Between now and the trade deadline, I'm going to periodically write about potential deals for the Mets to make. I'm not going to focus on trades every week, I'll write about them as they seem relevant or make sense - baseball is fluid, as is the value of certain players and if I wrote about every trade idea I have I'd make myself dizzy.
This week I'm looking at a 3-team deal that moves Daniel Murphy out of town and brings in a new OF. I see the trade breaking down as:
To Mets: Alex Gordon
To Dodgers: Daniel Murphy
To Royals: Joc Pederson, Cory Vaughn, P
This presumes that the Royals are out of it and the Dodgers are close enough to keep pushing - they've already spent too much money to admit a season is lost in June/July.
Why it works for the Dodgers:
The Dodgers have had interest in Murphy going back to December of 2011 - http://tinyurl.com/bb3w4cm. They have had and still have the need of a solid, regular 3B. Murphy could fill that need (his transition to 2B notwithstanding) as 3B is his original and natural position. He would give the Dodgers a reliable and professional hitter and at a reasonable cost. Moving Joc Pederson might seem like a lot given what he has done so far in his minor league career. However, as I touched on in last week's post, he appears to have no future in LA due to Kemp, Crawford, Ethier, and Puig being on the depth chart ahead of him. The Dodgers would be addressing a major hole in their lineup at the cost of a redundant player.
Why it works for the Royals:
Alex Gordon is an All-Star. He hits well, gets on base, has some power, and is a Gold Glove OF. He's the type of player that teams build around and would avoid trading at all costs. However, the Royals are a small market team and keeping a player of Gordon's value long-term will likely be prohibitively expensive for them. His extension runs through 2015 with a player option for 2016. He's due $10M next year, $12.5M in 2015, ad $12.5M in 2016. Given what he offers a team, I think it's likely that if he is still in Kansas City at the end of 2015 he will decline his option to hit the open market as it will be his one chance to get a huge payday.
Trading him earlier rather than later should give the Royals a greater return as it gives the team trading for him more time of control and more time to work on an extension of their own. Joc Pederson is tearing the cover off the ball at AA and should be ready by Opening Day 2014. He has a similar skill set to Gordon and could take his place in LF. Vaughn is an average OF prospect who could also be ready in 2014, taking over from Jeff Francouer after his contract expires. Francouer is an offensive black hole who is currently OPS'ing under .600. I'm sure Cory could easily be an improvement over Jeff and for 1/10th the cost. As far as what pitcher is sent over, take your pick. It would be any one of the Mets' young RH pitchers not named Wheeler, Montero, or Syndergaard. This young pitcher would help replenish the depth that was traded to Tampa Bay. By replacing Gordon and Francouer with Pederson and Vaughn (as well as add a young pitching prospect), the Royals would free up almost $17M in payroll. They need financial flexibility, as they will need to extend Moustakas, Hosmer, and Cain and they'll likely want to be able to afford some decent pitching.
Why it works for the Mets:
To put it bluntly, they'd essentially be trading Daniel Murphy for Alex Gordon, a big win for the Mets. Cory Vaughn is a nice player who has been hitting well at AA. He may very well turn into a solid MLB regular but he likely won't be a star. Also, I don't think he fits into the team's long-term plans anyway so he's not really of much consequence. Ditto on the pitcher included - the Mets have a glut of Rh pitching prospects and we talk all the time how some of them will HAVE to be dealt as they will be redundant with no place on the Mets' big league roster. We know some of them will be traded and likely for an OF - this is one of those deals. The only player of consequence heading out of town is Murphy and Gordon is clearly superior to him. He can hit anywhere btw 1-3 in the lineup and is an impact player to add to Wright. Murphy is a nice complimentary player that could help a lineup that is already solid, but he's not an impact hitter. With the Mets needing some some real talent in the order, they're going to have to trade some of the players they have now. Murphy is expendable and finding another 2B to pick up his production shouldn't be impossible, especially given that this trade leaves almost all of the Mets' best trade chips still in the system.
If the Mets were to make this trade (or one similar to it), they could then sign one of the top free agent OF (Choo, Ellsbury, etc.) as well as a veteran 1B (Loney? Morneau?) in the offseason. Very quickly the lineup would go from having 1 position filled (Wright) to 6 (Choo, Wright, Gordon, Morneau, Tejada, and d'Arnaud) filled for OD next year very easily. I left off Tejada for the current lineup and hesitantly included him for 2014 as I feel he's like Murphy - a great lineup 1-7 could live with Tejada hitting 8th and playing a solid SS. With the lineup the way it is now, he's just another part of the problem.
