From - Perrary Thompson -
Some people want to package four prospects to get a CarGo or Tulo. I think that's crazy after finally having a minor league system with at least one strength.
I'd think Sandy needs to trade a proven ML starter, either Niese or Gee, to acquire the young, team controlled, and cheap bat he wants. If the FA market had better options I'd much rather go that route, but it doesn't and the ones it has are not difference makers for the money it'll cost in cash and prospect loss.
This team has a lot of talent, but just as many question marks. SS and first base are issues.
This team has a lot of talent, but just as many question marks. SS and first base are issues.
How would you build the 2014 roster? Do you kill the system for 1 impact talent? Spend widely in free agency? Trade a starter?
My free agent plan is simple. Reinvest the Santana and Bay money into the team and the fan base. Big signing is Abreu. People can argue what they want but this is the big impact bat out there. He won't cost a prospect or $20M per year. Sign him and pencil him into the cleanup spot for the next 6 years.
ReplyDeleteSecond signing is Granderson to patrol RF. As long as he doesn't cost a draft pick. The guy is coming of back to back 40 HR seasons and has never really been hurt before this year. I'd be fine with up to a 3 year deal.
Last signing is Stephen Drew. He's a solid all around shortstop. Pretty good defense. Pretty good power. Pretty good speed. And his left handed bat would fit nicely into the lineup as I think Murphy will be moved this offseason. 3 year deal max.
Project Lineup:
LF Young
SS Drew
3B Wright
1B Abreu
RF Granderson
2B Flores
C D'Arnaud
CF Lagares
We don't give up a single prospect. We are going to be adding about $35M per season for 3 bats but this lineup would make us a very dangerous team in my opinion and really start to fill the stadium up.
Abreu is really very interesting but at the same time untested! Iam also not sure about Young. Im just not think hes an everyday player. Yes he brings speed and yes stellar defense but for me a leadoff guy has to get on base and he doesnt get enough on base. I would invest in Ellsburry as long we have a top 10 pick.Further think about Abreu. And sign a SS. Drew is ok for me. Then I would sign a SP for a 2-3year deal and at the same time would trade Niese/Gee/Mejia for a OF bat. Resign Byrd until Puello is ready. Your Lineup: 1. Elsburry 2. Puello 3. Wright 4. Abreu/Davis 5. OF bat 6. Flores 7. D'Arnaud 8. Drew
ReplyDeleteIt seems our Future rests solely on our club sucking over the final weeks and securing that top ten pick. I would Sincerely get our best people out to view Abreu. If they feel he is a missing piece to our puzzle, sign him. If not keep it moving. Secure pick would go to a short term contract for Choo and a Low risk/ High Reward contract for Nelson Cruz.
ReplyDeleteYoung/Lagares
Choo
Wright
Abreu
Flores
Cruz
D'arnaud
Tejada
P
In any case, names can be changed by trades which include players like Davis/Murphy/Niese/Gee/Montero/Mejia/minor leaguers not named Syndergaard
Obviously some names wouldnt be moved if its not worth it!
Totally agree with Kevin on Abreu as we have talked about him before and this makes so much sense but for whatever reason would be surprised if our F.O. would do it. I see SS as the position we MUST fill this off season as the prospects are limited. Tulo would be a major upgrade and that fella in Toronto would seem a nice choice but the F.O. would never do it admitting a mistake of that magnitude on their watch. So aside from them Mack do you see any other SS candidates that might be available? I don't see a Tulo trade costing that much in prospects because of the size of his contract so it would certainly behoove us to look into it. Then we could sign Byrd or Beltran short term and have a lineup of Young/Puello LF, Lagares/DD in CF and Byrd or Beltran in RF, our infield would be Davis/Satin, Flores, Tulo and Wright with Travis D. behind the plate. That's certainly a lineup I could live with to go along with our strength on the mound. Mack a few questions for you: updates and assessments on the following players please... Gsellman, Millar Diaz, Matz and any early info on Ivan Wilson. Thanks
ReplyDeleteKevin: I love the idea of signing Abreu. I just doubt Sandy has the stones for it. All these Cubans are becoming stars. However, I just also have a feeling that the Mets' luck is that they'd sign him, and he'd be another Kaz Matsui all over again.
