Reports are that Terry Collins will receive a 2-year extension, with a third year team option.
I think this is an extremely bad decision and will gladly discuss this here today in 'The War Room'.
And... I see than Hunter Pence has signed a $90mil extension... what does this do to the OF-FA market and what's the going rate on Choo?
Your thoughts...
I agree that I don't think Collins has done anything to warrant a 2 year extension. He knew what he was getting into when he took this job and hasn't done a terrible job but I really hate the way he's used the bullpen and some of the other decisions he's made.
ReplyDeleteI believe the Pence extension has priced Choo out of our market. Choo & Pence are about equal. Pence has more power but Choo gets on base more. 5/90 is probably the min. Choo will sign for, which is something that would be a mistake for the Mets.
The Hunter Pence $90mil extension has just guaranteed that the Mets will not be bidding for the services of Cincinnati OF Shin-Soo Choo. Agent Scott Boras will take the Pence contract and turn this into a $125mil+ deal for Choo, something Sandy Alderson simply isn’t going to do. This is not how the 21st century New York Mets operate. It is not worth my time and effort to serve up an opinion here because it it’s going to happen. This doesn’t mean the Mets won’t be active in the off season but it does mean that the cost of buying someone else’s all-star continues to price itself out of the profit and loss statement of a team like the Mets.
ReplyDeleteThe sport is changing. Everybody needs to produce their own stars and extend them through the productive years of their career. The David Wright contract is a perfect example of what I am talking about. The Jon Niese contract falls in the same category.
Next in line was supposed to be Ike Davis, followed by Bobby Parnell and Daniel Murphy. I would add Dillon Gee to the mix and structure a 4-year deal for Gee, Parnell, and Murphy, through the 2017 season. My only hesitation would be a medical clearance on Parnell.
The 2014-2015 off-season… a deal for Matt Harvey…
The 2015-2016 off-season… a deal for Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud…
Past that, the Mets need to keep trying to find the solution to first base, shortstop, and three outfield positions. None may be on the team now. One (Cesar Puello) may rise from the minors next year. But the priority in the future is first to make sure the best players you have aren’t going anywhere during the same time you’re trying to add to that base.
Look, anything can happen here. Matt den Dekker could wind up leading the league in hitting while Lucas Duda could hit 35 home runs. These could happen but probably won’t. This year’s season by Juan Lagares prove that any or all of us can get this scouting shit wrong. Should I add his name to my roster and slot him in as, not only the future Mets centerfielder, but also a star of this game?
A lot to discuss.
I don´t like the Collins extention etheir. I think this offseason some trades and additions will happen and I truly belive the team will be better on opening day 2014 than it was 2013. In my opinion 2014 will be something like the "start" to competition and my thinking is that with the "start" there should be a differnt Manager who brings something new. Like move on from the last 3 years with new players and a new manager with new ideas and new energy.
ReplyDeleteResigning Collins is puzzling to me. Collins and Alderson did not seem to be on the same page much of the time. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a Wilpon decision. A reward for giving Ike more chances than deserved.
ReplyDeleteI think the mets have a greater need at short and first. Surpisingly, they appear to have more viable internal options in the outfield in Puelllo and MDD. I'd go for Tulo and Abaeu, the a short term option like Byrd.
Morning guys. Im sticking with ,the Mets signing 4 or 5 guys at 10 to 13 million a year. At shorter terms
ReplyDeleteI think you're wrong about Choo, Mack. He should see a similar deal and Sandy will be interested in it.
ReplyDeleteTerry Collins as this team's manager is also a plus. Fans just get bitter about losing. Well, there's a lack of talent. I haven't seen anything about Collins as a manager that tells me he isn't a championship team manager. Give most managers the right talent and they'll win. The status of manager is vastly overrated in baseball and TC has respect amongst his players and the organization. That's about all you need.
Anyone willing to give Choo more then 18 million a year has lost their mind. The Giants severely over paid Pence. Choo is a 12 to 15 million dollar a year player. The Reds cetainly aren't going to give Choo 5 years and 90 million dollars. When you start looking at the teams that can afford that type of contract the market thins very quickly. I don't see the Red Sox,Yankees,Angels or Dodgers bidding on Choo. When I look at all the teams out their in both leagues the only teram I can really come up with is the Cubs. Either the organizations can't spend that type of money or the team does not need an outfielder. Boras may ask for 100 million+ but I just don't see it.
ReplyDeleteI kind of believe that Choo falls in the Michael Bourn category as a lead off guy and will get a deal closer to that rather then a deal like Pence got. Pence got his deal because he's a run producer who hits for power. Choo's power is a product of playing in two small parks his whole career.
