Arizona Fall League @MLBazFallLeague - Chasen Bradford (#Mets) locks down the save as Scottsdale beats Surprise 2-1Mack – Let’s review Bradford, who has an outside chance of making Queens sometime next season.
Bradford was a 35th round pick in 2011 out of the Central Florida (2011 – 6-2, 5.30… 2010 – 4-3, 5.59) via the College of Southern Nevada (2009 – 4-1, 3.83… 2008 – 3-1, 3.68). He finished the 2011 season for Kingsport, going 0-0. 3.51, in 21-G, 33.1-IP and 37-K.
It got better in Savannah in 2012… 37-G, 4-5, 2.47, 1.12, which led to a decent half season for St. Lucie last year (30-G, 6-2, 3.71, 43.2-IP, 43-K), and an unconscious finish for Binghamton (20-G, 3-1, 0.71, 1.07).
MLBProspectWatch.com was not kind to him prior to his AFL debut: The Mets selection of Bradford is largely based on his minuscule 0.71 ERA in a half-season at Double-A Binghamton after a promotion from the Florida State League, but that number is completely misleading. The sub-one ERA is largely a product of help on balls in play (.240 BABIP), a high strand rate (82 percent LOB%) and just one of his fly balls allowed leaving the ballpark. Pitchers whose strikeouts dip to 6.4 K/9 simply don't post sub-one ERA's. His 3.24 FIP was actually higher than it had been in A-ball where he had actually been slightly unlucky. In short, he's not anything more than a low-ceiling middle-relief prospect, and if the Mets decision to use an AFL spot on him was to see if he can sustain his strong second half, then it's a waste of a spot.
He’s known as a strike throwing sinker ball pitcher
I brought up OF Dustin Lawley again yesterday and there was some questions about him. Let’s review…
Lawley was a 19th round pick in 2011 out of the University of West Florida, via Wallace State Community College. He hit .338/.410/.577, 10-HR, 61-RBI in his final year for UWF (52-9…teammate was fellow Mets minor league outfielder Greg Pron).
He came to the pros as a 22-year old and finished the 2011 season with Savannah (11-AB, 1-HR, 1-RBI) after hitting .284/.325/.500/.825, 9-HR, 43-RBI for Kingsport.
That’s a combined 20-HR, 105-RBI season,
Lawley settled in for a full season in Savannah (2012 – 482-AB, .261/.333/.434/.767, 14-HR, 66-RBI) then moved on to St. Lucie in 2013 (469-AB, .260/.313/.512/.825, 25-HR, 92-RBI. He led the league in home runs and was one RBI short of also leading the league in that category.
Lawley has never been one to produce a top batting average (3-year average - .266), but you can’t discount the .481 slugging percentage. He actually finished year with twenty at-bats for Las Vegas, but I still expect him back in Binghamton. A lot of fans are very concerned about the slowness regarding how the Mets elevate their prospects, but trust me, if he gets off to a good start at the AA level, he will be promoted to AAA by the all-star break and be ready to compete for a Queens outfield (backup third base) slot on opening day 2015.
Leading the Eastern League in home runs would sure boost fan confidence here.
While we’re on the subject of UWF, Lawley, and Pron… Pron was actually the big hitter of that UWLL team, going .423/.486/.677/1.164,10-HR, 69-RBI in only 220-at bats. He was drafted in the 42nd round after advise from the same Mets scout; however, so far, it hasn’t worked out well for him. He did hit .318 for Kingsport in 2011, but has hit .240 and .187 the past two years for Savannah. He also finished 2013 as a 24-year old.
Jose Abreu agrees to deal with White Sox
Mack – You didn’t really think…
Angels claim LHP Robert Carson. LHP Sean Henn & RHP Greg Burke were outrighted. Dodgers claim OF Mike Baxter. Mets 40-man is at 36.
Mack – There were no big losses here and if any of them come back and have a great season, good for them. None had a future with the Mets in 2014.
Scott Boras told reporters at Dodger Stadium that Matt Harvey's Tommy John surgery will be in about a week
Mack – Bout’ time… I guess I’m just being impatient but I’ll be much happier when this stage is in the rear view mirror.