ReplyDeleteI'd still love it though because he'd be a bargain if he actually panned out.
I think Sandy should look to trade a starter. The thought of giving up a big package for one player scares me. Especially since teams would want prospects closer to the majors and those are the guys I'm hoping to build a team around.
To me, utilizing Montero, Flores, Puello, and deGrom(just to name the likely players), will give the team a young core of dynamic talent to go alone with its current young crop of players. I wouldn't want to trade them. I'd much rather see if I can add to that young talent by trading Gee or Niese.
I know that's not popular, moving an established ML starter, but that's where the value is in ML baseball. Lets face it, the Mets have the young pitching to replace them, so why not go for it.
Does anyone really think the Mets will hold onto all of these young arms in 5 years? There's no chance, it'll be way too expensive. They'll pick two, and look to replace the rest from their system, trading away some for more young talent. That's how the Rays stay competitive and the only way to keep the payroll down in this age of 180 million dollar contracts for ace pitchers.
The next Seaver might not be able to stay more then 5 years...
Besides Stanton, Tulo would cost the next highest. He's the best hitting shortstop who plays gold glove defense, while still in his 20s. You could probably argue he is more valuable than Stanton since he plays a premium position. I would love Tulo but I jut don't see any chance this happens.
ReplyDeleteOther options are Asdrubal Cabrera, Johnny Peralta, Alexei Ramirez, Yunel Escobar or a near ready minor leaguer. We already discussed the pros and cons of Starlin Castro last week. There are a bunch of options that would be upgrades over quintanilla and tejada. I think we need to make the first move instead of waiting to see who is left. Drew is my guy but everybody has their opinion
The protected pick is a must during a off season where there aren't any real difference makers. To me, it's M. Bourne all over again.
ReplyDeleteI admit I want the Mets to win every day, but with every win I cringe at the thought of a lost pick. At the same time, remember that the first rounder from 2011 is still in low A. 2012's is in low low A. This year's is in the lowest level of the system. These guys aren't on the Bryce Harper track to the big leagues. They are 5/6 year projects.
I feel like they pick the kids who have the raw tools they like. Gap power, good hitters, great eye, and want to have 5 years to turn them into OBP machines. DePo just said a .300 hitter who doesn't walk is a below average ML hitter(that means you Daniel Murphy). They want guys who want to walk, not guys who are looking to crush the ball.
Well, I may pontificate all over this site at times, but my rebuilding of the 2014 team has always been around starting pitching.
ReplyDeleteMy opening day rotation will be Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Jenrry Mejia, and Dillon Gee. I’m not getting rid of any of them until either Rafael Montero or Noah Syndergaard is ready. Syndergaard will join Harvey and Wheeler and my three protected members of the rotation and the other two will be ‘leftovers’ after any trades Sandy Alderson can pull off using two of these guys in a trade of either a SS, veteran backup catcher, or corner outfield.
My bullpen is pretty set too. Bobby Parnell, Jeurys Familia, David Aardsma, Josh Edgin, Gonzalez Germen, Carlos Torres, and either John Church, Jake deGrom, Darin Gorski, or Scott Rice would fill in the fourth spot. Again, the excess here could be packaged in a deal for either a SS, aveteran backup catcher, or a corner outfielder.
Either way, I have 12 of my 25-man squad done now.
My field core is sparse. Ike Davis, Wilmer Flores, David Wright, Travis d’Arnaud. These a bunch of secondary players I might keep and I hope to resign Marlon Byrd, but, right now, all I have is these in a perfect world.
Any Cargo or Tulo deal has been fan speculation at best and neither fits the way Sandy Alderson runs his kind of team.
I thing a Juan Lagares/Matt den Dekker platoon is in the plan for CF which fills in two more slots (18).
Now, it’s get tricky. A deal that includes (let’s say) David Murphy + a minor league pitching prospect should get you one decent corner outfielder. Additionally, another deal using either Niese or Gee (remember, teams want seasoned starters, not untested prospects) plus another secondary prospect should get you the other outfielder you desire or shortstop needed. You haven’t hurt the core of your team and you have filled in two more of your slots (now 20).