ReplyDeleteI think Choo ends up with a deal somewhere in the middle of what Bourn and Pence got. Now does that price him out of what the mets will spend? Maybe, but maybe not. They seemed willing to cough up 48 million last year for Bourn and I'm inclined to think that they value Choo's obp skills a lot more then Pence's power.
As far as Terry is concerned, I think Sandy and company value him as a tireless worker who doesn't rock the boat. He'll remain relatively cheap and because of that, he'll remain manager. Look, the mets aren't going after a big name manager, it's not their style. I'd rather someone else, but at the same time, if the Mets have a great team, I don't think Terry would cost them a championship.
Hello all
ReplyDeleteI think Terry's deal was ok. He has done well with the team considering he was given a minor league roster ever since his tenure. I think you can look at any manager and find a weakness. In reality, how much does a manager effect a team over the course of a season anyway? Good players are good players and they will produce, regardless of the manager. I do not see the terry signing as a bad thing nor something to be excited about.
As for Pence, wow what the hell!!!! I think it does make Choo more expensive, but only slightly. Choo can't hit lefties, but gets on base. Pence plays a decent center, choo has been rated horrible defensively in all actuality. He has had a tag of being a good defender, not the case though.
Two things can happen because I believe Alderson will get something done.
1. We know we suck and we need to overpay to get people in...So he coughs up the money to sign Choo.
2. He gets busy on those phones and brings us better players via trade.
I still think we need to solidify the pitching and sign Garza to a deal.
Now about this draft pick! If the Mets do sign someone who has had a qualifying offer, I say the mets will than draft a high school kid that will be a bit of a reach. Losing their 2nd and possibly their 3rd rround pick will push them to spread that draft pool money around to the later rounds and we will see us reach a bit to have that luxury.
Needless to say it will be an interesting offseason and an interesting looking Draft.... Steps in the right direction. LETS GO METS!!!
It doesn't bother anyone else that the Mets wasted the final two months not seeing what they have in Matt DenDekker, Jeurys Familia, Wilfredo Tovar, Wilmer Flores and others? My gripe with Collins is that he consistently buries young players for the first two months they are on the roster. I just don't get why the Mets didn't try to figure out they had with the younger players. As far as off season goes, I would rather the Mets sign Byrd, Beltran, Abreu and trade for a shortstop or just let Tovar and Tejada fight it out to see who is going to be starting shortstop and bat eighth. If I had a choice between going all in for Choo or Ellsbury I would go all in for Ellsbury. I wouldn't give more than a five year deal to either Choo or Ellsbury which is why I would rather players like Byrd and Beltran that can be phased out more easily when Puello and whoever else might surprise whether it be Den Dekker, Vaughn, Lawley, or whoever else we might trade for or emerges from the minors.
ReplyDeleteAny ideas of which of the potential first rounds picks that might fall to the 7 to 10 range are the closest to major league ready and should the Mets change their draft philosophy now that they are supposed to moving into a contending stage. It looks like to me the Mets best bet in the 7 to 10 range is to draft a high end high school prospect but what does everyone else think?
ReplyDeleteI agree. Power is the premium tool. Pence has it, Choo doesn't. Plus Choo is older. Choo could be this year's Bourne, the odd man out.
ReplyDeleteI should have read this before I posted.
ReplyDelete+1 on both points.
I think they view Collins as an organization guy. So if managing doesn't work out then he'll do something else for the money. I don't see this as an ironclad two year deal to manage.
Terry: I’ve always felt that for the middle 2/3rds of MLB managers, talent determines success. TC resides in that percentile. Maybe the top 5 can steal 4 or 5 games above talent level. I had thought that they silence over Collins might have had something to do with Scocia’s fate—maybe not.
ReplyDeleteChoo/Ellsbury, etc: I think you’re right, Mack, long-term, near $20MM for those two in particular (for different reasons) are not going to be on SA’s menu. But if $20MM is the new gold standard, not the outlier, Tulo could be in the mix. It would probably take Wheeler, Ike + … (if it took too much more, I want Drew Pomeranz & Kyle Parker in addition). Sign Beltran, let Duda/Satin hold the fort for Dominic.
I agree with Mark on Beltran Abreu or Byrd. Choo would make the Mets better but he is not the piece that will put us over the top. I think they should be patient in spending their money. Something better will come along and they'll have their hands tied because of a long term Choo contract.
ReplyDeleteWe can hope for Beede if we have the #7. To early to make predictions.
