From: Darnell James -
Hey Mack! Hope all is well! I have a suggestion for a War Room topic. Simply, ask everyone to play GM and give us their realistic offseason moves to produce a better team come 2014!
Awesome job w. The site. I can't get enough of it.
Darnell
Mack - Well, let me start off with mine.
My assumptions are that all these players will sign with the Mets.
First of all, I don't see any long term solution to our outfield situation through the 2013-2014 free agent process. In addition, due to the Matt Harvey situation, I'm not ready to start trading prospect pitching. Sooo...
I'm going got use this off-season as a short term building block situation for both corner outfield positions by offering a 2-year contract to both Marlon Byrd and Carlos Beltran.
I'd also offer a three year deal for Mike Napoli at first base and SS Jhonny Peralta.
I would be thrilled if I could get all of this done and I'd be well within budget.
I would like to have both Byrd and Beltran return but I think some AL team gives Beltran that third year he'll want. So give me Cruz to go with Marlon and Peralta. I would sign Arroyo and hopefully enough money left for a real reliable reliever for the pen. I hope I'm wrong but I think next year's first baseman is already on the team. Great job with the site.
ReplyDeleteI'D rather have Drew on a 2year deal.Over a 3yr to Peralta
ReplyDeleteI agree with Byrd and Beltran.
But don't think they'll touch 1st base.
I'd also sign Arroyo and Kazmir.
Arroyo to a 3 year,and Kaz to a 2 year deal.
Also bring Hawkins back for the pen.
Those are my off-season plans if I was GM
Mike Napoli? No thanks...hate the beard and with his outlandish strikout numbers, he'd probably break the all time single season record with the Mets obsurd approach to hitting. He would be a .215/.310/.425 hitter in Citi Field. Might hit 25 HR, but K 250 times and his 1B defense is nothing to write home about. Secondly, Carlos Beltran???? Really? 37 in April with shaky legs, no longer a good defender in the OF, despite a couple lucky plays in the lcs. He needs to DH. Reunions with former players are NEVER a good idea, same goes for Jose Reyes as well (even though he's still one of my favorite all time Mets). Ditto Byrd...2013 was lightning in a bottle, 2014 not so much. Can't expect a 34 yr old who had a career year to repeat, the odds are way too long. Realistically, with Alderson in charge, NOTHING gets done and your 2014 starting lineup goes like this:
ReplyDelete1. Young, LF
2. Murphy, 2B
3. Wright, 3B
4. Davis or Duda, 1B
5. Brown / den Dekker, RF
6. d'Arnaud, C
7. Lagares, CF
8. Tejeda, SS
Lot's of the same old excuses: "The market went too high for some of these players", "We weren't comfortable meeting the prices that these players ended up getting", "We want to save some money so we can add pieces at the trade deadline" (which they never do).
I believe they COULD use the Boston "model" IF they chose to. After 3 years of teases and lies I don't believe anything that comes out of Sandy Aldersons mouth. Actions speak louder than words and so far Alderson has only proven to be words and no action and even admits HE is the reason they haven't spent, not the teams financial situation.
Sorry Mack but a return of Beltran at his age and with his leg issues on top of the fact the Yanks want him and he can DH I'll pass. My question to you is how deep is the 14' draft and do you really see Sandy giving up that many draft picks to sign free agents or like I believe he'll go more toward the trade route. I think the biggest question for the FO is, after reading Maddon's article in the Daily News today, how DO the Cardinal's draft as well as they do year in and year out because we all have been lead to believe that the biggest factor in draft success is luck but NO ONE can be that lucky so they must have very good scouts and have developed the "Cardinal" way of doing business so it's time for Sandy and Co. to start plagiarizing!
ReplyDeleteI'm convinced Murphy gets traded, maybe as part of a package for Kemp or for their minor league OF Pederson. Would Murph,Flores and D'Arnaud get it done for Kemp without touching our pitching. Bring back Buck for a year till Plawecki is ready.
ReplyDeleteThere is the makings of a whirlwind crazy offseason for the Mets and when I proposed this question I had an idea of what I wanted, but with the looks of Detroit's bullpen struggling so mightily and the thinking of Parnell and whether its possible he could be traded......than the exit by the dodgers and their need for a 2nd baseman, could murphy fit there? IDK anymore ha ha.
ReplyDeletebut here's a shot.
I would trade murphy for Joc Pederson straight up.
I would do my best to work a trade around Parnell for Castellanos.
