The Scannell Plan

A little over a month ago I wrote a post looking ahead to 2014 and what moves the Mets should look to make in the offseason - http://alturl.com/9rgpk.  I intentionally left it incomplete because I wanted to see how the hot stove rumors would shape up and I wanted to see what would change in the Mets’ dynamic.  I assumed that Tulowitzki was going to be available and that he would fit right in at SS and to the cleanup spot.  I also thought Beltran would be a short term fix in the OF and that Ellsbury would be a good long-term signing to play CF and hit leadoff.  I recognized the fact that Ike Davis could not be counted on to be the mainstay at IB we all hoped he would and thought trading for a blocked, cheap, but up-and-coming Andrew Lambo would be worth the risk if the Mets built a strong enough lineup to hit him 7^th.

 

While the Mets’ needs remain the same, the landscape has changed (and likely will again).  Now, reports are coming out that Tulowitzki will in fact be available, as will his teammate and Alderson favorite Carlos Gonzalez.  It also appears that the Mets’ top free agent target will be Shin-Soo Choo, given the commitment to him will likely be of shorter duration and less money than Ellsbury, yet he’s still a great option for the leadoff spot given his OB ability.  With regard to 1B, Davis is still not an option, but Duda has returned and Josh Satin seems to fit into MLB just fine.  Given that, I’m advocating that the Mets still pursue a trade for Tulowitzki, swap out Carlos’s (Gonzalez for Beltran), sign Choo, and use internal options at 1B and CF for now.

 

1.  Sign Shin-Soo Choo for 4 years, $60M.



 

It seems that every few weeks a report comes out (especially on NYM mouthpiece blog Metsblog) that the team will target Choo.  My feeling is, why fight it?  Choo instantly upgrades the offense and fills an OF position.  While he has had his problems in CF, he can play a serviceable corner spot.  With a career slash line of .288/.389/.465/.854, he fits right into the top of the lineup.  Rumors are that he’s looking for 4 years and $60M, or $15M per.  With the money coming off the books, this would be a wise short-term investment for the Mets.  For all the talk that his numbers are inflated in a hitters haven in Cincy and in a contract year, he did quite well for himself during his time in Cleveland.  I have no reservations in making this addition, looking at it as a reinvestment of Jason Bay’s money.

 

2.  Sign Omar Infante for 3 years, $21M.



 

With Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores in the fold, I’m sure some people are questioning this move…but I’ll get to that a little further along.  In short (for now), Murphy is trade bait and I have serious doubts about Flores’ ability to play 2B.  Infante has had success in the NL East playing for Florida and Atlanta.  He’s also having a strong year in Detroit.  For a team that had no problem paying Frank Francisco and Shawn Marcum over $10M to do basically nothing for the team, paying Infante $7M per year (a significant raise from what he’s been making for his career) to play a solid 2B and hit 2^nd.

 

3.  Sign Bronson Arroyo for 2 years, $24M.



 

Alderson has already mentioned that the Mets need to sign a veteran starter in the offseason.  In a weak crop of free agents, Arroyo provides value and at his age, a short-term deal is reasonable.  He wouldn’t be in the long-term plans but would provide a good stopgap until all of the Mets’ young arms are mature.  The deal is for the same money he got in Cincy and I doubt he’ll be more expensive at age 37.

 

4.  Trade for Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.



 

A deal like this requires it’s own post, but I wanted to include it to show how the move fits into the grand scheme of what the Mets can and should do.

 

This is a franchise-changing move, the Gary Carter- or Mike Piazza-move for this generation Mets.  The Rockies are going into a full rebuilding mode and are looking to get back players and salary flexibility.  The Mets need middle-of-the-order run producers as well as have holes at SS and OF.  If ever an opportunity was made to fit the Mets’ needs this is it.

 

What would it take to acquire BOTH of these stars?  For now, only Dan O’Dowd and Sandy Alderson know the answer to that and we can only guess.  Of the two, it seems Gonzalez would cost more and Tulo would be more of a salary dump.  That doesn’t mean Tulo will be free, but there will be less of a premium paid by a team willing to take on his salary.  The other question is will that discount extend to CarGo – will the Rockies be willing to accept less for CarGo if a team is willing to take Tulo as well, a la the Red Sox-Dodgers deal last year.

