Sandy Alderson on Alan Dykstra –
“He is a little bit older, but he’s a former first-round draft pick. In fact I was in San Diego when he was drafted. A couple of us — Paul DePodesta being the other — were involved in trading for him from San Diego (to bring him) here. He has had a great season, and he has approached the game, offensively, the way the organization hopes to approach the game at the major-league level. I’m hopeful that he can be rewarded for that. This is his second year in this league, but only because we were full basically at Las Vegas at his position. So he’s done a great job this year. He’s been a key part of the team, and we still think he’s got a future. Absolutely.”
Mack – Boy, that’s what I would want my General Manager to say if I was a 26-year old minor league player at the AA level… ‘we still think he’s got a future’. Bottom line is Dykstra will settle into Las Vegas for a couple of years until Jayce Boyd comes of age.
Fangraphs on Bronson Arroyo –
Bronson Arroyo, RHP, Cincinnati - And now for something completely different. Bronson Arroyo is the opposite of the high upside/high risk duo that we just talked about, he’s about as much of a known quantity as any pitcher in baseball. He doesn’t walk anyone, he posts a moderate strikeout rate, he’ll give up some home runs, but at the end of the day, he’ll give you 200 league average innings year in and year out. Arroyo has thrown 200 innings in every year since 2004 except for 2011, when he threw 199. He is the perhaps the definition of an innings eater. However, he’s also going to be 37 next year, $14 million for an aging innings eater is a hefty price tag. Arroyo has made it clear that he’s hunting for a multi-year contract this winter http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-pitchers-are-getting-a-qualifying-offer-this-offseason/
Mack – In my book, this guy is past being sent to the DL. He is exactly what the Mets need for the 2014 and 2015 season while they finish their rebuilding. You’re going to get seven plus quality innings every five games out of this guy while you package either Jon Niese or Dillon Gee for what you need at the plate. You also fill in one of your five slots while Matt Harvey heals and Noah Syndergaard matures.
The Mets don’t need any more young, talented, prospect-type pitchers. They have plenty of them. They need an iron horse they can all hook their bridle to. In my book, it’s Arroyo.
Mark Simon on EYJ:
The Mets are 36-34 in Young’s 70 games played (28-43 without him). Estimates on his value to the team using advanced stats vary from 0.9 Wins Above Replacement (via Baseball-Reference.com) to 2.0 Wins Above Replacement (via Fangraphs.com), though both are big fans of his baserunning. In fact, for the season Young rates third in the majors in Fangraphs’ baserunning metric (Ultimate Baserunning Rating or UBR), contributing 8.6 runs, 8.2 of which have come with the Mets. He has the highest UBR in the game (3.8) over the last 30 days. - http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/77382/the-series-in-metrics-mets-vs-indians
Mack – these are the new Sabr-Sandy stats that are used in the 21st century version of this pastime. I will say that the results are impressive with him in the lineup and the addition of him in the game has changed the speed of this team.
In my book, right now, the 2014 Mets leftfielder is Young, with Matt den Dekker in center and Juan Lagares in right. A lot can change between now and opening day, but Young seems to have earned the ‘last man standing’ status of the current Mets outfield.
Other Minor Leaguers –
UT Jordany Valdespin – 25-yrs. old – AAA: .466/.537/.759/1.296 – We still have to deal with this guy. At this point, he is still a member of this team and though I don’t think he’ll ever be allowed back in the Flushing clubhouse, we said the same thing about Frank Francisco, right? Take away his attitude and all the things he’s done in the past and there still is a very talented utility player in that uniform. He’s also only 25 years old and could be a decent project for some Latin coach out there.
SP Jacob deGrom – 25-yrs. old – A+/AA/AAA: - 7-7, 4.51. 147.2-IP, 120-K, 46-BB – deGrom showed flashes at various levels this past season, but his lowest ERA was with St. Lucie (2-starts, 3.00). Binghamton (10-starts, 4.80), and Las Vegas (14-starts, 4.52) weren’t as successful. He especially pitched badly in his last 10 outings at the AAA level (5.43). deGrom has reached the professional timeline that he would normally move on to the majors, but I can’t see him becoming part of the 2014 Mets rotation, even with how banged up it currently is. He could have a future in the pen, be part of an off-season trade, or be returned to Vegas to simmer. That’s where I have him.
SP Alex Panteliodes – 23-yrs. old – A+: 6-6, 4.75, 19-starts, 102.1-IP, 56-K, 29-BB – ‘Pants’ ran hot and cold for most of the season. When he was on, he was hitless (7/19: 7.0-IP, 0-R, 7-K) and then, eight days later, 7/27: 2.0-IP, 7-R. Pantelidoes’ entire game is determined upon his control of his ++ curve and, if that pitch doesn’t come in, the whole game can go to hell real quick. Batters than sit on the 88-91 fastball and you get games with results like the July 27th game. I have no idea where to place him in 2014. My current projected 2014 St. Lucie rotation is Steven Matz, Michael Fulmer, Luis Cessa, Luis Mateo, Seth Lugo, Jake Kuebler, and Tyler Pill. This leaves him to fight for a rotation spot in Binghamton with the likes of Gabriel Ynoa, Rainey Lara, Matt Bowman, Hansel Robles, Angel Cuan, and Domingo Tapia. His lack of K/9 ratio doesn’t set him up well as a pen candidate… I just don’t know at this point.
