Mack Ade – 2013 Prediction – New York Mets

                          Mack Ade – 2013 Prediction – New York Mets

First, let’s go back a few years.

I predicted that the Mets would finish in 3^rd place in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.”

I then predicted they would finish 2012 in 4^th place.

(they finished 2^nd in 2008 and 4^th in the other four years)

The Mets had plenty of talent over these years but were plagued with the injury bug throughout each season. Add to this the lack of depth and direction and they simply never were a true pennant contender during this period.

The 2013 Mets contain some really good parts. The team is obviously building around its rotation, similar to the way the San Francisco Giants have won two out of the last three World Series. The Giants have really only one true every day star (Buster Posey), similar to the Mets and 3B David Wright. They have won with dominant rotational pitching and excellent relievers as well.

The 2013 Mets will feature Matt Harvey, who currently projects out as the ace of the staff and a future star within the league. In addition, Jon Niese remains one of the most sought after lefties in the league, both because of his reasonable contract and success in the past. The rest of the rotation will include some combination of Johan Santana, Dillon Gee, Jeremy Hefner, and Shaun Marcum, which ranks it as one of the upper half rotations in baseball.

The exciting part is the future… Zack Wheeler in 2014 and Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard in 2015… but, for now, the Mets will have to settle for just being pretty damn good when it comes to starters.

Moving on to the field, the Mets have one superstar, 3B David Wright. There seems to be some additional positive signs being developed here. SS Ruben Tejada has become a steady, excellent defensive shortstop that shows a remarkable amount of plate patience for a ripe old veteran at 23-years old. 1B Ike Davis was one of the top power hitters in the second half of the season and rookie C Travis d’Arnaud has already showed spring training followers that he’s going to deliver immediate dividends come May.

But, that’s about it here. 2B Daniel Murphy is adequate, but what you saw in 2012 is the best you’re going to get.

Still, the infield on Davis, Murphy, Tejada, Wright, and d’Arnaud, coupled with the current rotation, might be enough if you could add to this a decent relief staff and the typical power and pop you find in a big market playoff team outfield.

Relief wise, whatever was planned didn’t work out. Another horrible multi-year contract was given to closer Frank Francisco who simply never panned out. Because of this, Bobby Parnell is now being asked to walk away from his successful 8th inning roll and become the closer he has failed at becoming before. Past this, you have a handful of kids that haven’t panned out yet (Josh Edgin, Robert Carson, Elvin Ramirez, Jeurys Famila) and a group of aging veterans that were picked up on waivers in hopes of them churning out one more decent year.

This is NOT how great teams build relief staffs. I’ve said this every playoff season. Watch the teams that play deep into the playoffs. They all have stars as the 7th inning guy, the 8th inning guy, and the closer. The 2013 Mets do not have one relief star that would qualify to be on one of those playoff teams.

And now we move on to the outfield. I’m not going to spend any more time here talking about failed prospects, trades that didn’t happen, and the lack of solutions in the pipeline. The fact is that the 2013 Mets outfield is an embarrassment for a team that plays in the largest city and media market in the country. The Mets may be the only team in the past fifty years that went to camp without being able to tell you the name of one starter among these three positions. It was only then, when someone pointed this out to Terry Collins, did he declare that Lucas Duda was the starting left fielder. Only the current quarterback situation on the New York Jets reaches this absurdity.

Making a prediction as to where this team will finish in the NL East really comes down to where you think the Mets and Marlins will finish. I’m not going to waste my time going player to player on Washington, Philadelphia, or Atlanta. All three are far superior teams both in current pitching and on the field hitters.  What’s left are the Mets and Marlins who will finish fourth and fifth in this division.

Frankly, I like what I see in the kiddie corp. down in South Florida. One, they aren’t going to be distracted by anyone in the stands and there is absolutely no pressure on them in the field.

At the same time, I see a complete implosion of the Mets. There’s a good chance that this rotation never gets going and you could see a complete meltdown by the all-star break. Fingers will begin to be pointed, players will speak anonymously to beat reporters, and owners will visit clubhouses, all resulting in more disarray, continued loses, and heightened disconnect by all parties.

Will Terry Collins survive? No.

Will Sandy Alderson survive? Yes, and ‘plan B’ will be implemented a little earlier than expected. Every prospect will bump a level, existing contracts will be first financially eaten and then unloaded for prospects, and there’s a good chance that the Mets will wind up with one of the top five picks in the 2014 draft.

What comes out of this is a small base of decent players… Wright, Davis, Tejada, Harvey, d’Arnaud, Wheeler, Niese, Parnell, Edgin, Gee… followed by a smaller list of new prospects… Flores, Montero, Gorski, Mazzoni, den Dekker…

What’s left are ten openings that will determine whether this is the “future” team we have all written about here or are the Mets just becoming another of the many excuses people like us call ‘professional’ sports franchises.

2014 Needs: Two outfielders, one starter, and three relievers… quality guys bought or traded for early on.

My prediction for 2013 is 66-96 – last place

But it’s my prediction for 2014 that is now in jeopardy unless the Mets get their act together soon.