Mack Ade – AM Report – 9-3-13 – My ‘Current’ 2014 Mets

We’re just starting off the last month of the year and I thought I’d put down on paper where I think this team stands right now. This would be my 25-man, on opening day 2014, if nothing else changes in the off-season. I will say I would be very unhappy if there weren’t some additional moves.

 

Eric Young Jr., Carlos Torres,  and Juan Lagares have held their own while no one believed in them and the additions of Wilmer Flores, Vic Black, Zack Wheeler, and Travis d’Arnaud are all going to prove out to be big moves for this team

 

1B – Ike Davis – I’m going to go old school throughout the infield here. My hopes are that I see some new names on opening day, especially here. Lucas Duda is not going to hack it here and, as you see, I have Josh Satin as one of my utility players that can spell either Davis or whoever winds up here. I’d spend the off-season trying to sign someone (how come the Pirates can find one), but I’d tell David this is last shot… if… he takes no addition arbitration compensation in 2014.

2B – Daniel Murphy – Like David, I’m staying with what I know I’ve got, even though I think Wilmer Flores’ as an equal amount of potential and is a considerable amount of years younger. Neither of these are going to win you a Golden Glove, but, in the long run, Flores will cost you more games. I just can’t commit a position to him until he learns to play it and, until that, I give him 200 utility at-bat to hopefully set up a future trade. In the case of Murphy, he’s going to hit in the .275-.280 range until our new prospect (Dilson Herrera) ETAs in 2016.

SS – Ruben Tejada – No one has been punished more than this kid and I expect him to come to camp next spring not only buff but around a month early. Like both Davis and Murphy, he’s the best we have until the Mets trade for someone else or waits for Gavin Cecchini to grow up (ETA: 2017).

3B – David Wright – Thank God for David Wright. He can’t carry the entire team on his back but the addition of d’Arnaud does begin to set up a 2-3-4 lineup with Murphy than is at least respectable. I already miss Marlon.

C – Travis d’Arnaud – Okay, this guy has all-star written over him. I absolutely love his little glove flip on low pitches that suck in umpires to call strikes. The bat is coming around and I just feel it in my gut that the Mets aren’t going to have to worry about this position until sometime in the next decade.

UT – Wilmer Flores – I wish I could find a position for this bat, but, at this point in his development, I can’t. I’m going to stay with what I know I have and keep Murphy ahead of Flores, while, t the same time, let the coaches work with him all season long in the field improving his defense. My gut says some tam will make a run at either this guy or Murphy but we’ll see.

UT – Josh Satin – I’m absolutely thrilled at what Satin has done this year (I told all of you he was a professional hitter). He hasn’t embarrassed himself on the field and can take over Justin Turner’s backup role at 3B, 2B, and 1B. The only problem with dropping Turner I would have to put Wright as the backup shortstop on my depth chart.

UT – Anthony Recker- Watching Travis d’Arnaud play so far this season tells me that the backup catcher next year for the Mets isn’t going to get that much play time. What you do want here is someone that won’t embarrass you defensively and Recker seem to fit that mode perfectly. He also offers a little pop (6-HRs) that is a bonus.

LF – Eric Young Jr. – Another Sandy Alderson trade gem, Young has brought the most excitement to the leadoff spot since Jose Reyes departed. His speed is the kind of game we all want the Mets to play, but can he hit .300 for the entire season? This is my leadoff hitter and everyday left fielder until something better comes along.

CF – Matt den Dekker – I’m building my outfield based on what this team has left here and I’m admittedly telling you that it is a mistake to take Lagares out of centerfield. I do this because den Dekker may defensively be better out there, but he will never (IMO) hit well enough to play every day in the majors. Of course, I said the same thing about Lagares a year ago.

RF – Juan Lagares – Okay, I seem to be wrong here. Lagares has slowly become a viable every day Mets outfielder. You give me Young’s speed, Lagares’ defense (finished August with the most defensive runs saved in August in the league), and a 30-HR hitter in RF and I’ve got my outfield.

UT – Andrew Brown – Who is this guy? He was thrown out of the last game Colorado played in 2012, was cu, and, in January 2013 signed a minor league contract with the Mets. Brown was never considered a prospect (2007 – 18^th round pick – St. Louis), and has played seven years in the minors (.286), but he’s hit well (.276, 5-HR) and, in my book, has earned a utility role.

UT – Kirk Nieuwenhuis – sadly, the Captain earns this spot because he’s the best of what is left on this team. Everything will change here around the end of June when I anticipate Cesar Puello (and possible, Dustin Lawley) being ready to move up to Queens.

SP – Zack Wheeler – I still think that Matt Wheeler is going to do everything he can to convince the Mets to let him pitch next season, but, my guess is he will lose that battle. I also think that Wheeler is going to seize the opportunity to step up and become the SP1. Hell, he may be doing it already this month. This was a great trade.