SP Angel Cuan – 24-yrs. old – A+/AA: 8-4, 3.62, 109.1-IP, 87-K, 23-BB – Cuan has had a very challenging Mets career. He was pure rotation from 2008-2010, than half and half in 2011 for Savannah (32-G, 14-starts, 10-3, 3.56), followed by back to the rotation in St. Lucie in 2012 and mostly in the pen this season. He really hasn’t been a bad pitcher but it just doesn’t seem that the Mets project a future for him. He will open up 2014 in Binghamton and once again compete for a rotation pot, but you just sort of know he will come up short, be sent to the pen as the long man, and be used only as a sport starter or if someone goes down.
I think Gnoa will go to Lucy. I know he pitched well, but he is still young and there's no reason he should skip Lucy.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, a guy like Tapia has no business being promoted to Bingo after the horrible season he had. I would hope there was some sort of injury involved because he was rotten in 80% of his starts.
I agree with most of your other placements. I could see Mateo going to Bingo once he comes back from and finishes his rehab after TJS.
I think deGrom will end up as a back end of the bullpen type pitcher, but for value purposes going into the off season, I can see why the Mets have kept him in the rotation.
Arroyo doesn't get me excited. Frankly, I think Dillon Gee is a much better pitcher at this point and is about 25% of the cost. The mets should go big if they are going to get a free agent pitcher. I'm hoping they make a run at Garza. This team needs to fortify their rotation and build up as much depth as possible.
Just my opinions...
ReplyDeleteHey Mack. Take another look at your 2014 Mets outfield you mention above. I say no way. Mack there is no lumber there no consistent home run threats - not one of them is a big threat at the plate.
ReplyDeleteSerious Defense- yes but ...
See a big trade for an OF or a FA or both.
Best...
Bud:
ReplyDeleteI never said the Mets outfield has any lumber left.
I now can only break out the best that is left.
An outfield 0f Young, Lagares, and den Dekker screams of the need for more bats.
You're right on the money there. I'll take a Lagaras/DD platoon in CF any day of the week, but the Mets need upgrades at the corner and they'll need to spend to do it.
ReplyDeleteIt's time for Fred to get back into the business of running a big market team. No excuses about the market being over priced. Sandy needs to set the market as soon as possible.
Charley, every successful team needs a couple of players in the field that excel in defense. Their job is to win games by making plays other can't make.
ReplyDeleteThe combo of Lagares and dD will do that in centerfield. They will also run down 80% of the balls hit in left-center and right-center
The bonus here is they will most likely combine for at least 15 home runs and will knock in 60-70 runs.
Now... if Ruben Tejada would remember how to play shortstop, Alderson can begin to worry about the bat problem
I said it yesterday and I will say it again today, (even if it means agreeing with Mack) Bronson Arroyo would be an ideal addition to the rotation for 2014/2015. There are other good choices too, but Arroyo would be ideal. A rotation of Wheeler, Niese, Arroyo, Gee, Mejia would be formidable . . might be tough for Thor to break into it if they all do as they should.
ReplyDeleteThe 2014 Mets will definitely have at least one new bat in the outfield. Whether it is Choo, Pence, Cruz, Bautista, CarGo, Giancarlo, who knows. (The latter 2 are highly unlikely imo. Ellsbury, it seems, is also unlikely.) An outfield of EYJ in left, a Lagares/dD platoon in CF (assumng Matt gets his strikeouts under control) and one of the aforementioned boppers in right would be just fine.
In my ideal world, SA would acquire 2 starting outfielders, one as a FA and the other via trade, since I am fairly confident that he will not make 3 big ticket signings. In that scenario, ETJ would start at 2B and Murphy would be part of a trade package. (I'm tired of seeing grounders fielded in short right field and players beating out ground balls that should be outs.) To complete this ideal scenario, Alderson would trade for a good shortstop. Either Aybar or Andrus could be available this winter and either would be a major upgrade. As with CarGo, I don't see the Rockies parting with Tulo either.
Acquire Choo for RF and Gordon for LF, with Lagares and DD in CF and EY as the 5th OF/ backup 2B. I just can't stress the defensive ability of that OF, with more than enough offense being supplied by the group. That defense alone will save plenty of runs and while none of them are 30 hr hitters, 20/85 for Gordon, 15/75 for Choo and a combination of 10/65 for Cf platoon would be more than admirable, especially if you pickup a big bat for 1b (Abreu) that can anchor the cleanup spot and have a 2nd year to make adjustments of D'Arnaud and a healthy Wright.
ReplyDeleteI just don't like Arroyo in this rotation. He's El Duque light and past his prime. Championship teams wouldn't even have him in the rotation in a seven game series.
ReplyDeleteI say go big, get yourself a legit number 2/3 like Garza. I mean, the Tigers have Verlander and Sherzer, but still spent 90 million on Annibal Sanchez. That's what playoff contenders do. They don't try to be competitive in September, they try to be competitive in October.
I want them to sign Garza, Choo, and Bryd, Pence, or Beltran.