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10/2/13

Reese Kaplan - A Visit to Club PED

juiceOne thing that Marlon Byrd taught the New York Mets last year is that it’s possible for a player to rebound on the field and to rebuild his public image while doing so. They signed him as a favor to an agent and he helped propel the team forward with his bat. It became quite clear upon his departure that the team, which was never an offensive juggernaut to begin with, was going to struggle big time to score runs.

The rest of the league, of course, well knows Byrd’s story, so the days of the sub-$1 million contract for a former steroid abuser are probably gone. Still, the stigma of cheating and the mental asterisk people put next to their performances will still depress their values, though probably not quite as far as they did in the case of the current Pirates’ right fielder.

Towards that end, let’s take a look at some of the implicated players and see how they might fit into the Mets future:

Ryan Braun
With all the talk in the media about the Mets targeting Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki or Giancarlo Stanton, from a marketing perspective what better option exists than to bring the PED-tainted “Hebrew Hammer” to Queens. His numbers are outstanding in every category – average, power, speed and he plays decent defense, too. Might the Brew Crew be tempted around a package of Mets players and prospects to rid themselves of the guy who is the poster child for athletes abusing steroids? His contract is big though not nearly as onerous as some others in the league – averaging less than $15 million per year through 2020. That team’s Achilles Heel seems to be starting pitching. The Mets are deep in pitching in the minors. Would you go so far as to offer one of Montero or Syndergaard plus a handful of lower minor league pitching prospects? Neither figures to be in the Mets plans this coming year and to get a former MVP you do have to give big. Flores and Murphy are about the only bats in the upper levels not tainted by scandal. They have Jonathan Lucroy so Travis d’Arnaud would not likely be of immediate interest.


Nelson Cruz
Former Met farmhand Nelson Cruz is a free agent this year and the timing for his suspension couldn’t have come at a worse time for him. He’s a proven slugger who you can easily pencil in for 25/85 while patrolling right field for the Mets. His last two year contract with the Rangers was backloaded but averaged $8 million per season. Coming off the $10.5 million owed in 2013, I could see him landing in that $8 million range again.


Jhonny Peralta
An offensive-minded shortstop, 31 year old Peralta has proven to be a good offensive weapon since arriving in Detroit. Over approximately a single season he has averaged .275/17/80. How much is talent and how much is PEDs is anyone’s guess, but the two time All Star would be a great addition in Queens. You wouldn’t have to give up any talent to get him as he is a free agent and is coming off a reasonable $6 million salary. You’d have to figure he’d get that or less given the dark cloud over his head, so it might be a smart move for the Mets to swoop in and add this type of offense from a position that, save for the Reyes years, has always been a black hole.


Everth Cabrera
Before serving his Club Bud mandatory 50 game suspension, Everth Cabrera was well on his way to a second consecutive stolen base title. He’s a plus defender but has no power whatsoever (not even with the PEDs). This season the switch hitter kicked it up a notch and was batting .283 when he was shut down. I don’t know how image conscious the Padres are, but for the right price he’d be a definite upgrade over Ruben Tejada and is still just 26 year old. He’s arbitration eligible and the San Diego braintrust might find it distasteful to give him a raise after humiliating himself and the team.


Jesus Montero
Unless the Mets made it a part of a bigger trade involving Travis d’Arnaud, it’s unlikely to pry Jesus Montero away from Seattle, scandal notwithstanding. He has shown in the majors the same power in the minors, though the batting average dipped a bit. Apparently he’s a catcher in the Mike Piazza mold, meaning he has to play “somewhere” so it might as well be behind the plate. For a team trying to build itself on pitching, the Mets probably have no place for him unless he would consider a shift to 1B where he has played a little bit in the minors. Then again, without d’Arnaud, the Mets have robbed Peter to pay Paul as they would have to use singles hitter Juan CenteƱo to go along with an out-of-position Montero. The sum total of their offensive production is probably less than what you would get from d’Arnaud plus the three-headed-first-base-beast they currently have as an option.


Antonio Bastardo
Lefty setup specialist Antonio Bastardo has been a valuable member of the Phillies pen since getting steady work in 2011. At age 28 he’s the kind of player you could build around for the next several years and he would make the Scott Rices and Josh Edgins of this world available as trade bait. He’s not yet a free agent being arbitration eligible in 2014, so an intradivision trade would have to be worked out – something that the Phillies are probably loathe to do.


Bartolo Colon
Leading the Oakland A’s into the playoffs is the portly righthander, Bartolo Colon. He signed for a mere $3 million after his PED scandal and rewarded his team with a 2.65 ERA over 30 starts. Lest you think it was a fluke, over the past three years he’s delivered to the tune of a 3.32 ERA and a nearly 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio. For a team in need of a one year stop gap, you could do far worse than the 40 year old Colon. Oakland is not known for opening the checkbook and you can bet Bartolo is after his last brass ring.


Marlon Byrd
A reunion with the rejuvenated Marlon Byrd would probably please many Mets fans who accepted him with open arms because he produced. As a free agent coming back to New York means it would only cost money, plus the team still gets to keep the prospects garnered in that trade that sent him to Pittsburgh. He was probably the highest value player this past season based upon salary vs. performance and is due a huge bump in salary, though his age and PED past may keep the term and average number of dollars more palatable than they would be for someone who doesn’t have to prove he can do it again (and who doesn’t have to pee into a bottle on demand).


Of the players on this list, I’d be all in for a Ryan Braun trade. His salary in 2014 is just $10 million. Lump in Peralta for SS and Colon for the rotation and you have spent your $30 million very wisely with some left over to secure a second outfielder such as Marlon Byrd. Figure $10 million, $6 million, $6 million and $6 million respectively for all four of them. Throw in non-steroid abuser Kendrys Morales or Cuban prospect Jose Abreu and you have the makings of a pennant contender.  Hell, with that kind of offense added they could even live with another year of Davis or Duda.

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