Wally Backman will be back with the Mets in 2014.
Mack – I’m not sure how happy this makes TC feel, but Backman has done a good job for the Mets and we should be happy to have him teaching the kids in Vegas.
Adam Rubin –
The Mets signed Jonathon Niese to a five-year, $25.5 million deal that also included a pair of team options on the eve of the 2012 season, while the southpaw still was under the team's control for four more seasons. Do not expect any comparable multi-year deals this offseason for players under the Mets' control, a source told ESPNNewYork.com. The Mets' best candidates for such a deal would be the arbitration-eligible Daniel Murphy, Dillon Gee and Bobby Parnell.
Mack – I agree with this. Murphy is under team control though 2015 which easily could be the last year he is needed. Parnell, also under team control through 2015, has to first prove he can come back 100% from his neck injury. And Gee, under team control through 2016, has always been left out of the ‘dream rotation’ everyone projects by the 2015 season.
Agents usually frown on their clients signing these kind of deals too early and, frankly, the Mets got lucky with Niese.
Michael Scannell –
I feel like I could write a new potential lineup for the Mets every week with the news that comes out. Instead of going through the exercise yet again, I wanted to approach this one in the form of a question, kind of like my recent one regarding Kemp and Braun.
Assuming that the stars align, do you think the Mets have the resources to sign Beltran and Napoli and then trade for CarGo and Kemp? I'm assuming Beltran would take a 2-3 year deal and hold the place until Nimmo is ready. Napoli would similarly be signed for a 3-4 year deal and hold 1B until Dom Smith is ready. CarGo would cost the most in young talent and I'm assuming Kemp costs average talent, the Dodgers eat some of the deal, and the Mets are able to insure the remaining years of his deal.
The lineup would have a 2-6 of Beltran, Wright, Gonzalez, Kemp, Napoli with d'Arnaud hitting 8th and catching with little to no pressure on him. The Mets would build a core middle of the lineup and then build out from that with mid-tier place holding signings like Beltran and Napoli, only leaving SS and 2B to be addressed.
Mack – Michael, there is no reason needed to add up all the money. This team is going into free agency with a 2014 salary commitment of $38mil. There is plenty of money to pull off what you want to do.
The only hold up would be what players you will have to give up for CarGo and Kemp. I just can’t see you walking away from a scenario like this with both Wheeler and Syndergaard. You’re going to lose one of your core future rotation pitchers.
Whomever else this costs you means nothing if you hold on to the lineup you broke out.
It’s a good plan, like many of your past plans, but they all are based on intelligence and common sense. Are you sure these are two areas we can attach to the Mets front office?
And lastly…
I found it interesting that ex-Met Nolan Ryan turned in his resignation with Texas, effective at the end of the month. That wasn’t even a two week notice.
It’s no big secret that he has but head with current General Manager Jon Daniels, especially involving player personnel. Texas has averaged over 90 wins per season in the last five years, but fell short of the playoffs this year at 91-72. He was named the President of Texas in 2008. He was named CEO in 2011, but thing got a little sticky earlier this year when Daniels was named the President of Baseball Operations. Ryan also was not present at the end of the year press conference held by the team.
No… don’t even think about it. There’s no chance. My guess is he will join his son with Houston.
I would definitely be a fan of adding Beltran and Napoli via free agency. Then a trade for either Cargo or Kemp, preferably Cargo since he's a lefty. Instead of committing the additional prospects and payroll to the other OF, I'd rather them sign Peralta or Drew to fix shortstop. Move Young to 2B. If Murphy isn't part of the Cargo deal, then move him to the Dodgers in trying to get Peterson.
ReplyDelete2B Young
RF Beltran
3B Wright
LF Cargo
1B Napoli
SS Peralta
c d'Arnaud
CF Lagares/DD
Obviously we are talking about the Mets adding 4 legit bats to the lineup which we don't really think they will do. But it just goes to show that we can GREATLY improve this team in 1 offseason without dishing out a 7/100 contract. Sign Beltran, Napoli & Peralta - none for more than 3 years. Trade anything including Montero, Gee, Murphy, Flores, Lagares, Den Dekker, Puello, Lawley, Dykstra, Ike, Duda or any relief pitcher they want (their closers career is over). We have a lot of ammunition, lets make a move.