To the Collins deal. If it is what they are reporting its really a 1 year deal, bc firing a manager with only one year left is financially palatable, which is probably the only reason Scioscia stays in LA. he has too many years left at too much money to be fired. however if the mets take a step forward then collins is cheap for two more years. Its the way of not making someone a lame duck manager but also not fully committing. If the mets dont break 500 next year cllins will be gone and the new GM will bring in a new manager as Alderson departs.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to free agents, now that we arent worried about the pick, it is about years not money. To alderson's philosophy, 4 years 76 mm for Choo (19mm per) is better then 5 years 80 mm (16 mm per). because it provides more flexibility. i know that seems strange, but what kills your payroll isnt albert pujols being a 30 mm per year cost, its albert pujols being a 30mm cost and playing like a 12 mm player so you also need to add another guy. They theory is to pay more for peak performance in order to avoid years where you are paying for less than peak so you have to add money and players to make up the difference.
I think you are going to see the mets make an honest run at either ellsbury or choo, but get out bid on ellsbury (stays in boston or goes to Seattle). I dont think choo stays with Cin (if there is even an inkling of him taking the qualifier they wont qualify him) bc their budget wont allow a 15 mm outfielder. Im not sure where he goes as who needs a 18 mm outfielder w no power and has the money for him. Al east? nope. Al Central, maybe? NL west, the Padres?
I expect this winter the mets will be making a trade or two with either Colo or Tampa bay? You know alderson likes a threeway so who knows.
Nelson Cruz,Bird, Beltrán, Hart, Garza, ABREU.....most of them around 10-15 MM . NO Choo.
ReplyDeleteSupposedly, this is a deep draft. I'd be pretty pissed if they pass on BPA and try to stretch the slot money. It looks as if they might actually end up under the tenth pick. If that's the case, they need to grab the best guy available. The last time this team grabbed the best player available, they got a pitcher named Harvey .
ReplyDeleteTheir current draft strategy is going to set the Mets up wonderfully in 2017/18. It's about time they either take a guy capable of becoming a number 1 pitcher or a bat that can hopefully hit 35/40 homers one day.
Mark, I agree. Watching Collins play Baxter these past few days has been probably the biggest head scratcher I've seen all year. I don't understand it and actually think it might have been about losing instead of winning.
ReplyDeleteWhy else would he do that? It's a subtle move, but stupid nonetheless. DD brings defense and a better bat than Baxter.
I'm also pretty let down that Wilmer has been hurt. I think if he had consistent playing time the last few months, he would've proven to be a bat they could count on next year.
They'll go for Choo, but won't severely overpay. I think Sandy will ultimately do what Boston did and try to sign multiple players to shorter contracts. They'll look to remain flexible with their payroll moving forward, but also not sit back and do nothing.
ReplyDeleteI think Abreu will end up in Texas. I just can't see Sandy laying out 50 million to a guy without a track record in the majors. Supposedly, he's a great bat, but sucks on defense. That's going to be an issue.
As for the manager it's really much ado about nothing. They're paying him chump change and left themselves with flexibility after next season when Sandy leaves. If we're still a sub .500 team TC won't be the only one who leaves and it doesn't saddle the new GM with someone he can't replace. As for free agents I never believed that we wouldn't see what we ALWAYS see when free agency rolls around "the one dumb owner" scenario and the Pence deal certainly qualifies. You would think after 40 friggin years they would finally wise up but big money ego and arrogance always rules. I do believe Sandy has done a good job to this point and stayed with his plan much to our dismay because we want results NOW! Five years of terrible boring play is along time but I have to have faith he'll really step forward this winter but any big improvement will really have to come via the trade route which has been his strong suit.
ReplyDeleteGlad Mets are finally honoring Mike Piazza today. Piazza was a great catcher for the Mets but for me my favorite Mets catchers of all time would be John Stearns, Todd Hundley, Gary Carter, and then Mike Piazza. Probably a combination of pride in homegrown talent and when I grew up but something about Stearns and his tackling the one fan that decided to run on field and his gritty play puts him as number one catcher for me. Now for one dig at the Wilpons'. Is Piazza being honored for Mets career or for being a former Dodger? I would love to see the Mets bring back old timers day and may be have a special day each month of season to honor each decade of the Mets. So let's say April would be honoring the 1960's and have one day where the some of the old Mets from the 60's would be honored at a game but at all the games for that month they would show high lights before the game and say during the seventh inning stretch.
ReplyDeleteMark, the Mets under Alderson don't draft that way.
ReplyDeleteThey will go high school at slot... and then will probably lose their 2nd and 2rd round pick
I mean 2nd and 3rd
ReplyDeleteWell, you and I have different opinions on the OF but that is fine. I honestly don't think the Mets have one viable player in the system that will some day become an all-star outfielder.
ReplyDeletePuello could be a serviceable every day player and Nimmo could develop into a decent #2 hitter, but, past that, your two top prospects would be very raw... Wuilmer Becerra and Ricardo Cespedes.
Stephen is probably the lone voice saying he supported the Collins decision.