 

It was suggested in an earlier post that Gee, Murphy and Lagares or den Dekker might be enough.  I don’t see this as working for a number of reasons.  First, the Rockies want position prospects and they aren’t going to give these two away.  This isn’t to say that they don’t want pitching (I don’t believe the hype that they’re afraid of pitching) as someone has to pitch for them, but the Mets are going to have to give up quality hitting as well.  I would begin trade discussions as follows:

 

-       Dillon Gee

-       Daniel Murphy

-       Ike Davis

-       Rafael Montero

-       Cesar Puello

-       Gabriel Ynoa

…and go from there.  Gee has been one of the most successful pitchers in baseball since his performance against the Yankees.  He has really proven himself as a potential #2 or #3 starter.  Montero is one of the best pitching prospects in the Mets’ system, his reputation around baseball is growing, and has the potential to be a TOR starter.  I’ve read that Niese, Montero, and Syndergaard intrigue the Rockies.  If Niese intrigues them, I could see Gee as a substitute, given their ages and what Gee has accomplished over the last two seasons.  This way, the Rox get two of the three pitchers they supposedly have interest in.  Both profile to do well in Colorado as they are groundball pitchers and are less likely to be victimized by the long ball in Coors Field.  Murphy gives them one of the better 2B available at a reasonable cost.  He can hold down the position until Trevor Story or another Rockies’ prospect is ready.  His trade value has reportedly gone up over the last year and now is the time to cash it in.  He’s a nice player we all like, but what he provides can be replaced on the free agent market.  I’d rather have Infante, CarGo, and Tulo than just Murphy.  With Todd Helton retiring, the Rockies will need a 1B.  While we all know of Ike Davis’s struggles, I could see him as a fit in Colorado.  With his newfound plate discipline and a move to Denver, he could be a very productive player for the Rockies going forward.  A rebuilding team like Colorado could take a chance on Ike (that he returns to form), as they will not be expecting to win in 2014.  Also, if Colorado wants a new 1B, there aren’t many attractive options on the market right now, so why not take a chance on someone with 30 HR power?  Puello has a great power/speed combination that should also play well in Colorado.  Although there are PED questions, the incident that led to his suspension occurred BEFORE his breakout season and I could see him being attractive to the Rox.  I included Ynoa as a throw-in ‘lottery ticket’ type that seems to go into deals these days.  He has upside but could just as easily be replaced with someone else from the lower levels of the system.

 

While I can logically make the case why this is an attractive package for Colorado, there is no telling if they would go for it.  But, that’s why I said it’s a starting point.  The only players I would not be willing to include in the deal are Wright, d’Arnaud, Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, and Syndergaard.  After that, EVERYONE should be available in negotiations.  While d’Arnaud’s name has been thrown around, I don’t see it happening given his struggles since promotion and the fact that Colorado already has Rosario at catcher.  The Rockies might not want all of the players listed, but the Mets could also use some of them to swap with a third team to put together a package the Rockies would find acceptable.

 

To me, this is a trade that has to be made.  Both players are All Stars, in their primes, available, and fit the Mets’ needs.  This move would instantly transform them into championship contenders and give them at least a 5-year window to compete for the WS.  If 2014 was to be the year of the rebirth, this is the way to make it happen.

 

There are of course the naysayers who will balk at the idea of making such a trade.  The first criticism will be the money and length of years on the contracts.  Well, if we want to win, there is going to have to be spending.  CarGo’s contract should be no problem; it’s the last bit of Tulo’s deal that worries some.  To me, it’s a chance the Mets have to take.  As a big market team, they can handle the risk.  By the time Tulo’s deal is winding down (2018-20), I’d expect the team’s money problems to be part of the past.  It’s enough time for the finances to get in order and adding two superstars to the middle of the lineup of a team with young star pitching should increase revenues exponentially.  As I compared previous moves (Choo and Infante) to other expenditures, the first years of CarGo and Tulo’s contracts are a reinvestment of Santana and Buck’s money.

 

The second criticism is that the Mets should not trade any young pitching.  In this case I don’t see the Mets trading pitching that they can’t live without.  The Big 4 of the rotation project to be Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, and Syndergaard, 3 pitchers with SP1 upside and a reliable LHP who can slot SP3.  True, injuries to pitchers might hurt the Mets in the short term, but this is a deal for the long term.  Also, there are pitchers like DeGrom and Mejia who can step up to fill a rotation spot if needed.  The Mets don’t have the luxury of waiting until we’re SURE about the health of certain players – there will always be questions and risk of injury in baseball.  If the Mets are holding on to pitching as tradable commodities for a later date, I ask for when?  What future magical deal would they be giving up to make this move now?  You have to strike while the iron is hot and it won’t get this hot again during this GM’s tenure.  There are fewer star players who can be acquired and this is a once-in-a-generation chance to get two of them in one fell swoop.  Having a core of Wright-Cargo-Tulo-d’Arnaud together for years with the pitching the Mets will still have in-house is worth this price.  Hell, in my estimation is would be CHEAP.  Holding off on making this deal would be a mistake.  I don’t advocate trading prospects for veterans just for the sake of doing so – I was lukewarm on the idea of acquiring Justin Upton last year and was not sad when we didn’t get him.  However, there ARE times to go for it.  When Generation K failed, the team didn’t get gun shy and hold onto AJ Burnett, Ed Yarnall, and Geoff Getz, they made the moves for Leiter and Piazza that transformed the team.  With the abundance of pitching the Mets have this trade is one that MAKES SENSE.  Sure, the Mets could sign Choo and Pence (maybe, as he will have other suitors including his current team the Giants) and hope for the best, but with the strength of the other teams in the division and the league it sounds like a recipe for mediocrity.  Maybe the Mets would compete for the playoffs, but adding the Rockies Twins would make them favorites.