You now fill in with three utility players and a reserve catcher and you’re at 24.
There is a big difference between losing the 11th and the 29th pick. Obviously if we were winning the division and picking at the end of the first round, it wouldn't be that big of a difference. But picking just outside the top 10 gives you a shot at a very good prospect.
ReplyDeleteKeep Dice-K in the rotation, Call up Swinden. Shut down Harvey soon, he's getting tired. Best shot at losing and getting a protected pick
Gary, Gsellman and Diaz look for real right now but it's simply too early.
ReplyDeleteMatz has been on a basic 5 innings limit all season and has passed the health test. He will move on to St. Lucie next season.
There isn't much being generated by Wilson yet. We'll give him this first year and see wha he does next season.
I think the Mets will be just fine with Tejada as long as they upgrade the outfield and possibly first base.
ReplyDeleteI mean, say they trade for a top 20 MLB prospect outfielder whose ready at the start if 2014. He's in left. Say they sign Beltran for right. Now, if they keep Davis at first and put Flores at second, they could strengthen their bench by putting Murphy there.
With DarNo behind the plate, their new lineup could be good enough to absorb whatever you get from Tejada, good or bad, as long as he plays defense.
I definitely don't want to trade say, Montero, Flores, Pawlecki and Verret for Tulo. To me, you're losing to much talent and putting the 2014 and 2015 teams at a disadvantage.
I couldn't trade any pitcher above AA plus Matz and I'd also make Flores and Pawlecki untouchable. Only because I'm not going to limit myself to Murphy at second and I'd want insurance in case DarNo isn't what we expect at catcher. The arms above AA are my insurance in case of injury and also insures that I'm replacing talent with talent during a winning season.
This is why I'm trying to trade an establish ML starter. You just are able to get what you want easier without gutting your system.
Mack,
ReplyDeleteI agree, we have already established the rotation and bullpen. I would very much like to not trade any of our starters until they are ready. Start with the 5 you mentioned with Montero and Syndergaad in AAA. Montero gets the first call if someone goes down early. By the trade deadline, hopefully we have 7 starters and we put ourself in a good position.
Signing Abreu and Drew won't cost us anything. We could resign Byrd instead of Granderson like I mentioned above then wait til the deadline to move a SP for a new corner OF. That would leave young, Byrd, puello and the deadline pickup to battle for 2 spots.
No, I would not kill the system for1 impact player, even a Tulo, Cargo, or Stanto(n). I do think clearing the clogged drain at 1B/2B (Murph, Wilmer, Satin, Ike, Duda—throw in Dyyksra) is a must for 40-man management alone.
ReplyDeleteI’m leary of Abrue who I read is a DH-in-waiting. Unless he really hits like Miggy, he just doesn’t fit and only adds to the log-jam. Now, if you could swap 2 of the above & say, Montero (even Gee) for Profar, I’m in the Abrue game. My fantasy is though that Wilmer becomes Miggy (& Ceasar becomes V. Guerrero), but that and an AK-47 only might get you arrested in an airport.
I’d like very much to re-sign Byrd, watch Ceasar P. carefully in LV for a couple of months and have a changing of the guard sometime before the trade deadline. Beltran as the other half of the roll sandwiching a Legares/DD CF platoon would be my choice, but would be fine with Choo. Elsbury’s demand in length (more than $$) of contract I feel will remove him from the equation.
I really don't see Beltran as an option. If we can get him great, but I highly doubt it's possible. His best shot at a ring is on STL or Texas
ReplyDeleteAbreu makes both Davis and Duda more expendable than they already are. Also, having him as an RBI bat puts Flores into play as a chip for an outfielder. Despite not wanting prospects, I think he would still net more than
ReplyDeleteI agree about the value of established pitchers vs. prospects. Unless it's a Syndergaard who everyone pretty much views as a "can't miss", you're likely to get more for Niese and/or Gee. Of those two, despite leaving the team without a lefty I'm much more in favor of trading Niese. He's had health issues and in between his dominant starts he's been nothing special, never fully realizing his potential. His contract is quite reasonable for a proven if unspectacular pitcher and losing it would make room for another minimum wage pitcher -- Gee, Montero, etc.
