The first true concrete trade rumor has flown off the Mets Rumor Mill last night. In his written article for the New York Post, Joel Sherman suggests that the team views Davis as a "change of scenery"" guy and a potential move could involve sending him to Milwaukee in exchange for Brewers RF Norichika Aoki. However would this trade make sense on both sides?
Currently the team has a logjam at 1B with Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, and potentially even Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores. After blasting 19 HR in his rookie campaign and 32 HR in his sophomore season, Davis went ice cold with only 9 HR in 2013 and was even demoted. His swing and plate approach seemed to change weekly and he looked lost in just about every plate appearance.
However, a 30+ HR hitter doesn't just disappear. This could be just as much of a detriment to the team's hitting coach Dave Hudgens for his failure to help Davis figure it out. A move to Milwaukee's Miller Park could also help Davis as the stadium is more favorable to HR hitters according to RotoGrinders. Citi Field was also ranked as the worst place for Left Handed Hitter last season with a 0.89 Park Factor, whereas Milwaukee was tied for 7th best with a 1.03 PF.
Norichika Aoki, meanwhile, is a consistent around above average RF. His stats for his 2 seasons with Milwaukee are below:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 0.288 | 0.355 | 0.433 | 10 | 50 | 30 | 43 | 55 |
| 2013 | 0.286 | 0.356 | 0.370 | 8 | 37 | 20 | 55 | 40 |
This looks like your prototypical lead-off hitter doesn't strikeout, has a healthy on base percentage, and steals bases. Even better, with his 2014 option being picked up, Aoki is only slated to make $1.5M this season. However the Brewers aren't exactly overstaffed in the OF.
With the return of LF Ryan Braun, the Brew Crew have a starting OF of Braun, Carlos Gomez, and Aoki and a bench of Logan Schaefer and Khris Davis. However Davis had an extremely strong performance filling in for Braun during his suspension and hit .279 with 11 HR in his rookie campaign.
Although it is a small sample size, He did hit .350 in the minors in 2012 though and, according to David Grant of ReviewingtheBrew.com, could have the potential to be a 30+ HR, 100+ RBI hitter with full time work. This leaves Aoki as the 4th OF on the team.
Lastly we have to look at the Brewers 1B situation. In 2013, Juan Francisco and Yuniesky Betancourt manned the corner and both were dreadful both offensively and defensively. After coming over from the Atlanta Braves, Francisco hit .221 with 13 HR and a -8.7 UZR at 1B. Betancourt meanwhile hit .212 with 13 HR as well and a -2.7 UZR. Betancourt is now a free agent which leaves the team with only Francisco and their catchers as the only listed 1B on the roster. Steamer projections estimate that Francisco will only hit .239 with 21 HR next season while continuing his bad play at 1B.
On paper, this actually looks like a good opportunity for both clubs. Minute Maid Park would be beneficial to Ike Davis' left handed power and fills a huge hole at 1B while only adding $2M in payroll, while Aoki, could slot in as a major leadoff Left Field upgrade over Eric Young Jr. (who only had a .293 OBP in the leadoff spot) while actually saving the team some money to use on a power hitting RF.
I like the idea because I truly feel that Davis will never reach his potential as a New York Met.
ReplyDeleteHis head is no longer on straight about this team and he needs to move on.
I just know that wherever Ike goes, he'll end up hitting .275 with 40 HR and 115 RBI, but I also know that it appears unlikely that he'll ever do that for us. So I guess this is a trade you would have to make if you're Sandy. I wonder if the club would carry both EY and Den Dekker if EY isn't starting? Maybe EY's infield abilities keep him on the squad.
ReplyDeleteIm hesitant to trade Ike. If he goes to the brewers in that stadium he can easily get 25 to 30 hrs.
ReplyDeleteI think both MDD and EYJ could be on the same team. Den Dekker would be the 4th OF/late inning Defensive replacement and Young would be the backup middle infielder/7th inning we need a steal guy.
ReplyDeleteI found the Park Factor information extremely telling when it comes to how badly ALL of our lefty hitting guys performed this season
but these are the things that make him a good trade candidate
ReplyDeleteFYI...
ReplyDeleteMiller Park is in Milwaukee.
Minute Maid Park is in Houston.
Doh....sorry about that....they were both next to each other when i was reviewing the data.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the catch. Fixed.