SP – Jon Niese – We don’t have to spend any time here. Like David Wright, Niese is a very important part of the future Mets rotation. It sometimes seems like this guy has been around since the Dodgers left town, but he’s still only 26-years old. He will remain the lefty in the rotation for years to come.

SP – Dillon Gee – Like Niese, Gee is also a solid piece in the future of this team, though I’m not sure what his role will be past the first half of the 2014 season. I ‘screw the Super 2’ here with the promotion of Rafael Montero, but I’ll wait it out for Noah Syndergaard and will bring him up around July 1^st. Somebody is going to have to step aside and, on paper, Gee looks to be odds on favorite to be dealt up as trade bait (probably all this is a moot point because there always is somebody going down).

SP – Rafael Montero – It’s time. He’s withstood the test in hell (Vegas) and the Mets need him to step up now that Harvey is on the sidelines. I still think in my heart that he is a closer by trade, but he will get a chance in 2014 to prove me wrong in the rotation.

SP – Jenrry Mejia – The operation to remove bone chips from Mejia’s elbow was considered routine and shouldn’t prevent him from reporting in January to St. Lucie for Extended Camp. If this guy could just stay healthy…

RP – Carlos Torres – If I was a GM for another team, this would be my ‘add on’ player to any trade I would make with the Mets. The guys had balls enough to tell the Mets that he wasn’t going to report back to the minors and his pitching backed up his mouth. A better reliever than a starter. Definitely  a keeper in 2014.

RP – Bobby Parnell – The only problem here is the recovery time for whatever they decide to do regarding his neck problems. I need a neck operation but doctors have convinced me to go on morphine for a few years until they get better at these procedures. Operating on necks is a big fucking deal and Parnell will do everything he can to avoid it. This could take a while to play out. My backup here is Black as closer and Rice added to squad.

RP – Jeurys Familia – The real good news is he successfully pitched an inning on Sunday during the last regular season game for St. Lucie. Like Mejia, all the talent is here, just not the health. If these two guys could just stay healthy, things could really step up next year.

RP – Gonzalez Germen – Wow, was I not expecting this. When do you see a minor league meh become a major league success? I have been told for three years that Mets pitching coaches love this guy and were just waiting for him to put it all together. Well, he did this year in Queens and I would easily invite him back next year for some more.

RP – Josh Edgin – Sadly, Edgin was another of the many Mets pitchers that wound up on the DL this year. He got off to a very bad start but rebounded well until the injury. Once again, he will be the only lefty out of the pen unless Anderson can add someone here to take the load off.

RP – Vic Black – We’re going to get a good look at someone who could immediately step into the closer role if Parnell isn’t ready on opening day. Black has been clocked at 101. This potentially could be one of the most valuable pitchers on the staff next year. What a great fucking trade waiting this one out.

RP – David Aardsma -  This was a tough one for me because it represented the 25^th slot and took away an opening from Scott Rice. Both these guys had very good 2013 seasons, but the surprise from Germen and the addition of Black is going to make it much more difficult to make the 2014 pen. I’ve got Rice starting off in Vegas waiting for the first injury of the season.

 

Gary Seagren –

Mack, wouldn't we be better served with Lawley, our only real power threat with a chance to make the big club, in Vegas and Vaughn in Bingo? Also I'm guessing they signed Harang so they can now give the dreadful Matsusaka his 100k and show him the door and in this case I guess we dodged a big bullet a few years ago. Is it me or have the Bravo's sold there soul to the devil!(and by the way are we still paying for 69' and game 6? ...LOL ). NO team should be as lucky as they are. Chipper FINALLY retires and they pick up this guy to replace him and he leads the league in hitting.....unreal. They always seem to find top quality replacements and I know that's a sign of a great organization but man as a Met fan it's getting real old getting our butts kicked for over 20 years by the same team and to really rub it in Roger friggin McDowell has to be their pitching coach....geeez! Last item is wouldn't it be great if we could have Smith, Herrera and Cecchini on the same St. Lucie infield and Nimmo in the OF by the end of next year. I know what your gonna say but a guy can hope can't he Mack because were not getting any younger here LOL

                Mack – my guess is we have now seen the last of Matsusaka. Harang is as good as anyone to finish out the season in the rotation. At least the team can get back to the hotel before dawn.

My ‘educated’ guess right now is that Lawley is on top of the pile right now. You are never going to see him back in Binghamton. The Mets are going to do everything they can to sign a quality everyday right fielder for 2014. Lawley is still a big question mark and needs to work in the off season on his plate patience and put up huge numbers during the first two months of the Las Vegas 2014 season. Only then will the Mets consider him as an alternative to whoever they place either in right, or Eric Young Jr. in left.

The Mets are not going to rush any of the four kids you mentioned, especially Dominic Smith, who does have a good chance to open the 2014 season in Brooklyn. But, that’s as high as he can be projected for opening day. Sorry.

Couldn’t call you back yesterday. Big family cookout.