I would sign Napoli, 3 yrs/40 million
I would sign Beltran 2 yrs/ 25
I would sign Drew for 2 yrs/ 22 million
I would have to create a trade for Price if he is available. Castellanos, Flores, Montero and Nimmo would be my best offer and hopefully I could get it done.
A lot of ifs with the trades but whoa, how awesome would this be? Price, Wheeler, Niese, Syndergaard, Gee for 2014!!!
No way I make that trade for Kemp. He would need to prove himself first. He could easily become another Jason Bay for different reasons. The most I would do is Murphy and Ynoa. For Pederson we likely would have to part with pitching. Murphy and Montero. I would do that if I was GM of either team.
ReplyDeleteThe Tigers wouldn't trade Castellanos for a healthy Parnell when they needed Parnell most. That trade would require a couple of other major pieces, likely Montero. So Montero would not be available for Price.
ReplyDeleteNo way I would trade Pederson straight up for Pederson. If I were the Dodgers GM you would have me rolling on the floor.
If I'm the Rays GM please don't waste my time with trade offers for Price that don't begin with either Syndergaard or Wheeler.
Should have been No way I trade Pederson straight up for Murphy.
ReplyDeleteI'd stay away from trading my pitching prospects. Guys like Flores, Murphy, Duda, Ike, and Pawlecki are fair game. The problem is that most teams want young pitching and I'm keeping mine .
ReplyDeleteI think the Mets have little choice....they must spend some cash . I know people are afraid of going backwards and are worried about getting handcuffed by more contracts, but what was the point if waiting out the bad contracts if it wasn't to free up room for hopefully better ones? Being gun shy will only keep the team below .500.
Bryd, Beltran/Cruz, Peralta, and Lincecem would be my top targets. I don't care if I lose two draft picks as long as I have my number one. It's a deep draft and I'd have a top ten pick, so at least I know I'm getting a possible franchise player.
This isn't the year to trade pitching. That comes next year when Harvey is back, Thor and Montero are in the rotation, and Niese and Gee are expendable. I'd keep Gee and trade the lefty. By June 2015, Matz will possibly be ready to step in anyway as the lefty.
This year, they just need to spend. It's the best tool moving forward and the safest. You need to keep your system strong if you want to operate at under 100 million dollar payroll.
I would sign Tanaka. Cost a lot but we don't lose any picks. This would also allow me to package Montero in a trade for someone like Pederson from the Dodgers. Maybe Pederson for Murphy and Montero.
ReplyDeleteI would look at a trade with the Rays for Price. Wheeler, Gee, Nimmo, Fulmer would be the start of my package.
Sign Byrd.
Sign Arroyo
Ok, Pederson is a top 50 prospect.......He isn't even a top 10 outfield prospect. Has not played in AAA. He is currently 5th or 6th on the dodgers outfield depth chart.
ReplyDeleteMurphy...Adequate second baseman. Finished with 13HR/78Rbi....23 stolen bases.....188 hits........in an anemic lineup....Is there a better second baseman on the market for them at the moment? Uhmmm........Phillips? Anyone in their right mind would take murphy over phillips at this point in time.
So....uhm tell me more about how you wouldn't trade a "good" outfield prospect for a "very good" major league second baseman with minimal cost........
Hey mack, is there a reason I cant reply to posters?
ReplyDeleteAs for Castellanos, I did say a trade built around Parnell. They made a mistake by not trading for bullpen help, it bite them in the arse....HARD. Perhaps they wont make that mistake again. Some combination could happen, perhaps. They already have apower house offense, they do not need his bat to win now, so it's not like he is untried-able.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, I will not sign a player with a QO. I dont think it is worth the loss of a draft pick and the $$ that goes with that.
ReplyDeleteI would sign a RF-er for 1 or 2 years because I think Puello is the future there. Byrd/Beltran/Cruz. Take your pick.
I would sign a LF-er for 1 or 2 years. For that I want to trade Flores (or Murhpy) to the Dogers for Joc Pederson. There is no place for Pederson with Kemp, Ethier, Crawford and Puig under contract for years. I assume the 3 mentioned above can all play there.
Then I would try to solve the SS problem. Drew/Peralta. Both will be an upgrade.
The rotation has Wheeler, Niese, Gee and Mejia. I would try to sign Kazmir for 3 years.
Pen with Parnell, Black, Familia, Edgin and Torres needs Hawkins back. And perhaps another lefty like Feliciano.
