One of the Mets prime targets, SS Jhonny Peralta, came off the market this weekend signing a 4 yr/$53M contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. The signing ends up being a perfect fit for the Cards who are widely regarded as one of the top organizations in all of baseball. With Peralta now off the market the Mets will have to scramble to figure out who's left and who will fit the team's future mold.
Stephen Drew
.253/.333/.443, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 6 SB, UZR +5.3
Drew is the big name left on the free agent market but he has the Qualifying Offer tag on him. The lack of a QO tag allowed Peralta's market to skyrocket while Drew has basically been waiting on the bench for him to sign. Now teams will be lining up to meet with Drew's representatives in hopes of signing the only guy worthy of a starting role. The remaining options after him are quite bleak.
Clint Barmes
.211/.274/.334, 5 HR, 23 RBI, 0 SB, UZR +8.9
I'm not kidding when I say the market is bleak after Drew. Barmes classifies as one of the best left after Drew signs in terms of WAR thanks to his defensive prowess. Barmes best season was back in 2010 when he hit a measly .244 with 12 HR as the starter for the Houston Astros.
(That's it folks....There are other guys like Rafael Furcal, Munenori Kawasaki, Willie Bloomquist, John McDonald, Alex Gonzalez, Cesar Izturis, and Luis Cruz, however none of them are remotely qualified to be more than a bench piece.
(Knowing how bad the market is after Drew, a playoff team in need of a SS will meet his demands leaving the Mets to either stick with Ruben Tejada another year or find someone like Astrubal Cabrera on the trade market.)
A Baltimore trade for J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis might work if you can swing Murphy and Davis over to them in the same deal. The $10 million or so in salary you give up takes the $22 million sting out of what you receive for a net payroll increase of $12 million. Then you have the left handed power bat in RF to go along with the right handed power bat in LF. Use some combination of Duda/Flores/Tejada/E. Young on the right side of the infield.
ReplyDeleteI do not think the O's are interested in trading Hardy AND Markakis. Gotta believe its either one or the other.
ReplyDeletePunt on the SS dilemma this offseason. Go with Tejada, or bring in a low cost(relative in this market I know)one year option like Furcal (maybe can be a mentor to Ruben--MAYBE). Then if Tejada is toast, with the $$$ you've saved this season go after a FA SS next season. The FA class in 2015 is bleak with the exception of SS, which has some talented pieces:
ReplyDelete(from MLBTradeRumors)
Shortstops
Mike Aviles (34) - club option
*Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
*Yunel Escobar (32) - $5MM club option
*J.J. Hardy (32)
Derek Jeter (41)
*Jed Lowrie (31)
Hiroyuki Nakajima (32) - $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Nick Punto (37) - club/vesting option
*Hanley Ramirez (31)
Jimmy Rollins (36) - vesting/club/player option
Brendan Ryan (33)
I * the ones who would be worth pursuing. It's a better option than forcing a SS trade this offseason or choosing from one of Barmes, Izturis, or whichever Alex Gonzalez this is.
I agree. Especially since a 3 year contract next year will be a perfect bridge to Gavin Cecchini or Amed Rosario if they end up panning out.
ReplyDeleteBob said...
ReplyDeleteThis is my biggest problem with the Young trade...
Alderson and company admitted themselves that this team was hard to watch during the past few years.
He admitted that the line-up needed to be upgraded (not slightly, but by alot)
Alderson targeted SS and 2OF positions as the positions that he would upgrade the line-up
Atleast 2 of those 3 positions NEEDED to be upgraded considerably
Young IS NOT an upgrade. Even at his best year he only equaled Byrds production last year (the fact it probably was a fluke year for Byrd does not matter here)
This leaves ONLY 1OF position and SS left to upgrade the offense.
Alderson has now backed himself into a corner with the Young signing that SS HAS to be upgraded and an OF has to be a BIG upgrade.
Going into the year with Tejada at short and the rest of the roster pretty much the same will produce pretty much the same season as last year
and the year before that
and the year before that
I dont want to watch pretty much the same season again
@Bob
ReplyDeleteI agree SS has to be upgraded however an improvement upon last year's production from that spot can be had by leaving Tejada there.