I wouldn't trade any pitching prospects in AA or above, plus Matz. There's no reason with the moneyl they'll have. This NY team that wants to keep their payroll down will need to have cheap prospects to do it.
ReplyDeleteThen we will never have the big bat that this lineup really needs. The days of getting free agents in their 20s is nearly gone. If you want a young bat in his prime, your going to have to trade for him.
ReplyDeleteThis team could easily trade Montero, Flores, Lagares & Familia for CarGo and not miss a beat.
I understand the idea of keeping as much pitching as possible but a guy like Montero is a lot more valuable to another team than as our 5th starter.
This....I like this trade.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the kind words Mack. Whenever I get thinking about what the Mets could do to improve, I always try and be as logical as I can. If I'm guilty of anything, I try to find ways for them to have their cake and eat it too.
ReplyDeleteOn the problem with Wheeler/Syndergaard/Montero, just how high has Montero's stock risen in the last year? When you say it would take one of Wheeler or Syndergaard, are you saying that Colorado would demand at least one of them? Or do the Dodgers come into play as well? One of the reasons I've come around on Kemp is that I was under the impression that he would cost mid-tier talent only as LA would be looking to get out from under that contract to pay Kershaw and add more pitching. In that case, the conclusion is that Colorado would be the sticking point. If LA wants Wheeler or Syndergaard, they can pound sand.
If Montero's stock has risen enough, I would (as I've talked to death, sorry :)) attempt to substitute a Gee/Montero combination for Wheeler or Syndergaard. They're both groundball pitchers, Gee having proven himself a capable SP3 and Montero having SP1 or SP2 upside. In the grand design, I'd like to see the Mets get a third team involved, sending Murphy (who it seems will be on the market) out for a hitting prospect, and then packaging those 3 (Gee, Montero, Murphy prospect) with Ike Davis or Lucas Duda (fills Colorado's 1B problem), and a lottery ticket in a 5-for-1 deal for CarGo. The Mets would only lose Gee from the rotation, Napoli would play 1B, the team would keep Wheeler AND Syndergaard, and only 2B would have to be addressed. THEN, the Mets could flip mid-tier talent for Kemp.
Also, with Beltran signed for 2-3 years and Kemp signed through 2019, the team could make Puello available in trade to bring in Murphy's replacement. With 2-6 in the lineup as a strength, the Mets could acquire a 2B to hit 7th, thus shifting a strength (Murphy's production at 2B) to the middle of the order to where it is needed.
Charley, we always seem to lock horns over trading young pitching and you always come back to spending the Wilpon's money to cure all ills, but the Mets aren't in a position to make the added FA improvements to actually push them over the top. They still have to build a core to build around and THEN add the FAs to complete the puzzle. I'd love for the team to hold onto all pitching, it's just not a luxury they have if they want to be real contenders.
Yes, they would demand either Syndergaard or Wheeler
ReplyDeleteKevin - I like the moves. I like adding Pederson as well, if not Kemp. The Mets could be looking at a future OF that features CarGo, Pederson, and Nimmo, who when healthy was a beast this year. I still have faith that he's going to be an Alex Gordon-type.
ReplyDeleteMontero's stock has risen tremendously in the last year.... but... he's a one pitch pitcher and he still projects out as a reliever or closer...
ReplyDeleteOkay...that's disappointing but it answers the question. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteNo team sees Montero as a number 1 or 2 pitcher. Therefore you won't get Cargo for a package he's anchoring.
ReplyDeleteJP Ricchardi said mid season that Montero is a future number 4. He has zero reason to say that, it hurt Montero's value. Adding Lagaras, Flores, and Familia to the package is a JOKE!
Familia hasn't proven a thing at AAA, let alone the majors. Lagaras has no bat yet. Flores has no glove.
Mike, you're right and wrong. The Wilpons won't spend enough to fix the team and that sucks, but it's because of that, that the mets shouldn't trade their prospects. They're going to need them, especially the pitchers.