Herb G asks –
Mack ~ There has been some talk recently that the Brewers may want to part with Ryan Braun and the baggage he carries. Would you be interested in Braun if you were Sandy? Many of us have been talking up the possibility of signing Nelson Cruz, despite the Biogenesis link and the PED possibilities. True, Braun has the additional stigma of the way he handled the original allegations against him and his unconscionable accusations of the courier who collected his samples. There may be a character issue there, although Braun has previously been portrayed as a positive clubhouse influence with an engaging personality. What do you think? Would you or wouldn't you?
Mack - Baseball, like most professional sports, are full of type A, high ego owners, front office personnel, managers, and players. In addition, there is a fan base that hates to be lied to. There’ a good chance that Braun could be wearing out his welcome in Milwaukee, a team that is going nowhere for a very long time. Cruz fucked up, but Braun stood in front of microphones and told teenage fans that he did nothing. This simply doesn’t hack it in Midwest cities
On the other hand, like Marlon Byrd has proven, the statute of limitations new fans have on these druggies don’t last that long.
You may not read this anywhere, but Braun’s contract is available ($20mil thru 2020). It would only take a few marginal prospects to add to a deal that would be designed to highlight that if you lie like a rug, you hit the road (BTW, SP Yorvani Gallardo is also available for the taking ($11.5mil thru 2014).
People forgive, but not in the same town.
Blaine Blontz –
Mets rumors: Aaron Harang open to return - http://www.mlbinjurynews.com/2013/10/mets-rumors-aaron-harang-open-to-return.html
Mack – Reports from camp (yes, many of the minor league suits are meeting today at the St. Lucie complex to plan for the 2014 season) is that Jenrry Mejia will be just fine on opening day. That means you go to camp with four (Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and Mejia) of your eventual 2014 rotation.
The plan is for Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero to make it to Flushing sometime in June. Montero could be headed to the pen if the other guys mentioned here are having a good season.
Either way, the Mets need someone to pitch SP5 for at least two months and Harang would be the perfect candidate. He’s a strikeout machine that pitched very well (3.532, 1.39) over the four Mets starts. He also may be one of the only FA pitchers available for a one-year contract.
Devin Pangaro -
Mets' intrigued by Cuban defector Jose Abreu - http://www.mlbinjurynews.com/2013/10/mets-intrigued-by-cuban-defector-jose.html
Mack – I don’t believe this. This is fiction writing on a slow news day. The Sandy Alderson-Mets simply do not operate this way. They are not going to dish out a minimum of 4-yrs, $28mil to a Cuban who had, what, 300 at bats last season in a Cuban league? That’s not major league baseball. Sure, there’s been a couple of real good players to come out of the Cuban system the past few years, but the majority of them don’t make it in the majors. The Mets are very high on Dominic Smith who’s ETA is 2017 at the latest. I’m hoping for a 3-yr. Mike Napoli deal here but my gut tells me that Ike Davis is going to get another shot.
(Andy Martino said on Daily News Live! that the Mets will not pursue Jose Abreu because they believe they have internal 1B candidates.)
My Top 15 –
1. RHP Noah Syndergaard
2. C Travis d’Arnaud
3. RHP Rafael Montero
4. OF Brandon Nimmo
4.5 1B Dominic Smith
5. SS Gavin Cecchini
6. 2B Dilson Herrera
7. IF Wilmer Flores
8. OF Cesar Puello
9. LHP Steven Matz
10. RHP Gabriel Ynoa
11. RHRP Vic Black
12. C Kevin Plawecki
13. RHRP Jeff Walters
14. OF Dustin Lawley
15. SS Amed Rosario
Josh Chapdelaine –
1B/RF Corey Hart: Hart sat on the sidelines during the 2013 season after undergoing left knee surgery and will return to big league action in 2014. The 32-year-old has traditionally been an exceptionally poor defender in right field but has been slightly less of a liability at first base. Luckily, Hart has enough pop to make his defensive woes more bearable. He has connected for 20 home runs or more in five of six full campaigns and has traditionally ranked as 20-30% greater than the average offensive player. Hart has stated that he wishes to return to Milwaukee, but if the two were to split he could provide a nice alternative to Ike Davis or Lucas Duda if either or both falter. http://aroundciti.com/exploring-low-risk-options-for-the-new-york-mets/
Mack – Yeah, that’s what I want in the outfield… a poor defender and then, added to that, knee surgery. I happen to agree with Andy Martino about internal options at first base. You go after Mike Napoli and, if that isn’t accomplishable, you let Duda and Davis fight it out in spring training.
