Sorry for my half-ass report yesterday morning. I’ve been in and out of the Dr./hospital the past two days with my third bout of cellulitis in a year and a half (look it up… it’s nasty). I destroyed my immune system back then with a spider bite and every bite now takes on a new dimension. A simply mosquito bite four days ago on my left thigh now looks like the milky way galaxy. In bed, lots of a drug called Bactrim, and back to writing.
The San Francisco loss on Tuesday could be the beginning of a very important two weeks that would insure the Mets a guaranteed pick in the 2014 draft. This is a bizarre season in which all loyal fans need to root for as many Mets loses we can sustain during the remainder of the reason. I don’t want a top 9 pick… I want a top 5 pick that would include one of the elite of the draft. This is the last cat we have to skin this year and it’s so important to be in the running for players with last names like Rodon, Beede, Hoffman, Jackson, Turner, and Gatewood. The high school pitchers come next but he names above will get you to the playoffs in 2016.
The decision to return Matt Harvey to the rotation changes the 2014 opening day 5-some to Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and Jenrry Mejia. I would then have Rafael Montero either go SP 1 in Vegas or the Mets pen, Noah Syndergaard SP2 in AAA, and Jeurys Familia as the 8th inning ROOGY in Queens. The results of all this would make the shit hit the fan just before the trade deadline prior to the 2014 all-star break where two Mets starters would immediately available (barring injuries)for trades. I don’t see the pen changing because I do see the excess starters being dealt off for a top every day player.
It’s amazing how the fate of one pitcher can change the fate of mighty rivers.
I saw that catcher Travis d’Arnaud was pulled after another ding the other night. Boy, he’s a fragile one, ain’t he? The Mets better think twice before packaging Kevin Plawecki in any off-season deal. Plawecki currently projects to start the 2014 season in Binghamton after 449 at-bats for Savannah/St. Lucie (.305/.390/.448/.838, 80-RBI). I can easily project him to be ready for Queens on opening day 2015, so both the health and production of d’Arnaud needs to be kept under the microscope. Look, I know the sample is small (78 at-bats) but a stat line of .167/.233/.231/.463 is about as anemic as a prospect can be during the end of a very bad season. There are no guarantees that 2015 won’t produce the same low levels of production. This was one of the few players I had hoped we would see a decent September from.Email from Michael Scannell -
I know this sounds nuts, but with Colorado dangling Gonzalez and Tulowitzki...and the Mets talking about involving a 3rd team to make something work, is there a chance they can pull off a franchise-changing deal for BOTH a la the Dodgers-Sox last year? If Gammons is right and Tulo is more of a salary dump, I could see the Rox moving both to the same team that's willing to absorb the money.
Mack – Michael, I know how much you would love either or both these guys, but I just can’t find enough players in this organization to pull something like this off.
Let’s say you are right and Tulo is a salary dump. You’re still going to need at least three quality players to pull off a trade for someone like him. All of this would be much easier if there never was a Matt Harvey injury. You could start this deal off with either Jon Niese or Dillon Gee and build from there. Do it now, and Harvey goes down on the third or fourth outing and you’re fucked for the year. You simply can’t expect a team to trade for a star like this without one established starter. Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia are coming back from injuries and Rafael Montero is a rookie. They are the Mets problems, not Colorado’s.
Past that, you would have to let Colorado pick which second baseman they want, either Daniel Murphy or Wilmer Flores. It would have to be their decision, not yours.
Lastly, it could cost you either Matt den Dekker or Juan Lagares… or, if they were willing to go high prospect instead, a projected AA starters like Gabriel Ynoa.
Is this enough? I don’t know, nor do I know if the Mets are left with enough quality pitching on opening day 2014.
Matt Harvey – “I strongly believe I’ll be back next year.”
You know what’s going to happen here. Harvey will toss when his doctors tell him he can and he’ll tell everyone that everything is okay regardless of how he feels. This is a classic example of your bull in a china shop and, who knows, maybe he can go the rest of his career striking people out, icing down his arm, and feeling like shit two days after he pitches. I told you this right after the injury happened and I’m telling you again… this guy is going to be on the mound on opening day.
I think Montero cracks the opening day rotation. I can't see your 5 making it out of ST healthy.
ReplyDeleteEven with a best case scenario of Harvey starting next year, it still ultimately gives Mets a possible rotation of Wheeler, and 4 guys with recent injuries. Just sounds too risky to start trading away pitchers for hitters.
ReplyDeleteI agree that something just doesn't seem right already with d'Arnoud. Heck, Centeno just showed up and got 2 hits already. I'm sure he was just as nervous and trying hard as d'arnaud is.
Maybe the team should focus on free agents, and trade whoever they determine is odd man out on the field (ike, duda, Flores, murphey). Just doesn't seem right to keep all of them simply because they are cheap and under team control, which allows to be stuck in Vegas.
I'd push hard for CarGo, but I wouldn't take on Tulo's massive salary. The Rockies are probably stuck with him, but at least he's a great player. It's the last three years of that contract I worry about.
ReplyDeleteCarGo is owed like 65 mill over four years. That's the guy I'd be willing to trade one of my pitching prospects for, but not Thor.
Still, I'd spend the doe and sign Choo and Pence. I'd look to sign a decent SS for two years or trade for one. If I got my two outfielders, I wouldn't mind keeping Tejada at short. Those two guys would turn the mets offense into a strength and this team would likely play in October.
