Look to the right of our page to find the current rankings that we have done already
Mack's Mets #12 organizational prospect is......
#12 LHP Steven Matz (LR: #NR)
Bats: R Throws: L
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 192 lb
Acquired: 2009 Rule 5 draft, 2nd Round, Ward Melville HS (New York)
2013: (A) 3-4, 2.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 1.092 WHIP
2012: (R) 2-1, 1.55 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 10.6 K/9, 1.138 WHIP
2011: DNP (Tommy John Surgery Set-back)
2010: DNP (Tommy John Surgery Recovery)
2009: DNP (Tommy John Surgery)
Boy oh Boy has this guy teased us during his career. The former 2nd round pick was suppose to be a can't miss left handed pitching prospect who would anchor the staff for years. A 94-97 mph fastball from the left side, a hard slurve that breaks so perfectly that coaches prefer he keep it rather than change it to a curve or a slide, and a change-up that was top notch for a player coming out of HS. But Matz needed Tommy John Surgery immediately after he signed which delayed his debut. After 15 months of healing Matz tried to crank it back up but suffered a set-back which cost him the 2011 season. He finally got on the mound in 2012 and showed why he has so much potential with 6 great starts in Kingsport, but after 27 months of no pitching Matz got sore and had to be shut down early. He finally seems healthy this season finishing his 15th start of the season last night and the results in Savannah are excellent. The only knock on him so far is that the BB rate is a touch too high but with him giving up less that 7 hits/9 innings and combining that with his K/9 rate the organization is very happy.
Now there is still a bit of concern though non-health wise. Matz IS eligible for the Rule 5 this offseason. One would not think that a team would claim a guy with only 105 total inning pitched in his career. However I don't trust the Marlins or the Astros, two teams who are in heavy re-building stages and feel that, if left unprotected, one of those two might claim him and bring him up right away. It's highly unlikely but the Marlins have done crazier (aka rookie RHP Jose Fernandez)
Morning Chris.
ReplyDeleteI keep a close check on this kid here in Savannah and his arm has held up great throughout the season. Credit Frank Viola for a great program.
That being said, he may only have one or two more outings left in the bucket this season. Let's not test it and write this season off as a huge success.
It's obvious that he will SP1 at Lucy come next spring.
He has to be protected. Just too much upside and some team would take him for sure.
ReplyDeleteHarvBeast, Niese, Wheeler, Matz, Syndergaad. Far in the future I know but it looks good doesn't it?
My other candidate for high upside now that he is healthy again is Fulmer.
When I think about rating prospects I think about how rare their talents are and how hard it would be to replace them. I know I'm in a huge minority but I have him ranked much higher at #2 or #3. If I could only protect two prospects, Syndergaard would be #1. I'm not sure if I would protect d'Arnaud or Matz next. I know guys like Montero are easier to project and safer. I am more comfortable projecting Montero as a #3 or #4 starter than I am projecting Matz as an ace in a normal rotation. I don't think the Mets will have a normal rotation when he gets there. Lefties with his ceiling are very rare, much rarer than outfielders like Puello.
ReplyDeleteRich,
ReplyDeleted'Arnaud is currently on the 40 man roster and is already protected. As for Montero and Syndergaard neither is Rule 5 draft eligible this off-season so they will not need to be added to the 40 man for protection.
Puello is on the 40 man as well(protected)
Major prospects that are eligible for Rule 5 and I believe should be protected are Jacob DeGrom, Matt Den Dekker, Cory Vaughn, and Steven Matz.
Well be putting up a full Rule 5 Draft eligible list up soon.
As for the ranking,
ReplyDeleteMatz has all the tools to be a Top 5 prospect but he has a major injury history that bumped him way down. He's working his way back up for now and if he can finish this season healthy, come back and dominate the Florida State League next year he'll get consideration for Top 5.
He will be protected
ReplyDeletethe only negative on Matz is the strength of the arm over a season/career...
ReplyDeleteI don't know who scouted him (on Long Island) but it was a great pick
I should have explained myself better. I wasn't speaking of actual MLB protection. It is a hypothetical protection. If the rule changed and I was only aloud to protect n number of players who would I protect if n=1, that is my top, and so on.
ReplyDeleteI was just reading Craig Brown's article on Mazzili. I think he has a better method, same results. If your making a trade and a team asks for this prospect or that prospect. You give them the one you believe has the lesser value.
For me if I was making a trade that I felt I needed to make and the other team asked for Matz or Prospect A, I'm giving them Prospect a unless prospect A is Syndergaard. If Prospect A is d'Arnaud I'm undecided. If Prospect A is any other Met Prospect he's going and I'm keeping Matz.
I see him as an Al Leiter type if the injuries are behind him. His arm seemed to get stronger as this year progresses, hopefully a good sign.
ReplyDeleteThis was a great year for him and Viola would have never pitched him every 5 outings unless his arm could take it
ReplyDeleteMack,
ReplyDeleteIt seems like Viola has done a great job there the last couple years. Do you see him getting bumped up next year?