 

5.  Trade for OF Joc Pederson of the Los Angeles Dodgers and a MIF prospect.



 

In addition to building a winner for 2014 and the next few seasons, I want to see this incarnation of the Mets succeed where previous ones have failed – namely, in planning for the future and creating a dynasty run rather than just a few years of success followed by excruciating years of losing.

 

Pederson has been discussed before, most recently at the trade deadline.  He will likely begin 2014 in AAA and be ready for promotion sometime in the middle of next year.  He is, however, currently blocked in his current organization.  His combination of youth, speed, power, and defense would bring another dimension to the Mets’ crop of young players.  There is no one like him in the system and he could be added to the core that’s being built.  I see him coming up and becoming the starting CF and hitting at the bottom of the lineup, moving Lagares and MDD to the bench.  Then, as his career progresses and Choo moves off the books, Pederson could rotate up to the top of the lineup to take his place just as Joc is hitting the prime of his career.

 

I would also target a MIF prospect that can be ready in a year or two.  The plan would be to have a young player ready to take over for Infante, either when his contract is up or even a year before.  Planning internal and long term solutions to replace these short term players (Choo and Infante) will provide the Mets flexibility in their options, both from a personnel standpoint as well as from a financial standpoint as they could then reinvest all of the almost $20M tied up in Choo and Infante.  I would obviously target top young talent like short stops Addison Russell and Javier Baez, shifting them to 2B with SS tied down by Tulowitzki.  The plan would include moving the young 2B to the top of the lineup as well with Pederson once the time is right.  I doubt Russell of Baez would be available, but I would be looking at players in that mold.



 

When it comes to trading for top young prospects, I’m at a loss to suggest pieces as I don’t know what the Mets will still have to offer once the blockbuster for CarGo and Tulo is made, nor do I know what their current teams would require in trade.  However, I want this team to walk and chew gum at the same time, plan for today as well as tomorrow.

 

 

 

After all of this, the lineup in 2014 would look like:

 

1)   RF Choo (15)

2)   2B Infante (7)

3)   3B Wright (20)

4)   LF Gonzalez (10.5)

5)   SS Tulowitzki (16)

6)   1B Duda/Satin (1)

7)   CF den Dekker/Lagares; Pederson (1.5)

8)   Ca D’Arnaud (0.5)

 

SP1 Harvey (0.5)

SP2 Wheeler (0.5)

SP3 Niese (5)

SP4 Arroyo (12)

SP5 Torres; Syndergaard (1)

 

That’s a total payroll of about $90M while not accounting for the bullpen or bench.  It gives the fans a winning team to root for and keeps the payroll at what should be an acceptable level for our ownership.

 

First base would be held down by a Duda/Satin platoon.  Duda is at his best in the field (and as a hitter) when he’s playing 1B.  He has a .864 OPS for his career while playing 1B and against RHP he has 25HR and 97 RBI over 571 AB’s.  Satin has been playing well since his call-up and would make a great platoon partner for Duda.  I don’t see a 1B platoon as a long term solution, but with the lineup constructed as is, these two players can be great complimentary pieces to the stars on the team, especially hitting lower in the batting order.

 

A CF platoon of Matt den Dekker and Juan Lagares would provide great defense if nothing else.  Their offensive shortcomings would be hidden in a strong lineup and the team could live with them until Pederson is ready.  Once he hits the big time (assuming he hits enough to be a full-time regular), MDD and Lagares would slide to the bench.

 

For now, I’m not touching on the Matt Harvey injury and what could or could not happen.  Since he seems to be bent on attempting rehab over surgery, I’m going with the optimistic view and assuming he’ll be ready Opening Day.  If not, Wheeler, Niese, and Arroyo could be the leaders of the rotation, with Torres holding down the spot until Thor is ready and Mejia, DeGrom, a vet FA, or a surprise pitcher could fill the SP5 place for the year.  Once Thor is promotes, Torres (who has performed rather well as a starter) would shift back to the bullpen, increasing the Mets’ performance there.

 

As mentioned earlier, making these moves would have the Mets as WS contenders as early as next year and open a 5-year window of contention.  We have waited long enough for the team to get its act together and put a winning product on the field.  2014 was supposed to be the year and it still should be.