Tejada had .228 BABIP last season which killed his batting line.
STEAMER projections (which take into account his BABIP normalizing back to his career rate of .291) have him hitting .259 next season which is a SIGNIFICANT improvement from the combined production he and Quintanilla had in 2013.
How many times do we go through this in the last few years....
ReplyDeleteso-and-so (davis, duda, tejada, brown, nieuwenhuis, baxter, valdespin, cowgill, ankiel, thole, bay, andres torres, evans, emaus, F martinez) were all going to do better than they did the year before.
you talk about his career rate, but his major league career is what.... 2-3 yrs??? (maybe that one good year was just that... his one good year?)
a .259 projection for next year would be an upgrade in batting avg...
but what is the projection for runs and rbi? productive outs?
tejada returning to his "career norm" or STEAMER projection
will NOT be enough of an upgrade
especially when 1 of the OF spots have been filled with a limited to non-existant "upgrade"
tejada meeting his STEAMER projection or "career avg" will result in what??
one more win? 5 more wins?
do you really think tejada will make any measurable improvement ??
In regards to Tejada:
ReplyDelete18-24
16-21
19-23
Those were his SB/A 2007-2009 in the minors. His OBP those years-.351,.466., and .434.
For some reason after 2009 they stopped running him. That has continued in MLB.
If you have to live with his gap power bat (26 doubles in '12) why not let him run more and give the team some speed in the 7-8 spot. There's no reason he couldn't get at least 15-20 SB in 2014. Terry likes to run, so it's surprising they haven't utilized that side of his game.
I'm talking situation steals here not setting him loose on the basepaths. This team is going to have to manufacture runs so I can't see what they have to lose really. Add some SB to his game and you could live with Tejada's 2011-12 numbers at SS.
@Bob
ReplyDeleteI do think he will have some measurable improvement as he's had back to back seasons of .280 avg seasons and 1 BABIP fueled terrible season.
The return to STEAMER projections would results in 3 more wins over last year's group.
@D Whit
Tejada is not the fleetest of foot. In terms of straight line speed he about equal to Daniel Murphy. Only difference is Tejada is "quick" on his feet which allows him to play an above average defensive SS.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteChris-Yes, and Murphy stole 23 bags last year. Considering your comparison of the two up above you don't think Tejada could swipe 12-15 at least? Pick and choose high % spots to run him, vs. weak armed catchers, vs pitchers with poor pick-off moves, certain game situations. It's not like he's Wilmer Flores slow. But, then again, few are.
ReplyDeleteD Whit
ReplyDeleteSee. That is my point.
3 more wins bring us up to 77?
Tejada would be fine to have on the team
BUT
Where is the upgrade coming??
What will make fans say
"There's a 87-90 win team?"
Alderson filled one of the OF positions
If tejada returns to start at ss...
That leaves 1 OF position to improve
@Bob.
ReplyDeleteWell you can't expect to add more than 3 wins at each position. This team's "upgrades" that will move them into playoff contention are A) On the DL (Matt Harvey) and B) in AAA (Noah Syndergaard)
The teams is going to get at least 3 additional wins from a full season of Zack Wheeler, 2-3 from a full season of d'Arnaud, 2-3 from a healthy David Wright, and 2-3 if Lagares performance in winter ball can translate into the MLB.
@D Whit
While I do think Tejada can swipe 15-20 bags the only thing is, He's gotta get on base. Plus usually he's batting in front of the pitcher so his opportunities to steal are generally limited.
Chris-Why not bat TDA 8th to start the season and if starts hitting move him up in the order. I'd bat Tejada 7th for the reason you mention, maybe bat Lagares 8th and put some speed at the bottom of the order. They're going to need to get creative with their line-up. They also need to maximize the most they can out of Tejada offensively, and this is a way to do that.
ReplyDeleteBob- 87-90 wins? Unless they do something bold and aggressive, I believe it's 70-72 wins tops for this bunch.
Are you serious??
ReplyDeleteIf I give tejada as 3 more wins
And give you all of the other additional games 12
That brings the mets up to 89 wins?!
