Michael Scannell - Buyers AND Sellers:Looking Ahead to the Trade Deadline Part Two

Another post and more speculative trade proposals.  In keeping with the idea of selling off players that are not part of the Mets' long-term plans and using additional minor league depth to acquire established MLB talent, I'm going to analyze two different trade proposals.

To Mets: Castellanos, Smyly
To Tigers: Buck, Francisco, Feliciano

This presumes that the Tigers are an essential lock for a playoff spot and don't address their catching and relief needs other ways.  It also presumes that both Francisco and Feliciano are healthy and producing when the deadline is closer in sight.

Why this works for the Tigers:

The Tigers have one of the best teams in baseball, both their lineup and starting pitching staff are playoff-quality.  They do have weaknesses, however, and the catcher position is one of them.  The players they currently have on the roster are not getting the job done behind the plate.  Buck can move onto the Detroit roster and immediately help.  He has power and can drive in additional runs as well as handle the Tigers' stellar pitching staff.  Buck could be a perfect fit for the Tigers, especially if the market for catchers at the deadline is thin.

The Tigers also have a need for relief pitching and they are well aware of it - http://tinyurl.com/c8e8sdc.  
They've also had catching problems for a few seasons now and even had interest in Buck going back to 2010.  Given what Buck is producing now, the Tigers would benefit from his addition to the club.  As far as the relief pitching that is needed, the Tigers need a competent closer, somethng the Mets can provide in Francisco.  Castellanos has been bandied about as a potential trade bait to acquire a closer for the Tigers.  Francisco himself might not be enough to get Castellanos straight up, however the combo of Buck and Francisco might be enough to get Castellanos in the deal.  Smyly is pitching out of the bullpen currently.  To ease his loss in the bullpen, the Mets can add Feliciano to round out the trade.  

For the Tigers, the future is now.  They aren't looking to build a long-term winner, they already have one.  They'd be likely to trade a couple of young players to fill immediate needs.

Why this works for the Mets:

The Mets aren't making the playoffs this year and Buck's, Francisco, and Feliciano's contracts are up at the end of the year.  Selling them off to a contender is the best option and a return of Castellanos and Smyly is a pretty attractive one for players who are in the long run spare parts.  Buck is presumably dealt when d'Arnaud is ready so there is no loss there.  Parnell is the Mets closer, meaning Francisco would likely serve as the 8th inning guy, a job that I think belongs to Jeurys Familia now.  Feliciano could be replaced by Adam Kolarek, Darin Gorski, or even Tim Byrdak is he return healthy this summer.  The loss to the Mets is minimal; the return is a potential starting LHP and an OF with loads of talent.  This is a no-brainer trade to me if the Mets could make it.  Once Smyly comes over, I'd move him to the back of the starting rotation immediately.  His acquisition can either a) round out the rotation with a 2nd lefty or b) make Niese available as trade bait.

Nick Castellanos is a Top 25 prospect in all of baseball and leads the Mets to the next deal:

To Mets: Stanton
To Marlins: Castellanos, Montero, Plawecki, Flores

This presumes that the Marlins will move Stanton and that Montero and Plawecki have survived their inevitable promotions.

Why this works for the Marlins:

Things are so bad in Miami that they've had to close part of the stadium because no one is going to the games.  The idea that they have to hold onto Stanton in order to keep interest in the team is a farce.  The best thing for the organization would be to deal him for multiple major league ballplayers.  A package of Castellanos, Montero, Plawecki, and Flores would be a solid haul for the club.  Castellanos would be added to the future OF including Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick; he could also find himself hitting cleanup on a young and revamped Marlins team in 2014-15.  The Marlins already like him, evidenced by their interest in trading for him during the offseason - http://tinyurl.com/clnbo6u.  Montero is one of the best Mets' pitching prospects and would fit in well with Fernandez, Turner, Nicolino, and Heaney.  Assuming Plawecki makes his way to AA this year and continues his torrid pace, he could easily be considered a Top 10 or even Top 5 catching prospect in all of baseball.  Flores is a very good hitter who can fill in the gap at 3B the Marlins currently have as well.  All four players project as at least MLB regulars if not stars.  The longer that Miami holds onto Stanton, the more his trade value goes down.  This 4-1 trade could be huge for them.

Why this works for the Mets:

They get Stanton.  Do I have to write more?  Okay...Castellanos is no loss because he was acquired for spare parts and Stanton plays the same position as he does; Stanton is easily the superior player.  Plawecki is blocked by d'Arnaud and has more value to the Mets as trade bait than with the team.  With regard to Montero, the Mets understand that they are going to have to move one of their Big 3 RHP in the minors (Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Montero) if they want to add a bat as powerful and Stanton.  I settled on Montero because while I think he can be a good SP2 on a contending team, I feel Wheeler and Syndergaard are superior pitchers.  Finally, Flores is a 3B and he's blocked by Wright.  I know the Mets are trying him out at 2B, however I would prefer to trade him to a team in need of a 3B and acquire another 2B.

2014

Ca: d'Arnaud (0.5)
1B: FA (12)
2B:
3B: Wright (20)
SS: Tejada (2)
LF: Gordon (10)
CF: FA (15)
RF: Stanton (10)

SP1: Harvey (0.5)
SP2: Niese (5)
SP3: Wheeler (0.5)
SP4: Smyly (0.5)
SP5: Syndergaard (mid-season promotion) (0.5)

The players' 2014 salaries are in parentheses next to their names.  I'm assuming that a veteran FA 1B like Morneau would cost $12M, Tejada will get about $2M in arbitration, a FA CF like Choo would command $15M, and Stanton will get about $10M in his first arbitration year.  Obviously these numbers do not reflect any potential extensions that the team might give out.  

If the Mets are able to pull off the Detroit deal but are unable to flip Castellanos for Stanton, he might still have a home in NY's OF.  If they can pull it off, they'd be looking at a lineup in the neighborhood of $75M, only 1 glaring hole to fill at 2B, money to spend and a lot of other pieces to trade.  After these few deals, the Mets would still have Duda, Davis, Valdespin, Gee, Puello, Flores, and many minor league players to make trades from.  Heck, if Marcum is straightening himself out after having so much time off (as his last start suggests) even he might be able to bring a decent return from a contender desperate for pitching.