ReplyDeleteI won't go into the well traveled road of his ponderous in-game managing, his lineups and his burning out of the bullpen, but the thing that burns me the most is what was echoed here about his passive-aggressive use of rookies. He only plays them if there is no other option left and then bats then 8th with no protection and wonders why they don't do better at the plate.
If they really wanted to signal to the fans that they were serious about turning a corner towards contention, Alderson should have called on his old manager La Russa and lured him out of retirement. INSTANT respectability! Instead they have become yet another late night monologue punchline.
I can see them picking Sean Newcomb. He seems to be sloted at about were the Mets could be picking. Big, strong, power lefty. He looks like a left handed Syndergard, 6'5" 240 pounds. Not as good as Syndergaard though. He can go straight to high A.
ReplyDeleteStill believe it would be wiser to sign 4-5 guys to shorter deals 3 or 4years at around 10-13 million. Then to sign 2 guys at 17-20 million for longer term deals.
ReplyDeleteSo the Mets are picking 10th. I'm hoping Gettys or Flaherty make it that far, so they'll probably go to the BJs and Philthies. No way Gatewood drops.
ReplyDeleteShould be a good pick no matter what. Too high of a pick to make a stretch so have to figure will be one of the more well known prospects. This is a very fluid position but should be able to get a potentially great player. The only caveat here is that with the new draft structure I think the Mets plan has been to save some money with first and second round pick to spend later in the draft. Makes it more likely that will be high school player which is fine with me. I think the Mets should be taking the highest ceiling players and not necessarily safe pick and the high school players usually are the high risk higher reward players. As far as which players will be drated where remember that someone might have a nagging injury or need TJS or just have high contract demands so there is no telling who might be available or who might emerge from now until next June.
ReplyDeleteEnjoying reading all of the comments so far.
ReplyDeleteI do not think that Terry has done anything great as a manager but he has been a good soldier for the organization and he does deserve a shot to manage the team when the minor league talent and possibly an impact free agent or two. If he fails, its a cheep two year contract so it shouldn't be binding if the Mets struggle.
While I love the idea of Choo being added to the lineup, I really do not think that overpaying to add talent is the way to go. I would much rather the Mets stay the course and develop the talent they have. I am fine with another year or three waiting for everyone to arrive and make some trades along the way. I know there have been some lean years but I would rather take the time and stay the course instead of rushing and handing out bad contracts.
I read that there has been some questioning of Sandy's drafts the past few years but I am fine with it. While he does not always take the best player available and passes up on guys we would all love (Gioloto comes to mind), his strategy has paid off with some other additions. Cecchini could have been a reach but all in all, I am please with the caliber of players he has brought in. Nimmo, Smith, Plawecki, Ivan Wilson, and Miesner just to name a few. Although he hasn't drafted the big stud yet, he has brought in a lot of depth while still adding some higher ceiling players. If you include Rosario and the trades, he has really done a nice job of positioning the Mets to have a solid pipeline with lots of depth, especially with the arms.
Great comments! I am excited, as tomorrow feels like opening day to me. I am neutral on retaining Collins, I think the real issue is the 25 man roster for 2014 opening day. Alderson can go in many directions here, but the Mets clearly need to be active and make some significant changes to the roster. Words mean nothing, it's all about actions.
ReplyDeleteI'm pleased with the TC deal. Sure, I'm pissed about him playing Baxter over den Dekker, but maybe it was a showcase thing. Flores was probably rested because of his ankle. Centeno and Tovar did get some decent time. The key thing to me is that his players played their hearts out for him on every play.
ReplyDeleteI am virtually positive that there will be some major additions this off season. Too many people in the organization have been talking up the fact that they have the money. Today, David Wright said that they have the money and the trade chips to add the players they need to contend next year.
Re: Choo, if the market doesn't develop early, Sandy knows how to wait things out. But if he really wants him, he'll go strong. Almost a year older than Pence, he may not need to go 5 years. Four years $80 million (avg $19 mil/yr plus a 5th yr option with a $4 mil buyout) should be enough. If Boras doesn't bite I wouldn't be surprised to see Sandy go short with a 2 yr offer to Cruz, Byrd or Beltran. In either case, I think he will seek to acquire another offensive veteran outfielder via trade.
I have a feeling we will see Ike open at 1B next April. It's hard for me to envision SA going for Abreu, and I don't see any quality alternatives on the trade market and certainly no FAs. Lucas has done absolutely nothing to claim the job. I hope Sandy can convince Dan O'Dowd that with a change of scenery, Duda can be a 40 HR guy and replace Helton for the Rocks.
There are just so many combinations and permutations of what we might do this off season, it's kinda crazy to talk specifics. I'm looking forward to the next few month with bated breath.
I like everything you have said so far... about a team that may have success in 2017-2018
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