Bench will have Satin(1st,2nd and 3rd),Tejada (SS and 2nd), Den Dekker (OF) and Young (OF and 2nd). Centeno will be the back up catcher but I understand if the Mets go after some kind of vet like Buck.
C D'Arnaud
1st Davis/Satin platoon
2nd Murphy (or Flores when the Dodgers want Murphy)
SS Drew/Peralta
3rd Wright
CF Lagares
RF Beltran/Byrd/Cruz
LF Beltran/Byrd/Cruz
Rotation: Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Kazmir, Mejia (DeGrom, Gorski on 40 man roster and in Las Vegas as depth. Montero is ready but no need for a 40 man roster spot yet)
Pen: Parnell, Black, Familia, Edgin, Feliciano, Torres and Hawkins
Bench: Satin/Davis, Tejada, Den Dekker, Young and Centeno ( or vet catcher)
NOBODY will be traded but Murhpy/Flores. Just money. And no loss of a draft pick and the $$ that goes with that.
Castellanos is ranked ahead of Syndergaard as a prospect. Parnell is very questionable after surgery. He may be a piece but the trade could not be built around him. It would take someone with much more value than Parnell. The Tigers lack of offense was as much a problem as there bullpen.
ReplyDeleteYou are correct, the Dodgers have no use for Pederson. They likely will trade him. What the Mets have to give up depends on what other teams are willing to offer. I don't think Murphy straight up would be their best offer.
I don't always trust the prospect rankings. Mike Olt of the Cubs ranks 57. Montero ranks 97. You will not be able to find many GMs willing to take Olt over Montero if they had the chance to grab one. The guy hit .201 in the PCL league and he is rated ahead of Montero because of what he did three years ago. They blamed his poor start in 2013 on vision problems which they claimed were corrected at mid season. Then he hits .168 for Iowa after being trade to the Cubs at the dead line.
Who do you think has more value 97 Montero or 57 Olt? Teams value Pederson because of his ability and his approach to the game. We don't want Murphy and there aren't many teams that do.
We don't want Murphy and not too many teams do? That couldn't be further from the truth.... I would think every team in the American League would have use for Murphy and I feel most GM's and baseball would say Murphy is a very nice addition to any lineup. Any person who is seventh or eighth in their position in all of baseball is a well-regarded commodity.
ReplyDeleteKazmir for three years is a pretty big gamble unless he's getting extremly low money.
ReplyDeleteI'd go for a decent name. Lincecum would be my choice. I actually like the though of Phil Houghs. He still throws hard and has good secondary stuff. He could be a good low cost, high reward guy. I'd definately try and get a guy like Dice K again as insurance. Come July, they could have a lot of extra arms to deal. Nothing wrong with adding more Dilson Herrera type prospects to the system.
I hesitate to go for a young prospect in a trade that'll take over a outfield position. We all saw DarNo's growing pains and the Mets don't need that. They need professional hitters who can put some runs on the board. I mean, are they already looking towards 2015 or do they want to finally win some games next year?
I think Lagaras/DenDekker will be handed CF as a platoon next year. That'll will help the outfield defense tremendously and allow the Mets to worry more about offense with their corner OF spots.
You know, it's still so damn early so who knows how this will shape up? I'm worried the Sandy will be too passive operating in a market heavily favoring the players. It's going to be a major issue. I like what he's done to get the Mets in position to make moves so far, but right now is much rather have Minaya wheeling and dealing.
Does anyone else think Sandy is capable of handing out contracts to players when every player seems to be severely over paid? It's just not his style. Cody Ross: 24 million. Jeff Keppinger: 12 million. Melky Cabrera: 17 million.
That's today's market for the average player. Will Sandy go even higher for the players it'll take to fix this roster?
Beltran will receive a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. There's absolutely no way I'm signng a 38 year old outfielder with declining range and giving the Cardinals my 2nd round pick. Beltran in the spacious outfield of citifield won't work. This is exactly the type of move the Cardinals want you to make. Take away a 38 year old outfielder and give them a top 50 to 60 draft pick. This type of move is exactly what's gotten the Mets into trouble. Paying a past his prime player 15+ million dollars a year and on top of it giving away draft picks. Bad contracts + giving away draft picks= A Mets mess of a farm system and a bad baseball team. The Mets can sign players that aren't offered qualifying offers and be just as sucessful. I love Mack and his website but he's just given away the 2nd and 3rd round draft picks under his scenario. In my opinion giving away draft picks for a 38 year old outfielder and a 32 year old frist basemen would be foolish.