Mack - thank you for answering. Feel better soon, we're pulling for you.
ReplyDeleteWith regard to the trade, I would still do it. Even if it fucks the Mets in 2014, (assuming they still sign Choo) they'd have a nucleus of Choo, Wright, CarGo, Tulo, and d'Arnaud in the lineup going forward. If the Rockies would take:
1) Gee
2) Montero
3) Murphy/Flores
4) Davis
5) Puello
6) Ynoa
I'd pull the trigger.
1) OF Choo
2) 2B ???
3) 3B Wright
4) OF CarGo
5) SS Tulo
6) 1B Duda
7) CF Lagares/den Dekker
8) Ca d'Arnaud
SP1 Harvey
SP2 Wheeler
SP3 Niese
SP4 FA
SP5 Syndergaard (June)
....has the makings of a great team for 2014 and beyond. If Harvey goes down, we'd expect Wheeler, Niese, and the FA to carry the staff while Syndergaard gets his feet wet. Then in 2015 you would have a returning Harvey and more experienced Wheeler and Thor.
The last 3 years of Tulo's deal aren't awful:
ReplyDelete19 - $20M
20 - $14M
21 - $15M ($4M buyout)
It seems Harvey's conversation with "Doc" Halladay and Dr. Andrews examination makes Harvey believe he can rehab the elbow without surgery. What's not been disclosed yet is the % of Havey's UCL is torn. I wonder if the Mets will look at Halladay as a possible off-season signing. He appears past his prime but his work ethic, demeanor and winning experience would be invaluable to a young, high-upside Mets staff. I wouldn't spend too much on him and he most likely wants to go to a contender, but Halladay is a somewhat intriguing possibility. Though pitchers like Lincecum or Garza would, obviously, be more preferred options. Either way In regards to shaping the future look of the team, I believe this is the Mets most important off-season since the winters of '04 and '05 when they brought in Pedro, and then Carlos, respectively.
ReplyDeleteI would sign off on this deal because, in the long run, I still have my Big 3 (Harvey, Wheeler, Thor) for 2015.
ReplyDeleteI also would begin to get used to writing in Satin's name after Duda at 1B. I think that will be your new platoon after one hint of a Ike Davis slump.
Dave, let me tell you something about Dr. Andrews (I go back to the days he handles Knicks players in the 70s).
ReplyDeleteIf Matt Harvey needed that salary... Andrews would DEMAND that he have it poste haste.
There is no way he would sign off any delay unless he thought it could accomplish a complete heal.
I am in agreement with you. Although I wrote a post to the contrary I've come around to the opinion that surgery should be postponed in favor of rehab.
ReplyDeleteAs for d'Arnaud, I see he's back in the line-up today, so his injury can't be too serious. That being said, he appears to be an injury-prone backstop, so holding onto Plawecki would be a prudent move. He could turn out to be our starting catcher opening day 2015.
I think that with the ascension of Thor into an SP1 prospect, there's less pressure in d'Arnaud working out. Sure, it will be great if he does. If, however, Plawecki tears it up in Vegas next year and d'Arnaud is a bust the team won't have quite the obligation in sticking with him. Syndegaard, not d'Arnaud, has evolved into the centerpiece of the Dickey trade.
I meant 'surgery' not salary... sometimes I type different words than I'm thinking... results of old brain trauma... my bad
ReplyDeleteA few points if I may. Before we all get wound up and trade Travis for a bag of balls lets not forget he was the main piece in trades for 2 Cy Young award winners and he's missed most of the last 2 seasons and as far as him being injury prone just take a look at Tejada last night. He got injured playing baseball just like d'Arnaud so would you say he's injury prone? Injuries happen just look at the big club as only Hawkins, Murphy and Gee have made it through this entire season. As far as the CarGo/Tulo trade I agree with Mack and I'd do it in a heartbeat because we so badly need to make a statement and if their still serious about 2014 we need to make deal's like this. I would also sign Lincecum if he'd accept a 1 year deal and we could maybe start to take back this town from the Evil empire who this winter finally look like age and injury (and PED's) have taken their toll. And unlike the past when they could always outspend everyone "the times they are a changing" as club's lock up their best players leaving slim pickings in the free agent pool.
ReplyDelete53 million over 3 years isn't awful? It is if it ends up like the end of most, MOST, long term contracts. Which is usually the least productive.
ReplyDeleteSo, yeah, it would worry me.
I'd rather try to sign Pence for 5 yrs at 70-75 million. Pence plays every day and is a team first, winning player. He's also cost zip in prospects which is huge in sustaining success at a reasonable payroll.
The Mets will have money. Let those NY owners, who have sat back for years now while the team got increasingly worse, open their wallets and put a playoff caliber team on the field.
Pitching is fragile and they should aim to keep it all. It's a currency in MLB that is greater then money. Keep them all, buy the bats.
I was not endorsing the trading of Travis in my comment. It was my point that the emergence of Plawecki and Syndegaard, takes the pressure off the Mets having to stick by d'Arnaud as the starting catcher if he turns out to be injury-prone and/or underachieves. The Mets appear to have some in-house flexibility at the position going forward thanks to these two players, I wouldn't trade either of them until one of the two establish themselves. Even then, if each of them produce it might be wise to hold onto both.
ReplyDelete