I agree with your take on the rotation. Your opening day rotation starts with Wheeler, Niese, Gee & Mejia. I think this team will really push to move either Gee or Montero this offseason in a deal for a big bat. If they are able to move Montero, they could have Dice-K & Harang fight it out in Spring training and stash the other in AAA. It wouldn't be difficult to fit Syndergaard Into the rotation come summertime. If they go out and sign a pitcher to a 3 year deal, then I think Gee will be shipped out.
ReplyDeleteThe good news is there are a lot of pitching options out there so the front office can get creative
I think the Mets need to add more pitching. I am all for a DiceK/Harang type to challenge for the SP5, but I think they clearly need a legit MLB starter on a 2 year deal in the $15-$20 mil total range. A guy like Kazmir, Arroyo, Feldman. I could even live with Hughes on a one year with incentives, I think there is a good chance he performs well in the NL and in Cirifield, where a lot of those HRs he gave up in the crackerjack ballparks will land in Juan Lagares' glove. I am all in on the young pitching, but Syndy should not be rushed. I like Mejia but he has always bee hurt and cannot be counted on for 30 starts. Between Gee, Niese, and Wheeler, none have throw 200 innings (okay, Gee had 199 last year), and all of them had some arm or shoulder issues last year. These guys are always one pitch from the DL, and the Mets lost two starters to TJ last year. I see no down side in adding a legit MLB starter and creating real, true depth to manage and deal from. It would also tell the fans they mean business in 2014, and aren't cutting corners and counting pennies to save for the other needs. They need to add pitching and hitting, not one or the other. There will be guys that fit this role that can be hand a on a one or two year deal. No excuses.
ReplyDeleteAs far as fans forgetting, I don't think the new town matters much. Cruz got a standing ovation on his day back. A standing O!
ReplyDeleteWe wrote about Braun quite a lot a few weeks back over at "2 Guys," I'd take him in a heartbeat. I don't think the Brewers will be giving him away.
Strange that list of Top 15, below Syndergaard & Montero, there's not much pitching there yet, despite the widespread assumption that the Mets are loaded with pitching. Outside of Fulmer -- who has had serious injury issues -- where are the frontline guys? In three drafts, Sandy has passed on Gray, Wacha, Fernandez. Guys who are contributing right now. What promising starters have we drafted? Maybe it's too soon to tell, but I'm not seeing that stud.
When they talk internal options at 1B, I could cry.
Please explain the math to me where it makes sense to spend $15 million or so on a two-year deal for a second or third tier starter, but you can't promote from within because your own youngsters might command more money in arbitration several years down the road? I guess I missed that day of Mets-onomics.
ReplyDeleteNo Dom Smith in the top 15?
ReplyDeleteBraun? If the Mets are able to get their guy in CarGo and the Brewers were willing to dump Braun for the cost of marginal players Id take the risk on him.
ReplyDeleteWright-Gonzalez-Braun could be a formidable middle of the order for the Mets.
To me, any early news of Mejia being healthy and ready to go means that management will NOT be spending much on an innings eater.
ReplyDeletePlus, do Montero and Degrom project as starters or relievers?
Reese,
ReplyDeleteI am not suggesting bringing in a 2nd or third tier starter as an economic move to defer bringing up kids to push back arbitration years. I am suggesting bringing in a pitcher of that ilk as a plan to win in 2014 and beyond and protect the young pitching and add the necessary depth to the starting pitching that a winning team wins. I have no problem with Montero or Mejia making the team out of spring training, except that the question becomes how many starts and innings will they get if fully healthy over the entire season? These kids can't cover a fully season if healthy, plus what happens if or should I say when Niese, Gee, and/or Wheeler go on the DL? Syndy just turned 21, hasn't thrown a pitch in AAA, and only threw 117 innings last year. Mejia has never thrown 110 innings in any one season. DeGrom threw 147 and Montero 155. They need one pitcher that can be a solid bet for 200 innings, and then they can sprinkle in the kids when performance merits and/or guys get hurt, and, if things went really really well, trade from strength at the deadline. The projected salaries in 2016 and 2017 have nothing to do with the suggestion.
