but never got that pre-draft momentum) and add a talented college outfielder to their system. Naquin has it all going for him and the Cards will look at him as Beltran’s replacement in short order. Fantastic pick here by the Cards.

I like Naquin a lot. If the Mets were picking down here I would be pushing hard for him.

20.) Giants- Matt Smoral- HS LHP. I have chatted with Giants bloggers and they seem to like Smoral here. While an injury held him back this year and hurt his draft stock, the Giants will look past that and get a very talented high school lefty. Some scouts like him better than Max Fried, even, and the Giants sure do like their young pitchers.

21.) Braves- Gavin Cecchini- HS SS. The Braves could go a lot of directions here but I think they opt for a very talented high school shortstop from the Southeast. Gavin falls way too far here and the Braves gladly oblige and offer slot+ to sign him.

22.) Blue Jays- D.J. Davis- HS OF. While they went under slot to get a safe college pitcher, the Jays take a chance here with one of the more impressive athletes in the class. Jays get a speedster and a bit of a project in Davis but one of the better outfielders in the class. Even if they have to go a bit over to sign him, they will have the ability to do so after taking Wacha with their first pick.

23.) Cardinals- Stephen Piscotty- College 3b/OF. Cards take another hitter…this one from the left side of the infield. Piscotty brings a nice combination of bat, glove, and make-up. While he may lack the flashy upside or consistent dominance of some of the players selected around him, he should be one of the safer bets to be a solid major league contributor.

24.) Red Sox- Chris Stratton- College RHP. Yet again the Red Sox take a college pitcher who inexplicably fell too far. Stratton has great stuff, will be one of the quickest to the majors, and will give the Red Sox some needed pitching depth.

25.) Rays- Ty Hensley- HS RHP. If the Red Sox have the tendency to grab college pitchers who fell too far, the Rays have the same tendency to do so with high school arms. Hensley could go as high as around where the Mets pick but I see him slipping a bit further. Rays get a great live arm here.

26.) Diamondbacks- Stryker Trahan- HS OF/C. All I have heard out of the D-Backs camp is that they prefer bats for their first pick. It could be a Cecchini, Russell, or Dahl if they fall but Arizona takes a shot with Trahan, a consensus top-15 guy before a less-than-ideal spring. D-Backs get a steal if he sticks at catcher.

27.) Brewers- Corey Seager- HS SS/3B. Back to back picks are great. I see the Brewers taking one college player and one high school player who fell too far. Seager is that high school guy—a player some think may have vaulted all the way into consideration for the top ten. Seager is currently a shortstop but scouts think he is a third baseman at the next level. Either way he is a great athlete and a fine prospect to find this late in the first round.

28.) Brewers- Chris Beck- College RHP. After perhaps having to go a bit over slot to get Seager, the Brewers can make that up with Beck—a pitcher who was a top-10 guy before a mediocre spring. Beck is a hard worker, could be a workhorse at the next level, and will be quick to the majors. If the Brewers see Beck on the board, I would think he deserves a long look.

29.) Rangers- Zach Eflin- HS RHP. Injury hurt his stock but the Rangers go off-grid and get a great upside arm here.

Have heard Juan Orlando Barrios here which I would approve of for the Rangers, but am crossing my fingers he is around for our supplemental pick.

30.) Yankees- Brian Johnson- College LHP. I could see the Yankees taking a close-to-the-majors arm like this who fell because he did not dominate as much as his other collegiate counterparts. Johnson is a great athlete, a fantastic hitter, and left-handed. Could be in the majors within 2-3 years and is at worst a LOOGY. With a ceiling of a #2/#3 southpaw, this is the best of the college arms at the end of the first round.

31.) Red Sox- Victor Roache- College OF. The Red Sox yet again get a college player who fell too far. Roache falls because of his injured wrist that has kept him out all spring. In drafting Roache, the Red Sox get the college bat in the class. They gamble that his injury will not affect his bat speed but it is a risk worth taking. Roache was a consensus top-10 draft choice (some, myself included, thought the Mariners would take him at #3. That is how highly he was regarded before the injury).

32.) Twins- Walker Weickel- High School P. Twins get a 6’6” righty with a low-90s fastball who plummeted due to a spring that saw his counterparts simply pitch more effectively. The talent, size, and projection are all there, though, and the Twins are thrilled to see him still on the board.

33.) Padres- Lewis Brinson- High School OF. Great, toolsy outfielder with some of the best speed in the draft (6.4 60).

This is one of the players I really wish will still be on the board at #35.

34.) Athletics- Nick Travieso- High School P. Like Weickel, fell too far and will have to be convinced to sign. Travieso has a great lively arm and fits perfectly into the A’s pitching philosophy. Could see Barrios taken here as well as Brian Johnson, if he falls.

35.) Mets- Clint Coulter- High School C. Coulter, along with Barrios, Mathisen, Brinson, Jankowski, and a couple others, will give the Mets a ton of attractive options at #35. They end up opting for a high school catcher from Washington State. Coulter is an interesting athlete in part because he won his state’s championship as a wrestler but chose to focus on baseball full-time. Athletic and possessing impressive power, Coulter needs work defensively but is a hard worker and an amazing athlete. Mets get one of the best catchers in the draft and finally have a true catching prospect in the system.

I will be glad if the Mets see Coulter on the board and take him. They could go with Texas HS C Wyatt Mathisen here as well but I would prefer Travis Jankowski or Lewis Brinson if they are on the board. Or, if the Mets go pitching, I would want Barrios. Mark my words, though: There will be an “A” prospect here and the Mets will get two players who will instantly jump into their top-10 prospects if they draft well.

Best players I left out of the top 35: Carson Kelly, Travis Jankowski, Addison Russell, Nolan Fontana, Pierce Johnson, Tanner Rahier, Rio Ruiz, Adam Brett Walker, Lucas Sims, Hunter Virant, Kenny Diekroger, James Ramsey.

-----

Reactions after writing this: This was not easy. I am sure I made mistakes on picks and I will be surprised if I get even 1/10 of these correct. I obviously am looking at this as a Mets fan so some of it is undoubtedly wishful thinking (Fried probably does not fall, realistically). However, I put a lot of thought into each team’s selection and all of the selections do make a great deal of sense.

There is more depth to this draft than I realized and while all of the attention will be on the first pick at #12, we have a shot at a true ace, true lead-off guy, catcher of the future…that sort of player…at pick #35 as well. If you are going to watch the draft, be sure to stick around for that second pick the Mets will make. I have a good feeling about that one.

Let’s Go Mets!

--Stephen