It's addition by subtraction. Making this deal can bite you if Davis regains his form. If you could turn Davis into Aoki, SAVE MONEY in the process and remove the OBP-challenged Young from the leadoff position, then that's a win. There are people calling for non-tendering him rather than paying him as much as $5 million to be the walking man. Wouldn't obtaining a lower priced asset who solves another problem make more sense?
ReplyDeleteExactly....why just let him go for free when we can trade him away for usable piece.
ReplyDeletePeople don't think sometimes.
I'm a little surprised there seems to be so much trade interest in Ike. Are there really that many teams that are committed to making him a starting first baseman again?
ReplyDeleteSure there is a chance that he figures it out and hits 35 homers, but isn't there an even better chance that he continues to be horrible?
if theres a team out there willing to give them a starting outfielder....they should accept it quickly before they start reviewing game tape from last year.
trading him for a PTBNL is not for free. It would be tied to performance levels in 2014 at his new team. You'd get quite the rturn if Ike hit 40 HRs for someone else
ReplyDeleteyeah... who wants a left handed hitting, almost Gold Glover, who can bounce a ball on the walkway out in right field?
ReplyDeleteWe're referring to people who would just non-tender Davis to make him a free agent
ReplyDeleteI really think teams believe they have better hitting coaches then Dave Hudgens who can help Davis find his swing again....and quite frankly that's probably more likely than Davis continuing to struggle.
ReplyDeleteHe could just as easily be a .190 hitting rally killer with very little power who is prone to boneheaded defensive miscues.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you 100% The Mets should have let Hudgins go at the ASB and found someone to fix Ike.
ReplyDeleteI would want to look into and investigate Jed Lowrie from the Athletics as our solution to shortstop
ReplyDeleteI would feel much more comfortable includeing Ike in a trade that brought Jed Lowrie to the mets
Jed's salary and Oakland's middle infield prospects that are knocking on the door could make this interesting to oakland
Ike should go for sure. Get value back as you can.
ReplyDeleteFix other spots than 1B. Duda in his career is .255/.356/.456 vs. righties. if he did not have the drag of facing lefties, and he's playing his favored first base, think he could blossom (although he has given little indication of it in 2012 and 2013). Satin really hits lefties. And Duda has potential - he hit over .300 in each of July 2011, August 2011, and Sept 2011 - to do that indicates that beneath his floundering is a skill set. Put better hitters around him and lower that perssure too, and he might just surprise. If not, put Flores there if not traded, or Murphy.
There are options - ship Ike. Do not forget his deplorable starts in 2012 and 2013 - had those been dynamic starts, they are in pennant race both years. He really damaged the team. Give him a chance to do it a 3rd time? Not if i were the owner.
We can thank Chris Davis and the Orioles for the interest in Davis. Teams see him as a buy low reclamation project that may find his swing again. Ike MAY return to form but I doubt it will ever be under this microscope. Deal him. I would call the Pirates and see if they still like him.
ReplyDeleteBack in December 2011 I emailed Sandy Alderson suggesting that he bid on the newly posted Norichika Aoki as inexpensive option as a leadoff hitter. He emailed me back saying, and I quote "Herb, Thanks for your suggestion on Aoki, but I don’t think we will be involved in the posting. Sandy" I can't tell you how gratifying it would be for Sandy to trade for Aoki now. I have been hoping that Ike would get another shot at proving himself this year, but more and more, based on what I am hearing, it seems like Ike's tenure in NY is coming to an end. This looks like a win-win trade on the surface, but if it goes down I predict the Brewers will be the big winners. But that's OK because I think Aoki would still be a significant upgrade for us in the leadoff spot and in LF.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly enough, about a month before the Aoki emails I contacted Alderson suggesting he take a long look at Hisashi Iwakuma, (who had just become a free agent) stating that he could be a significant upgrade to the Mets' rotation. He emailed me back saying that he would take a look at Iwakuma, but obviously, nothing came of it. Now Iwakuma is one of the three finalists for the AL Cy Young.
Davis is a 26 year old kid who has not yet hit his stride. After his horrendous start in 2012, we all know about his second half comeback where he wound up hitting 32 bombs. Last year, in the second half he slashed .286/.449/.505/.954. The probability that he will ultimately be a .190 hitting rally killer with very little power (did you really say very little power?) who is prone to boneheaded defensive miscues (did you really say prone?) is about the same as Alderson signing both Cano and Tanaka this year.
ReplyDelete