Kevin -
ReplyDeleteThe Mets strength is their pitching and adding a veteran for one, maybe two years will only help this team.
I think you just need a one-year guy, what with Syndegaard and Montero coming up sometime in 2014... and you just know Harvey will be ready opening day 2015
Personally, I would love to see Kazmir back with a Mets uniform on
ReplyDeleteJames, you make a very good point about the starters drying up. The good news is the 2015 rotation will be locked up for around 5 years.
ReplyDeleteAs of right now, there is no SP1 in the system. A few SP2 candidates... Matz... Flexen... but, yes, the floodgates have closed
Did I leave him out?
ReplyDeleteDOH
I added him in at 4.5 :)
Don't be surprised if Gee doesn't become that innings eater you are looking for.
ReplyDeleteInnings eater??? Enter Bronson Arroyo.
ReplyDeletePitching side of things i'd love the Mets to sign
Arroyo for the ininngs he'll provide.
Josh Johnson with an incentive rich deal
and Joe Smith for the Pen
I been wondering why the Mets don't mention Mejia as part of the 2014 rotation. To me, he showed a lot this year in improvement and pitching smarts. Mejia, to me, is the dark horse in the rotation that might allow the Mets to trade Gee later on.
ReplyDeleteRyan Braun would be a great fit for the Mets but not if they have to play all that money. I think he can be had with the Brewers kicking in some money in order to get better prospects. It is better for the Brewers and Braun to part ways and both know it.
But you know who I really rather have from them? Carlos Gomez. Gomez RF, Lagares CF, den Dekker LF (Puello when he is ready) and man oh man..I like it.
There was always only two things wrong with Mejia. One, he had only one pitch. And two, it never hit the zone.
ReplyDeleteHe now pounds the zone with his heat and has added the sickness to his bread and butter changeup that acts like a sinker. This is the pitch everyone was chasing after last season.
I was blown away by Meija's stuff this year. He looked great.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: Price is probably on the market. Do you think the Rays would bite at one or two of our top pitching (cheap- under control) prospects?
Would you trade Syndegaard/Montero for Price?
Maybe I should also ask the reverse. would Wilpon trade cheap talent for a proven $13 million proven star lefty?
ReplyDeleteThat's funny... I just wrote a piece on Price for tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteI do think Tampa Bay is open for a trade to a team that can deliver at least 4 quality young pre-ARB prospects.... and the Mets can.
This team is broke and has less attendance than Miami. It's not just getting rid of Price's salary. It's replacing it with 4 players totaling $2mil/yr.
In this case, it would be Alderson's decision and, yes he would if he could negotiate a deal with Price for 4 years or less that starts at $15mil in 2014.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing about the Rays.... they have bunch of players that just hit free agency and some of their best talent is going into arbitration.
A player like Daniel Murphy means nothing to them because of his ARB status, but Wilmer Flores would be a good one.
I think a lot depends on whether they move Gee (or Niese) for a big bat this winter. If they go into Spring Training with the Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia quartet in tact, you are more likely to see a veteran pitcher like Santana, Johnson or Hudson signed to a 1 year deal. If Gee or Niese is dealt, the Kazmir-Arroyo-Feldman option gets more consideration. If their rotation is having a good season, it wouild allow them to go slow with Synders. I still believe that Montero is likely to be shipped out.
ReplyDeleteBraun's contract is not bad at all if he is anywhere near the player he has been. $117 million for 7 years, but only $10 million in 2014 (which leaves plenty of salary flex for additional acquisitions) and it declines in his final years, mirroring his likely decline in performance.
ReplyDeleteYear-Age-Salary
2014 30 $10,000,000
2015 31 $12,000,000
2016 32 $19,000,000
2017 33 $19,000,000
2018 34 $19,000,000
2019 35 $18,000,000
2020 36 $16,000,000
2021 37 *$20,000,000 - $20M Mutual Option, $4M Buyout
We paid Beltran $19 milliona year in his time with us. I think I would eat the maney and save the talent.