Mack Ade – Morning Report – 6-5-13

Bill James on the lack of minor league baseball teams trying to win games:

“The system that develops when each individual follows his selfish needs is often an inefficient system. This is just another example of it. The system that develops as a consequence of each team trying to fully develop all of their own talent is in many ways parallel to systems that are developed in other areas ... This is probably a bad example, but there are few things uglier than a franchise strip [mall] ... You think about why that happens, it's each one trying to get your attention creates a mess when you put it all together ... It's not that anyone's saying "Let's build an ugly restaurant." The ugliness results from everybody competing for attention ... If you didn't have teams assigned to organizations, you would have more freedom to get committed minor league pennant races where there's a real focus on winning. I think it's very difficult to sell a product where the players don't care about winning. You go to minor league games, and you know there's not that much focus on winning, because things aren't done the way they would be done if they were focused on winning.” LINK

See, I don’t have a problem with this. According to this story, I should have left Noah Syndergaard in during his last outing past the five innings he threw and gave up two runs. That’s utter bullshit at the developmental stage. He was struggling out there and there was no reason to let him add to his problem by running up his pitch count. James seems to want us to go back to the days of barnstorming when major team franchises weren’t affiliated with minor league teams. And you thought I was a fossil. 

Bill Madden says the Mets may want to rethink spending big bucks in the 2013 FA market:

It is a proven fact that most free-agent contracts of five years or more to players 30 or over are bad investments, and it’s getting to the point where almost all big-money free-agent contracts — where in reality clubs are paying for players’ past performances on other teams — are risky business. Let’s just take a look at the biggest contracts in this past winter’s free-agent class and how they’re working out — we’ll exclude Zack Greinke (six years, $147 million) who missed a month of the season with a broken collarbone. (All stats are as of Friday.) LINK

                You may want to read this one.

John Harper‏@NYDNHarper -  Scout who saw Mets' Noah Syndergaard in last start, rain-shortened 2 1/3 perfect IP, 2k's for St. Lucie:  "Really good. Harvey-Wheeler good.''

Okay, I’m going to get into some shit here with Scannell and Soto, but I need another year out of this guy before I drink the Kool-Ade. I used to go bonkers about all these phenoms at the A and A+ level. Here’s a list of some of the guys that scouts were paid to come and see pitch (and ths is just since 2007):

Mark Cohoon (2008 – Brooklyn, 9-2, 2.15… 2010 – Savannah, 7-1, 1.30), Dylan Owen (2007 – Brooklyn, 9-1), Roydrick Merrick (2008 – Brooklyn, 3-0, 1.49), Daniel Carela (2010 – Brooklyn, 2-1, 1.82), Chris Hilliard (2010 – Brooklyn, 9-1, 3.74), Nicholas Waechter (2008 – Savannah, 2-0, 2.91), Jimmy Johnson (2009 – Savannah, 1-1, 1.09), Jim Fuller (2010 – Savannah, 8-3, 1.93), Doak Tomasiewicz (2007 – St. Lucie, 5-1, 3.60), Michael Antonini (2008 – St. Lucie, 4-0, 1.84), Jenrry Mejia (2009 – St. Lucie, 4-1, 1.97), Manuel Alvarez (2010 – St. Lucie, 3-1, 0.00), and Darin Gorski (2011 – St. Lucie, 11-3, 2.08).

Now, look at the same period (2007-2011) and see who did well there: 2007 – no one (Bobby Parnell 4.77)…  2008 – Sal Aguilar: 10-3, 3.14… Dillon Gee: 2-0, 1.33… Ryan Coultas: 2.78… Tobi Stoner: 2.68… Manuel Alvarez: 3-1, 2.87… Jenrry Mejia: 2-0, 1.32… 2011 – Collin McHugh: 8-2, 2.89, (Matt Harvey – 4.53, Robert Carson – 5.05).

We can do this all day. Cohoon wound up 8-11, 3.62 with the B-Mets in 2012. Elvin Ramirez was 3-1, 2.36 with Buffalo in 2012, went 5.48 in Queens and now is in the Angels system.

Two points here. First , you’re not seeing many Mets pitchers over the past 6-7 seasons go all the way, did you? You simply can’t get excited about low level stats. The lower levels are filled with fill-in players chosen in late round picks that simply will swing at anything that comes close to the plate. Yes, I’m exaggerating, but facts are facts. The math doesn’t favor the pitcher.

But, point two.

2013… this year… produced some guys at AA that, at this time, look for real:  Rafael Montero: 2.72, Chase Huchingson: 2.10, Jack Leathersich: 1.37, Adam Kolarek: 2.16, Jeff Walters: 2.63… these are the guys I consider the real prospects. They’ve made the jump and are excelling at a level 98% don’t.

You want to speak ceiling? Fine, then we can talk about players like Noah Syndegaard, Domingo Tapia, Rainy Lara, etc. But, you’re going to have to ERA below three at the AA level before you impress me.

That’s your ticket to Queens.


And lastly...

Baseball News Source LINK reports that:

                “The Orioles are in desperate need of pitching and the Rangers would likely be interested as well.”

Neither team would want Shaun Marcum, Frank Francisco, Johan Santana, or Jesus Feliciano… but can we please revisit the return investment the Mets could get if they traded Jon Niese to either of these teams around the all-start break? A player like Niese gets you two quality players this year. You still have a 2014 roation of Harvey, Wheeler, Montero, and Gee and guys like Syndergaard and Tapia come aboard in 2015.

Let’s look at Baltimore. The Orioles have a bunch of outfielders… Nick Markakis (.305 - $15.35mil thru 2014), Adam Jones (.313 - $17.333 thru 2018), Nate McLouth (.297 – FA/2014), Nolan Reinhold (.188, ARB/1) and Chris Dickerson (.309 – pre/ARB). They also have a two year contract with SS J.J. Hardy, leaving 2014-ready SS prospect Jonathan Schoop no place to play.

Would you do Niese for Dickerson and Schoop?