That would be wonderful!
BUT
You are telling me basically the same team plus Young is an 89 win team??
Not a chance
D Whit
ReplyDelete70-72 wins tops????
How many Met fans are going to be satisfied with 70-72 wins next year?
How many will still be Met fans if there is another year of 70-72 wins?
How many young potential fans will even look in the Mets direction when there is the oh-so-attractive sister (Yankees) so close and easy to root for?
Already, Players will look past the Mets, even if they wave similar amounts of money in the payers direction
Do you realize for the past 3 years the only thing Met fans have had to root for in August and September is a protected draft pick??
Alderson and the Wilpons promised if the fans were patient... 2014 would be the pay back.
Fans do not want to hear excuses at this point (ex- Harvey)
or fairy-tales of frogs that will miraculously become baseball princes (Young)
@Bob
ReplyDeleteThe same team playing all playing at there forecasted potentials may not make us playoff worthy.
But gosh darn its an above .500 team.
Remember the Mets were roughly .500 for the season from mid June through the remainder of the year.
Chris....
ReplyDeleteso IF everyone plays up to potential....
Fans are supposed to be happy with a .500 team?
after the torture of the past through years...
following through on the Wilpons and Aldersons promise is an 81 win team???
THAT is NOT what was promised!
Do you realize $50 million came off of the payroll this year. Add to that the $25 million additional TV revenue.
This is not a surprise to the Mets
They supposedly planned for this over the past few years. The same years they promised they would have all of this money to reinvest in the team.
That is a total of $75 million dollars!!!
and they are going to reinvest
$25 million?? oops or is it $35 million??
Wow
Why do I feel lied to?
Why wont I accept things staying the same?
Whether it was by trade, free agent, drafting, or international signings...
The Mets were supposedly planning for THIS YEAR
Promised THIS YEAR
am I wrong for holding them to their promise?
for expecting their actions to match their words?
Fans continued to trust, hope, buy, watch, read, care about all things mets
We held up our end.
Is it wrong for us to expect the MEts to hold up their end?
Bob-I agree. In all honesty I question rather they can. Over the past couple of weeks I did some research and read past articles, as well as saw what's been said and by who so far this offseason regarding FA and budget.
ReplyDeleteThe only conclusion I can come up with is that the Wilpon's are still paying down debt, creditors don't just go away, because things have snowballed over the past four years.
Snowballed to the point that the debt problem and paying it back has become a vicious cycle. Losing teams, declining attendance, fan apathy, decreased merch sales, et al have put the ownership in a hell of a bind.
This spike in player $$ this offseason caught them by surprise because I believe they have no way to keep up.
That's why I think it's a solid $90 mil payroll with no wiggle room. Now they are struggling to adjust to the new market because they're outpriced by everyone. The question that has to be asked sooner than later is, if this is the state now, what about when you have to start paying the arbitration money to the Harvey's, Wheeler's and TDA's?
If attendance continues to drop, and fan apathy increases where does that revenue to field a competitive team come from? Call me a doomsayer, but at this juncture it looks shaky at best. I don't think it's as much of an Alderson mandate to be at $90 million, I think it's a stark reality of the team's finances.
We're what 3-4 years into the mess, and it seems like the tunnel many of us thought we'd emerge from this winter just keeps getting longer instead. What happens at the Winter Meetings will be interesting and I believe will tell the tale.
If this tale ends badly
ReplyDeleteIt is definitely time foe the Wilpons to
Move on and give the mets and their fans a chance
Late to the party, as usual.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to lose a pick for Drew. The best FA candidate for SS is a 2B - Omar Infante. Although primarily a 2B, he has played 225 MLB games at SS. He's a much better than average bat for a SS, and a good glove as well.
Herb-Infante is an excellent choice considering the circumstances. He's a solid player (2.5 WAR in 2013) plus signing him gives us some flexibility if we want to take a dip into the 2015 FA pool. He could also play some OF if needed. He made $4 mill last season so sign him to a deal of around 12.5 mil. for 2yrs. (option for 3rd). They could do a lot worse like overpay drastically on Drew (losing a draft pick to boot).
ReplyDelete