ReplyDeleteI don't see many players that are good fits for the Mets in this years free agent class. Those that are available will be expensive and will get more years than the Mets should offer. They should focus on short term fixes like Belran and Byrd.
ReplyDeleteThe one free agent that is intriguing is Linsicum. He also will be over paid based on what he has done over the last couple of years. The Giants are going to give him a qualifying offer.
Do you roll the dice hoping that a change scenery helps him to become the ace he once was? If we did sign him to a two year contract and he did make that comeback, he would bring a very good package in July of 2015 when the Mets had Harvey back, if they chose to go that route.
Then why would you make a trade like this if your the Mets GM? It's not like the Mets are loaded with 2nd base prospects who are MLB ready.
ReplyDeleteso here's what im not doing. Im not trading Thor or Palewcki. Now there are reasons for each. For Thor, 21 year old projectable, number 1/2 RHP just arent that easy to find. For Palewcki, very simply if he has a good/descent year his value will jump exponentially and i can trade him next year. there really arent very many good catching prospects. Im keeping montero unless i need to use him to get a piece we havent really thought of yet thats high end.
ReplyDeleteSo lets think about what else is out there. first off David Price. While he is someone id love to have, im not sure the mets have both the money and the prospects. Who has both the money and the prospects to sign him? I will assume that the rays will try not to trade him to the AL East. that leaves the Nationals, the dodgers, the cardinals, the mariners, the rangers as the teams withe both the money and the prospects to get it done. The reds if they can trade phillips would also have the money and the prospects.
Ellsbury either seattle, the red sox or the orioles.
Cano is staying w the yankees
Napoli is going back to the red sox or to the rangers.
Tanaka or whatever is probably going to end up with the yankees but id like to make a big run at least at him.
I do think the mets are going to try and trade murphy. I think the royals are a place that makes sense for him. two prospects, bonafacio and projectable pitcher.
I would trade eric young to Detroit. They need a leadoff hitter and second base 3rd/4th outfielder hybrid would be a bonus for them. I dont think this gets you the OF prospect but maybe he gets you another prospect like hernan perez that you can use to get the outfield prospect.
so young and murphy are gone.
I give drew 2 years 24 mm (yeah its an overpay, but not excessive)
David Murphy 1 year 6.5 mm with a 2nd year club option at 9.5 w 1 mm buy out and hope he's the 2012 version not the 2013 version.
I sign either josh johnson or roy halliday 1 year 5.5 mm with up to 10 mm in performance bonuses, either one assuming neither is qualified.
resign byrd 1 year 3.5 mm or 2 year 5mm
depth starting pitcher 2 mm.
total: additional 30 mm minus murphy and young. and flores better learn to play 2nd base.
in general we like every team overvalue our players and prospects. is this a playoff team, no. Is it with the development of Wheeler and the june addition of Thor/montero hopefully puello a 500 team. absolutely.
Joc Pederson showed power (22HR in 440 ABs), speed (30 SBs), OPS'd almost .900, plays CF, and K'd 114 times. He's a GREAT prospect, I don't care about who ranks him where, we'd be lucky have him.
ReplyDeleteIts rumored that he is one of the major pieces, along with Julio Urias, the Rays want in a package from the Dodgers for Price. It doesn't make sense that a prospect in another organization draws so much interest when he is just labeled as a "good" outfield prospect compared to Murphy being a "very good" major league 2nd basemen. I wouldn't trade any player labeled "very good" at the major league level for any player labeled just "good" at the minor league level unless it was to dump some major salary.
ReplyDeletePederson is beyond a "very good" minor league outfielder. The Dodgers refused to take offers for him in July. When a team in contention refuses to part with a prospect for someone who can help them down the stretch it speaks a lot for that prospect.
Mack, I see that the Mets finally cut Zac Dotson I assume his off field activities contributed to his career never taking off. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteOk I'll give this a shot.
ReplyDeleteThe major places I'd look to upgrade are the two corner OF spots, SS, and I need 1 SP to fill out the rotation. I would like to upgrade 1B and the Bullpen a bit but the money (at least in this plan) just isn't there. The goal is to field a competitive team (think 85 wins) for 2014 and then make the jump to playoffs in 2015.
My guiding principle: I like prospects. You should like prospects too. If I can I will try not to trade them.
