8/15/13

Reese Kaplan - How About Looking In-House For Solutions?

avatar - Reese KaplanWith all of the success that Juan Lagares has had in the majors once given the opportunity to play regularly, everyone has pretty much penciled him in as the only sure outfielder going into 2014. His grace in CF has made him a joy to watch and the converted infielder shows great natural instincts.

Interestingly, the Mets have another center fielder sometimes dubbed “The Human Highlight Reel” in Matt den Dekker. While he still strikes out way too much, he’s gotten his AAA average up to .290 while playing defense that is actually even better than what we’ve enjoyed from Juan Lagares. He’s twice hit as many as 17 HRs in the minors and twice eclipsed 20 steals.

It’s commonplace to watch a player fail to field a position and then shift him around the diamond until you find somewhere he can call home (or where you can hide his suspect glove and range e.g. Wilmer Flores). I don’t know the history, but Lagares came up through the system for the first three years as a shortstop before converting to the outfield. While dreams of a Troy Tulowitzki trade or a Jose Reyes reunion have Mets fans drooling, I’m wondering whether or not moving Lagares back to the shortstop position might be a solution to that dilemma.

There are a number of caveats with this out-of-the-box notion. The first, of course, is whether or not he has the range and arm to handle the position. Flores certainly didn’t. Howard Johnson didn’t. Kevin Mitchell didn’t. Jordany Valdespin didn’t. Justin Turner is only tolerable a game or two a month.

The second is the effect adapting to a new position would have on his offensive game. We’ve all seen players go into batting tailspins when they leave their comfort zone. Lucas Duda is a recent example of someone who posted far better numbers at 1B than he ever did in LF.

The third is the infamous “What outfield?” Eric Young has been playing like the man who was DFA’d by Colorado and the very tired looking Marlon Byrd will be 36 next year. Neither is a shoo-in to have a full time job with the Mets, particularly considering the raises both would be due in arbitration and as a free agent respectively. When you subtract Lagares from the outfield mix then you’re starting completely from scratch once again. That being said, it’s still generally easier to find outfielders than it is productive shortstops.

Matt den Dekker has had problems staying healthy and he’s also taken usually a full year at each level to adjust to the pitching in order to turn in an offensive performance sufficient to keep his glove on the field. If you hand him CF duties next year you would have to expect 150-200 strikeouts and a batting average in the Ike Davis range. Now if you flanked him with the likes of Hunter Pence and Shin Soo Choo then you could live with it, but the Mets have been loath to hand out long term deals which cost them draft picks. The trade market is always a possibility with the team’s surplus of starting pitching and a glut at both 1st and 2nd base.

Entering the Jose Abreu sweepstakes would help matters immensely. He would not cost the team a draft pick, would potentially give them the cleanup hitter they so desperately need and would theoretically make Wilmer Flores a nice trade chip to land a similarly talented young outfielder. At a deal similar to what the Dodgers gave Yasiel Puig he could prove to the be the best bargain of the off season to whatever team lands him. The Mets have to realize that even though Alay Soler didn’t work out, it doesn’t necessarily mean all Cuban ballplayers are overrated. At least Cincinnati, Oakland and Los Angeles might beg to differ.

If you figure that Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jenrry Mejia and Jon Niese are locks for the rotation, with Rafael Montero, Jacob De Grom, Darin Gorski and Noah Syndergaard coming on fast, that makes guys like Dillon Gee trade bait. Mejia has little value on the trade market with off-season surgery scheduled. Niese is the only lefty. Harvey’s going nowhere. Theoretically Wheeler could be moved in the right deal but you’d better be looking at the likes of players the caliber of Giancarlo Stanton or Carlos Gonzalez coming back in return.

If they hang onto Flores, then Daniel Murphy might be in play, particularly with the salary increase he’s due to receive. No one is likely going to give much in return for Duda or Davis. Kevin Plawecki could be a valuable trade chip just as Travis d’Arnaud was for Toronto. Cesar Puello should probably be kept rather than dealing from weakness as his value will be depressed by his Biogenesis suspension.

So there you have it – a team with both player talent and financial resources capable of filling the 1-3 outfield vacancies that will exist come 2014. Thus far the current GM has succeeded in letting a batting champion walk away for nothing, but redeemed himself by the apparent fleecing of the Blue Jays in the R.A. Dickey trade. However, for all the time he’s been on the job, that’s not a lot of conspicuous action. It’s time to see some changes.

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