Mack Ade - A Financial Look at 2014

Anthony DiComo  - @AnthonyDiComo

Fred also says payroll has zero limitations going forward, and could go back to old heights.

You need to have a business background to understand this. If you read Howard Medgal, he will tell you about the millions of dollars that are due on bank notes in the future. If you listen to Fred Wilpon, he’ll tell you that the team is currently operating debt free. If you understand the business world you will know that they both are correct.

Every asset has a value, thus, the New York Mets are worth a certain amount of money. The owners have borrowed a certain amount of money against that value, but it is far less than the value of the asset. The Mets pay interest on these notes, which do have dates of expiration. What usually happens then is what happened last month… the asset is revalued and the debt is restructured.

Add to this the Madoff mess, which now has a limit placed on it and the Wilpons also benefit from as a past investor who is receiving a larger share of recovery money than expected.

2011 and 2012 were tough years for investors and real estate owners, but those days seem to be past the Wilpons. And, when you add the new evaluations for the media companies that are attached to these investments, you have plenty of operating money.

Payroll wise, Johan Santana ($31mil), John Buck ($6.5mil), Frank Francisco ($6.5mil), Shaun Marcum ($4mil) will be long gone. Right now, the money on the books is $33.55mil.

The Mets currently has $7.75mil tied up with three ARB-1 players, 1B Ike Davis, 2B, David Murphy, and RP Bobby Parnell. Expect attempts to tie one or more of these up into long term, cheap, contracts a la Jon Niese; however, the last you can count on here in 2014 is $4-5mil more spent here on these three.

The next wave of ARB-1 players are four: SP Dillon Gee, SS Ruben Tejada, IF Justin Turner, and OF Mike Baxter. Right now, only Tejada can be considered safe either being traded or DFA’d before the 2014 season.

Let’s say all the above mentioned players remain a Met and go through this process. We still will have a 2014 payroll below $50mil and there will be plenty of money to compete with anyone during the trading/free agent season next year.

We’ve talked so often that 2014 was our target.

Well, it turn out to be the same window that this team will financially return as well.

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          There’s no reason to run to the Internet and link up to the projected 2014 free agent list.

         

          Yes, there are some interesting OF names on the list (Jason Kubel, David Murphy, Delmon Young, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran), but don’t be surprised your future Mets outfield doesn’t come via a trade for a couple of guys in their last (2014) year of an old contract.

          It looks like the Mets will have the money to create a ‘sign-and-trade’ situation with players-clubs-agents… and can deal up a decent package of prospects dominated by the 12-15 lower level SPs that dominated St. Lucie, Savannah, and Brooklyn last year.

          Some examples…  Toronto’s Jose Bautista… Minnesota’s Josh Willingham or CWS Alex Rios.

          Or… what about another direction?  Like Detroit’s Justin Verlander.

         

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We lost a couple of great writers here (Jack Flynn and David Rubin) simply because they grew sick and tired of the way the team they loved was being operated by. Jack was our editor and David was my right hand, but both simply hate the fact that this team is owned and operated by the guys that wear those suits that weren’t bought in The Men’s Warehouse.  

We, as fans, can’t do a thing about who owns this team. I’m doing everything I can to concentrate my efforts at the General Manager’s office and things going on there.

Hang in there folks… one more year.