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11/6/13

Hot Stove Report: To Accept or Risk Getting Kyle Lohse'd


This will be only the second season of the new "Qualifying Offer" free agent compensation system that was put in place with the last CBA. Last year we saw how influential this designation can be, both positively for the club and possibly extremely negatively for the player.

Last season 9 players were extended Qualifying Offers of $13.3M.

























































Michael Bournsigned 2/11/134 yr/$48MAAV $12M
Josh Hamiltonsigned 12/13/125 yr/$125MAAV $25M
Hiroki Kurodasigned 11/20/121 yr/$15MAAV $15M
Adam LaRochesigned 1/8/132 yr/$24MAAV $12M
Kyle Lohsesigned 3/25/133 yr/$33MAAV $11M
David Ortizsigned 11/2/122 yr/$26MAAV $13M
Rafael Sorianosigned 1/15/132 yr/$28MAAV $14M
Nick Swishersigned 12/23/124 yr/$56MAAV $14M
BJ Uptonsigned 11/28/125 yr/$75MAAV $15M

Outside of Josh Hamilton, who received a ridiculous contract from the desperate Angels, all of these players received minimal raises to the arbitration offers or even lost money in Bourn, LaRoche, and Lohse's case. In exchange for letting their players walk the teams received the following draft picks. We can see that the longer a QO free agent waits to get the right deal, the less he ends up earning. Kyle Lohse was effected negatively the most.  Not only did he receive less than his QO of $13.3M, but he made even less than his prior season salary of $11.8M.

With a year's worth of data, free agents are now going to have to decide whether or not it truly is wise financially to decline the QO like all 9 guys did last year. This year's list includes the following:




























Ubaldo JimenezCarlos BeltranJacoby Ellsbury
Hiroki KurodaRobinson CanoCurtis Granderson
Brian McCannShin-Soo ChooErvin Santana
Kendrys MoralesNelson CruzStephen Drew
Mike Napoli

Granderson immediately sticks out as someone who could get "Kyle Lohse'd." By that I mean end up waiting for Ellsbury and Choo to determine what the market is and by the time they both sign it is already January and Granderson's options become limited. It happened to Michael Bourn as well last season. He waiting to see what BJ Upton and other OF'ers were going to get then next thing you know his only options were the Mets and the Indians, which neither team was flush with cash.

Of course this designation completely benefits the team themselves. First off, the teams that these players left, received quality draft picks which they used on some big name prospects listed below. Secondly even though they had to forfeit a pick, it gave smaller market teams, like the Indians, an opportunity to snag a big name without breaking the bank.













































CardinalsRob KaminskyGCL (R)3.68 ERA11.5 K/9
RaysRyne StanekDNP
RangersTravis DemeritteGCL (R).285 AVG26 DP turned
BravesJason HurshSAL (A)0.67 ERA6.7 H/9
YankeesAaron JudgeDNP
YankeesIan ClarkinGCL (R)10.80 ERA7.2 K/9

All of the guys listed above, outside of Clarkin, were stars at their schools and have the potential to be future MLB players.

Qualifying Offer Free Agents will have till November 11th at 5pm to decide whether they are better served banking the $14.1M salary next season or go for the big pay day and risk getting Lohse'd

5 comments:

  1. I can't believe the Mets didn't offer a QO to Greg Burke.

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  2. No one on our team is currently worth a QO.

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  3. I was hoping so lol.

    In all seriousness though I feel like Stephen Drew could be one of those guys who gets hurt by the Qualifying Offer. Then the Mets can swoop in and sign him for less than $11M per year

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  4. Drew, Cruz, Granderson, and even Beltran are players who just might accept the QO's. MLB Trade Rumors pegged each of them at:

    Drew - 4/$44 million
    Cruz - 3/$39 million
    Granderson - 3/$45 million
    Beltran - 2/$30 million

    Each of those (if realized, and that is worth repeating - IF REALIZED) would be preferable to the player than the $14.1 million QO, despite the fact that Drew and Cruz would be getting a lower average annual value. Assuming, however, that the player of our choice rejects the offer, there is an inherent risk to waiting for his price to fall as the spectre of Lohse appears before him. If he happens to sign elsewhere, we are forked.

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