Q and A - From Olt to Stanton

Question from Michael Scannell:

Hey Mack,

If I post this question to you it will just be redundant from my last post.  I didn't get the feedback I was looking for so I wanted to ask you directly about it.

If the prevailing wisdom is that Stanton is going to be on the market, the Mets should obviously pursue him.  Also, I'm confident that they'll at least make a play for him as was evident by their pursuit of Justin Upton.  I'm wondering what you thought the wisdom would be of stockpiling young talent to make a trade for him.

I'm already looking at contending teams that will need pitching at the deadline.  For starters, I could see the Cards in the mix for pitching.  They have a lot of pitching in the minors but likely not enough at the MLB level.  Deadline comes around, Shaun Marcum is pitching well and the Cards want him.  Sandy could do what he does and hold out for the best deal.  Mets ask for and get Michael Wacha and Kolten Wong.  Wacha is expendable as he is their fourth best pitching prospect (Miller, Martinez, and Rosenthal) and while Wong is talented he profiles as not much more than a solid regular.  Same goes for Santana and Texas, who will also need pitching.  Say the deal brings back Olt and Martin Perez.

 I think the inclusion of Olt and Perez might seem like a lot right now, but the Rangers have already let it be known that they realize they’ll need pitching and that they don’t want to be known as ‘the team that used to be good’.  As we get closer to the season, there are even rumblings that an Olt/Chamberlain trade is being discussed with the Yanks.  If that’s the case, a healthy Santana (likely coupled with a reliever) at the deadline should return Olt +.  Perez’s prospect value has dropped lately and a team like the Rangers that is desperate to win could be held hostage. 

I’d also like to note that while the Cards and Rangers have been built a lot from within – either through player development or scrapheap signings – both teams have been known to trade multiple prospects in the past for players they felt would make an impact.  The Cards made big deals of prospects for Mark Mulder and Matt Holliday and the Rangers recently (2011 deadline) traded both Robbie Erlin (#34 midseason Baseball America when dealt) and Joe Weiland for ONLY reliever Mike Adams. 

I also tried to evaluate these moves in terms of what this FO seems to look for in trade.  They got Wheeler for a few months of Beltran and d’Arnaud/Syndergaard for a 38 year-old pitcher.  Sandy even held out for a top prospect for Hairston last deadline – this is their MO.  I see no reason that they couldn’t dangle two very good starters (assuming healthy) at the deadline and pick up multiple prospects for each.

All of a sudden the Mets would have Olt, Wacha, Wong, and Perez to build a deal around for Stanton.  The Marlins fill 3B, 2B, and add pitching.  The Mets transform their lineup by jettisoning two pitchers who are expected to be here next season.

What do you think? Am I out to lunch to think the team should acquire pieces specifically to flip to Miami?  Am I overvaluing Santana and Marcum?  Neither would be as in demand as Beltran was, but they are pitchers and neither return in question equate to Wheeler.

What’s the worst-case scenario, that the Mets acquire all four and Stanton stays in Miami or goes to another team?  That’s still 4 top 100 prospects added to the farm.  Maybe they get traded in other moves.  Maybe Olt shifts to LF and becomes a power threat for the Mets.  Maybe there are two other teams that want pitching and the Mets line up better with them.

I’m just looking ahead to next offseason and I know the Mets need a player like Stanton if he’s available.  I think that making deadline deals that increase their flexibility in order to be positioned to deal for him is the prudent way to go.  I suppose I’m trying to eat my cake and have it too – putting my eggs in one basket while not really doing so….finding a way to grab the big ticket without having to deplete (or even touch) the current farm system.   Do we think it’s bad business to get married to the idea of adding one player and making too many moves to get him when there is no guarantee it will work out? 

- Mike

Mack:  

Morning, Michael. I'm glad you didn't spend much time on this.

I think you’re on the right road, though you might be a little aggressive in the return you have outlined.

Mid-season trades for last year existing contracts usually mean that the team trading the old contract will still have to eat a portion of the money owed. There’s no reason for you and I, or anyone else, to speculate on what percentage that will be. The Mets can afford to pay up to 100% of that amount since they were going to have to pay it anyway.

Next, is the player return, and asking for two quality prospects seems aggressive. The template here seems to be the Carlos Beltran-Zack Wheeler trade. This is a perfect example of a good veteran that can help you win a pennant for a kid that can’t break through and help you right now anyway.

Being specific on Mack’s Mets can cost you in the comments section J I didn’t even specifically say Mike Olt (used the term “Olt-like) and the entire conversation turned in the direction of that player.

I’m not going to try and figure out what players/teams the Mets would target. Frankly, we’re half a year away from knowing who’s six games down in the loss column and in need of a pitcher.

What we do know is Johan Santana (there will be around $18mil left to be paid on his contract), John Buck ($3.25mil), Frank Francisco ($3.25mil), Shaun Marcum ($2mil), and Brandon Lyon ($375K) will and should be available. Will they all be both productive and healthy? Probably not, but there will be multiple opportunities to secure at least two quality outfield AAA/AA prospects that could finish the 2013 season in the minors, be promoted to Queens in September for a look-see, and brought to camp in 2014 to win a starting slot in the lineup.

My goals would be simple here… use some combination of these five guys to get me my outfield.

Now on to Stanton.

The first think you need to do is make the phone call and ask if this guy is available to you, a rival team in the same division. If the answer is anything close to yes (meaning anything other than ‘hell no’) spend the rest of the conversation trying to find out key positions Miami would be looking for to close a deal for Stanton. They obviously would want a quality outfielder to replace the loss of Stanton and that would have to be one of the players you just secured in these mid-season trades for old contracts.

Past that, this screams to be a 5-1 deal, which is fine for me. The Mets have a ton of quality young pitching that will never get an opportunity to play in the Mets rotation. They also have players like Wilmer Flores, Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, Cory Mazzoni, Wilfredo Tovar, Juan Centeno and Aderlin Rodriguez that are close to being ready for the majors.

The pitcher pool in this transaction could be Domingo Tapia, Jake deGrom, Tyler Pill, Chase Huchington, Logan Verrett, Hansel Robles, Luis Tapia, Gabriel Ynoa, Rainy Lara, Luis Cessa, Miller Diaz, and Julian Hilario.

In closing, your only chance of pulling off a trade of minor leaguers for a quality player like Stanton is finding someone on that team that is both nuts and has the power to do it J