While most Mets fans will either pay this little attention
or will rejoice in replacing a pitcher with a 1-10 record with someone more
talented, I write this to recap Marcum’s season and shed some light on how good
he actually pitched this year…despite what some numbers suggest.
Before doing so, I must explain a couple sabermetric
measurements. The first is a simple concept: How many base runners did Marcum
leave on base? Another way to phrase this: What was his strand rate? The major
league average is something like 72%. In other words, the average pitcher in
the MLB allows a runner to score only 28% of the time. The rest of the time he
gets stranded or is tagged/thrown out.
Marcum’s strand rate was 61.9%.
“Well he just needed to pitch better with runners on then,
right”?
Well, yes and no. Marcum’s career LOB% (Left On Base %) is
74.9%, far above the 61.9% clip this year. This leads me to conclude that
Marcum’s strand rate was more statistical anomaly than indictment of pitching ability.
This also means that it he was bound for a statistical
correction as the season went on.
Which leads me to my next point: How ineffective was Marcum? Even the most
saber-resistant fans understand the importance of defense for a pitcher’s
success. The better fielders behind the pitcher, the more outs they make, and
the better chance the pitcher has at winning the game.
Luckily for fans (not to mention General Managers), there is
a way to quantify the result of batted balls and normalize it for pitchers
across the league. In lieu of my rough comprehension of FIP explaining it to
you, let Fangraphs (a resource every baseball fan should take advantage of:
“Fielding Independent Pitching
(FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a
given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were
league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken
revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not
correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control
over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s
talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control:
strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.
A walk is not as harmful as a homerun
and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these kinds of
differences, presenting the results on the same scale as ERA. It has been shown
to be more effective than ERA in terms of predicting future performance.”
Marcum’s ERA was 5.29. His FIP was 3.66. In other words, one
can interpret FIP and say, “Marcum’s ERA should be 3.66”. Those two numbers,
over larger sample sizes, tend to veer towards one another. The explanation? Marcum’s
starts can be characterized by simple bad luck. He easily could have had an ERA
a run and a half lower than it was when he went on the DL this afternoon just
from the luck of the draw of the way batted balls fall.
“Hmmm well 1-10 is all that matters to me. He should have
pitched better to win. I don’t care about stats. Wins are wins and losses are
losses”.
Right? Sure, we want to win games and a pitcher’s record is
indicative of his effectiveness doing so…right?
This could not be further from the truth.
I think Mets fans are finally starting to come around to
this notion having watched Harvey dominate the National League but have only 7
wins to show for it, while Jon Lester and R.A. Dickey both have more wins
despite sporting ERAs above four and a half (and FIPs well above 4. I’m fair.)
Marcum had some poor starts. I am not denying his
ineffectiveness in a handful of games this year but for every June 14th
(5.2 innings, 6 runs) there was a June 8th (8 innings, 1 run). Want
to hear something crazy? He lost both starts.
In fact, after May 10th up to that June 14th
start, Marcum pitched these games:
6.2 innings, 2 runs
6 innings, 4 runs
7 innings, 2 runs
6 innings, 4 runs
8 innings, 1 run
That’s an ERA of 3.48.
His record for that month+ was 0-4.
For those of you who want to know (or want to learn what
these metrics mean in order to better understand value), consider the following
as an addendum to the above:
His BABIP: .322, well above league average.
His walk rate: 2.41/9
His W.A.R.: 1.3.
His W.A.R. ranking of Mets pitchers: 2nd. Only
Harvey beats him.
Yes, he was a more valuable pitcher according to Wins Above
Replacement than Gee, Niese, Hefner, Aardsma, Hawkins, Torres, and Wheeler. He
was the second most valuable pitcher on the Mets this season. No, you did not
misread that.
-----------------
Shaun, we wish you the best. If I were general manager and I
need more time for some of my young arms, I would absolutely give you another
contract to come pitch in Flushing. Take care.
Sincerely,
At least this Mets fan.
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