Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-20-13 – Mets Core, 2014, Dillon Gee, Starlin Castro, Oakland Catching

Here’s my ‘Mets Core’ so far for 2014 –

Mets (11) – David Wright, Ike Davis, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Bobby Parnell, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia

AAA (14) – Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Logan Verrett, Jake deGrom, Dan Gorski, Eric Goeddel, Adam Kolarek, Jeff Walters, Danny Muno, Alan Dykstra, Cesar Puello, Alonzo Harris, Darrell Ceciliani, Wilfredo Tovar

AA (17) – Domingo Tapia, Rainy Lara, Matt Bowman, Cory Mazzoni, Brett Mitchell, Randy Fontanez, TJ Chism, Hamilton Bennett, Jayce Boyd, TJ Rivera, Matt Reynolds, Kevin Plawecki, Alex Panteleodes, Hansel Robles, Kyle Johnson, Aderlin Rodriguez, Gilbet Gomez

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Loses as of Tuesday morning –

1)      Houston – 82…  2) Miami – 75…  3) White Sox – 74…  4) Cubs – 70…  5) Brewers – 70…  6) Phillies – 69…  7) Twins – 69…  8) Padres – 68…  9) Giants – 68…  10) Angels 68… 11)  Rockies - 68...  12)  Toronto – 67… 13) Seattle – 66…  14)  Mets 66

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I’ve been waiting for the signs that the Mets are throwing in the towel and will begin to finally operate with 2014 in mind. I think the first sign happened on Sunday when a story came out that catcher Travis d’Arnaud would be getting ‘significant time’ behind the plate. Actually, the first sign involved David Wright and was much more subtle. As you have noticed, there is no sign of him in Florida and the official rehab program has still not begun. All reports are that he’s back in New York seeing doctors there, but, trust me, if the team was three games out of first place, Wright would be in St. Lucie getting worked on each and every morning.

No, the team is starting to shut down and this is a good thing. As I mentioned yesterday, and outlined above, the 2014 version of this team will be built around the 11 players I have singled out. This doesn’t mean you won’t see some of the same names we have come to grow accustomed to this season, but, at this point, none are etched in stone.

Take Matt den Dekker. I expect him to be on the 2014 25-man in some capacity, either as a platoon centerfielder with Juan Lagares, or alongside of him in right; however one free agent signing of either Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Beltran, or Jacob Ellsbury could change all that in an instant. Either way, you are going to see a lot of den Dekker come September and he’ll get another chance to prove he can hit MLB pitching,

Past that, it’s not who you will see, but who you may not see. David Aardsma has been being banged around lately and he could probably be a viable candidate to being shut down early. And even though it seems like the Mets are running out of starters, both Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler will continue to have their innings reduced until they are shut down. Among possible additions for the pen would be John Church and Tim Byrdak.

Both Las Vegas and Binghamton will most probably be in their own playoffs in the beginning of September; however, ‘household names’ like Matt Fox, Chris Schwinden, Giancarlo Alvarado, and Mark Cahoon all will be ready for the phone call that would send them to Queens.

I really would like to see this process continue. Give guys like d’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, and Ike Davis all the at-bats they can handle. Continue to showcase Niese and Gee for any possible trade interest to improve on your core. And shut down tired arms that cuold easily wind up with future problems.

 

B-Mets injuries last night:  Darrell Ceciliani out with a turned ankle, Wilfredo Tovar hurt his let wrist, and Cory Vaughn was beaned and had to leave the game.

 

Michael Scannell  on Dillon Gee -

He just keeps rolling.  He has a 2.27 ERA over his last 15 starts (103 innings).  What do you think his trade value us now?  Do you think it's as high as Niese's was last offseason?

              Mack – It’s all in the marketing of the player.

In free agency, it comes from the agents. In trades, it’s the current GM or Asst. VPs. But… and this is a big but (and I’ve been stressing this for a long time)… you are never going to be successful in trading Gee or Niese unless you finally convince the entire league that they will never get your hands on Harvey, Wheeler, or Syndergaard, Until then, everyone will hold out waiting for YOU to cave.

Dillon Gee has about as much flair as Tom Glavine. The difference is all the attention on the Mets goes to the speed ballers. I have absolutely no problems with him being the SP5 in an eventual ‘dream rotation’ of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Mejia, but you’re going to have a much easier time trading for the MLB-ready or MLB-tested players you need, if you are dealing equally tested rotational starters (Niese and Gee) than projected future stars (Montero).

There are a number of teams looking for rental starters for Sept-Oct, and Gee just doesn't fit the profile. Trading pitchers like him usually happen in the off-season. The Mets are down to two decent rentals... Marlon Byrd and John Buck...

I don’t think the Mets have the guts to pull this off right now, though, in the long run, it would be the right thing to do. The Mejia injury really fucked up the soup. His unexpected arrival this year finished off a complete rotation (Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia) to go to camp with and change your target to improvement rather than completion. The arrival of both Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard during the 2014 season would be the trigger to set off a couple of decent trades that could fill in the 25-man holes. Now, we're still back to the completion stage.

 

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Kevin Shelly asked -

Mack,  Looking ahead to the offseason, it's seems to me that we would match up extremely well with the Cubs. They are loaded with position prospects with minimal pitching. They are particularly loaded at SS. Starlin Castro, Javier Baez, Alcantara and Junior Lake. I highly doubt they would move Baez, even for a package built around Wheeler or Noah, but what do you think about the other three?  Don't really know much about Junior Lake but it looks like he has held his own with the bat since his call up. Obviously acquiring Castro would be the blockbuster the fan base will be looking for. What are your thoughts on the Mets search or their future shortstop?

Mack – First, a little history here. The Tribune Company bought the Cubs in 1981 for $20,5mil and sold a 95% share of the team and a 25% share of Comcast SportNet in 2009 to TD Ameritrade for $845mil. Forbes magazine then valued the team in 2013 at $1bil.

                See, you don’t need to win at this business to make money.

                BP Cot estimated the Cubs 2013 salaries at $106,837,810, down from $109,316,00 in 2012. It’s still a far throw from the crazy days of 2010 ($144mil – Soriano, Zembrano, Ramirez, Fukedome, Dempster, Lee, Lilly, Silva)

Chicago may have moved Soriano to the Yankees but they still have to pay him a shit load of money through 2014.  Additionally, they always dump contracts. That’s what they do. They play with their fan base by signing free agents and then dump them a couple of years later.

Kevin, I know Castro is having a Ruben Tejada kind of year (.244 after three years of .300, .307, .283), but I’m sort of worn out on future prospects right now. I’d like to see the Mets fill in a few holes with some established major league starters and Castro is definitely one of them.

The contract is easily affordable ($5.857mil in 2014 up to $10.857 in 2019). He’s 23-years old and has showed a little pop (1066 in 2011, 14/78 IN 2012) as well.

I’ll take the player and the contract and even throw in a secondary pitching prospect.

 

With Travis d’Arnaud staying in Queens, all of a sudden the Mets are catcher heavy. Well, they might want to get on the telephone with Oakland who is down to one healthy backup catcher, who actually has played third base the last two years. Derek Norris went down with back spasms, leaving Josh Donaldson as the only backup available. Donaldson came up as a catcher, but they’re going to need more than that in September. It may not be a bad time to talk Buck deal.