1st move: Sign Choo to play RF. I'm going to offer him 5 years 90 million. He could get more, or like bourn he could get a lot less than people predict. All in all I think it is a fair contract that will be about what he gets. If you can't sign him for around that amount try to get Ellsbury for the same price. If that also doesn't work then get Byrd or Beltran for much cheaper.
2nd move: Trade for Dexter Fowler. He is obviously not the Rockies outfielder that is most desirable, but he would be a great defensive left fielder. He is most likely available as the almost traded him for Justin Masterson last year. He is under team control for 2 more years. The Rockies need a first baseman to replace Helton and pitching. I would offer their pick of Duda/Davis and Tapia. The Rockies need ground ball pitchers (which Tapia is). And Duda and Davis could both be monsters in Coors field with their power.
3rd Move: Sign Peralta or Drew for 2 years and around 20 million.
4th Move: Sign Josh Johnson for 1 yr 5 million and some incentives.
There would obviously be some other small moves such as resigning Hawkins, picking up a backup catcher, getting some SP depth, etc.
C D’Arnaud
1st Davis or Duda/Satin platoon
2nd Murphy
SS Drew/Peralta
3rd Wright
CF Lagares
RF Choo
LF Fowler
This gives us an OF with 3 guys who could play CF. The outfield defense would be one of the best in the league. It also adds some pop and speed.
Lineup:
1. Fowler
2. Choo
3. Wright
4. The 1B platoon
5. Murphy
6. Peralta/Drew
7. Lagares
8. D’Arnaud
SP
Wheeler
Niese
Gee
Johnson
Mejia/Hefner
Thoughts?
The problem with playing GM is that there's no way to know if the trade proposals would work. Do we really know if Colorado's GM would take Ike and Tapia for Fowler? I suspect he'd hang up on Sandy.
ReplyDeleteJust because they need a 1b and ground ball pitcher, it doesn't mean he'll give up a legit OF for Ike whose been a bust and a hard throwing prospect who couldn't put up good numbers in A Ball. That proposal stinks if your Colorado's GM.
All of the trade proposals favor the mets because we all favor our players and prospects more then others would. Realistically, it's got to hurt like hell for it to be a trade that works for both sides and if it's the mets getting a legit ML OF'er, it'll probably be an extreme overpay.
Same with free agents. The reason Boston was able to get a lot of the guys they did last season was cause they paid a little extra annually to keep the contracts short. It also happened to be an off season that saw average ball players' salaries skyrocket and I think that trend will continue.
Sandy and especially the Wilpons have to be ready for that reality. If they want to keep the deals short, they should expect to pay more annually. That gives me cause for concern because Sandy doesn't strike me as a guy that will overpay with multiple contracts.
This will be a big decision for the entire FO and ownership. I don't think they'll have much choice but to go out and sign one of the bigger free agents out there. If your going to have to pay, you might as well get one of the better players. I think Elsbury or Choo will end up in a Mets uniform because if this. My guess is they'll go for Choo dye to his on base prowess, but Elsbury might be the better player.
They also need legit pop in their lineup. Nelson Cruz fits that mold and is younger then Beltran. However, how much of his power came from PEDs?
This off season will go one of two ways. They either live up to the promise and revamp the team or will remain in the background scared of all the prices. I just don't see the Mets being able to live through another horrible season and I think ownership knows it. I think they know it's time to down money to make money.
two dreams one FA one Trade (might be impossible) either one I think would put us in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteFA sign Choo, either Hart or Beltran, Napoli, Peralta
makes a dangerous 1-6 while our pitching should be adequate esp with Parnell, Black, Familia shortening games
Lineup
Choo, Murphy, Wright, Napoli, Hart/Beltran, Peralta, d'Arnoud, Lagares
Rotation
Wheeler, Niese, Gee, competition from Mejia, Degrom, Syndergaard, Montero, FA
Dream 2 impossible since Trout wont be traded but worth a shot, Angels give Trout, Hamilton, Aybar, Blanton, Weaver, Wilson, for Wheeler, Syndergaard, Mejia, Tapia, Mazzoni, Flores, Tejada, Valdespin, Robles, Puello or Nimmo, Plawecki,
if enough money sign Napoli
Lineup
Trout, Aybar, Wright, Hamilton, Napoli, Murphy, d'Arnoud, Lagares
Rotation
Weaver, Wilson, Niese, Gee