I don't see Eric Young as anything more than a utility player in the mold of Justin Turner. I've finally turned the corner on Marlon Byrd and feel that a one year deal with an option year would not necessarily be a bad move. You still need another thumper for left field and between Flores/Murphy/Davis/Duda/Niese/Montero/Degrom/Gorski you seem to have enough chips to land one. If you do, then you could live with A good glove/no hit shortstop -- even Tejada assuming his defense has returned even if his bat has not.
* more than Murphy.
ReplyDeletealthough us fans might not agree on which players we feel the team should acquire, I think we all agree that this team has a chance to become a contender in a single offseason. If they make the right moves, we could be pushing the Braves as soon as Opening Day. Or we could go with the same team and another 4th place finish if Sandy is shy on pulling the trigger on a major splash.
ReplyDeleteKevin -
ReplyDeleteIf you keep all your starters and let them heal and develop...
You will eventually be able to fill in every hole you have on this team.
My number one target would be Abreu. No draft pick compensation for Jose and it is so important that we get power from first base.
ReplyDeleteNo trade needed either. He is a risk, but one worth taking. We have our largest void at first.
Making one trade for an established player won't "kill the system". The Mets just have to identify who the have to keep and who they can replace.
ReplyDeleteI'm being blocked from administrating my own site and having to log on as an outsider...
ReplyDeleteThe Site Commmander has been alerted (Will Musto) and, hopefully, it will work itself out.
Is anyone else shocked by the physical size of Miguel Cabrera this weekend vs the mets?
ReplyDeleteHoly crap, I don't he gained weight since his Marlins days, but he's absolutely monstrous now...
He's twice the size of the 20 year old kid he was when he first got to the majors. I know it sucks to say, but I'm saying it.....I think this guy is on roids. I know he isn't all chiseled, but come on, he isn't anywhere close to his rookie days.
When he first came up, he was like how Wilmer Flores is now. Big, kind of skinny kid. He's tripled in volume. It's like he ate Prince Fielder.
I keep hearing that the Cuban first baseman is really a DH. Maybe not the best major investment for an NL team, and not one I expect Sandy to make when they clearly haven't given up on Ike yet.
ReplyDeleteOne OF is a must, and SS is the other priority, though that might be more difficult. If you can get Tulo without giving up one of the big 3, you do it, obviously.
I think next year's starting OF is Lagares, Byrd (on a 2-year deal, holding a spot for Puello) and someone from outside not named Beltran, who I don't think has any interest in ever playing here again.
Realistically, I think this team will give Ike another shot but they'll sign a guy like Cory Hart who can play 1B or RF. I think they bring back Byrd for the other OF spot. Murph will find his way to the bench given his OBP is barely over .300. Maybe they bring back Buck. Then I guess they wait out the SS market and instead sign whomever of Escobar, Drew and Peralta is last to sign.
ReplyDeleteSame old song and dance instead of making a move and taking over the title of best team in NY
Charley, I have no direct knowledge, but I disagree with your steroids/Cabrera sentiment. Everyone gains a considerable amount of weight between 20 & 30. He wasnt exactly skinny when he came up and was always on the thicker side, but as your metabolism catches up with you, you clearly don't shed the weight like you did as a younger kid. I think his weight gain is just a natural " fatting" up and not as a result of steroids.
ReplyDeleteIts easy to look at his numbers and point to Peds, but I really think hes just that damn good. He's playing on another level right now and if he was caught cheating, it would be easy to say "obviously" but until he fails a drug test, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume hes clean.
Much like Mack I don't like any of the free agent outfielders and their cost. If we stay outside the top ten and havt to give a guy like Choo 4 years/60 million and give up the first round pick/slot money. That's way too steep for a player like Choo. I just as soon continue to build through the draft and look for a reasonable trade.
ReplyDelete