2014
Ca: d'Arnaud
1B: FA
2B:
3B: Wright
SS: Tejada
LF: Gordon
CF: FA
RF:
SP1: Harvey
SP2: Niese
SP3: Wheeler
SP4:
SP5: Syndergaard (mid-season promotion)
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I'm a very big Alex Gordon fan, which I'm sure the Royals are as well. We might have to give up a little more than that, but something to that effect would be a great trade, one however that I have no confidence that Sandy will make since Alex Gordon is getting into the years where his contract starts to get expensive and I have zero confidence that the mets will pursue anyone that isn't looking for a minor league invitation to camp.
ReplyDeleteIf Alex Gordon was on our team right now, I would be secure knowing Sandy would bring back some top flight prospects in a deal, but his track record is not very good at bringing in top established ML players.
I love the idea and this is def the type of player(s) we should be targeting, a la Chase Headley, etc. but you and I both know that they will not be on the Mets any time soon. When they are on there last legs and looking for an invitation to ST, that's when we'll strike.
P.S. I hate being so negative, but its very difficult to feel good about this team right now. Harvey & Niese just pitched, so we have to wait another 4-5 days before we can hope for a win and with the draft coming up and a clear cut top prospect going to be available for us at #11 and knowing we're going to pass up on that player to get some HS kid that is expected to be drafted in the comp round and is 5-6 years away from maybe contributing.
Let's go Mets!
Tomorrow's Part Two touches on another acquisition and also includes a payroll total. The Mets can field a very competitive team for less than $100M.
DeleteThe pessimism with the FO seems to run in waves. First when Alderson took over and did nothing for months we as fans were frustrated. Then we had the high of getting Wheeler for Beltran when it seemed he'd only be worth a B prospect or two and Sandy was hailed as a genius. Then the 2012 season sucked and the frustration grew as we thought he'd only get JP Arencibia and Gose for Dickey. Again, Alderson pulled a rabbit out of his hat again, getting Buck, d'Arnaud, and Thor and we loved him again as the plan seemed on track. I don't understand how that pessimism has grown again after not signing Michael Bourn or trading for Upton. Personally, I was never that enamored with Bourn and didn't want him tied up here for 4 years and the potential Upton deal wasn't happening. The Braves had to pay one price for him and the Mets were going to have to surrender their best pitching prospect. Sandy was right to walk away...had that trade gone down I don't know that Upton would be producing the way he is right now. My instinct is that Atlanta is the only team he wanted to be on because he wanted to play with his brother. If the Mets ponied up Wheeler to get him, they'd be without their top pitching prospect and Upton would be here POUTING that he didnt get what he wanted.
DeleteSandy will be patient and when the time is right he'll make his move(s). We know the Mets are talking to Colorado and Miami about their OFers. That's not to say one of them will definitely be wearing blue and orange but it does show that they recognize the team's shortcomings and will address them when they can. I don't want a front office that signs the best of what's available just because its there, I want a FO that targets what's needed over the long-run and gets what's needed. We already had the former with Omar and that's how the team got saddled with ridiculous contracts for Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo.
Gordon will only cost $10M, 12.5M, and $12.5M.....that's not outrageous at all. There is plenty if room to spend even if the Mets only go up to what they're at this year. Santana (25.5) + Bay (15) + Francisco (5) alone coming off will open up $45M.
ReplyDeleteYou and I both know that, but what contract has Sandy signed for the Mets that is more than 2 years and more that $6m per year? Gordon will be viewed as to long of a contract and too much money remaining. Ellsbury will either get injured and be viewed as an injury risk or won't get injured and asking for too much money, same with Choo.
DeleteWe're obviously going to have to pay more than any other team since why would any free agent choose to play here over any other team outside of money, so the only way to obtain talent is by trade until the stigma is gone. That means we're going to have to give up top talent in order to do so, which makes me nervous. I suspect next years payroll will be in the $70-$75 m area, which would mean we had a pretty big offseason.
SA just doesn't believe in long term, big money contracts, so we'll sign a series of 1 year deals, maybe in a 2 year contract here or there for the really good offseason pickups, but otherwise I don't see them making any type of splash in free agency, its just not what they believe in. That where my pessimism comes from.
Fair enough, but what players out there have been worth giving those contracts to the last couple of years, especially in light of the Wilpon's self-inflicted financial problems? They ponied up for Wright for a lot of money and for many years. Gordon only has 2 years left on his deal, something that would fit right I to Sandy's thinking. I actually think Gordon would be the sort of target Sandy would want - he plays here 2-3 years until Nimmo is ready.
ReplyDeleteI see Choo getting a 4-year deal as he'll turn 32 during next season. Again, I could see him getting a deal at about $60M total, not cheap but not exorbitant either.
I get the pessimism, I just don't think this FO has turned it's back on sure fire players. The team will be built on a combination of a few things - 1-2 long-term contracts (including Wright), a few mid-range contracts, and a few pre-arbitration and arbitration players.
I'm sort of with Ryan right now...
ReplyDeleteI have to see Sandy step up before I believe in this front office anymore.