Mack Ade – Morning Report – 11-12-13 – TrackMan, TV $$, Dillon Gee, Stephen Drew, Q and A

Baseball America -

Amateur baseball and the showcase circuit might never be the same.

Technological advances have already changed the way players are evaluated at the professional level, as systems like Pitch F/X and TrackMan provide in-depth quantitative data about the flight of baseballs out of pitchers’ hands and off the bats of hitters.

Now TrackMan is bringing its innovative technology to the amateur ranks, and the implications for the future of player evaluation are significant.

The largest showcase company, Perfect Game, and TrackMan have announced a strategic partnership that will bring TrackMan’s cutting-edge technology to Perfect Game’s showcase events, which more than 40,000 different amateur players have attended this year alone. In time, as more stakeholders become familiar with TrackMan’s technological capabilities, it could dramatically alter the way evaluators cover premium showcase events. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/perfect-game-and-trackman-partner-to-bring-cutting-edge-technology-to-showcases/

Mack – This is big news for those of us that track these kids and try to figure out which one is better than the other guy. We all know that the premium summer games are with PG… now we will have the cutting edge stats to go along with them. You’ll have stats like pitch velocity, pitch spin rate and exit velocity of batted balls.It was tested at the World Wood Bat Championship, in Jupiter, Florida, earlier this month.

Very exciting.

 

Nick Cafardo -

With the distribution of television money as a result of the new collective bargaining agreement going up from $25.53 million to $51.67 million per team, you can bet your assets that teams will extend themselves a bit more to achieve personnel goals. Don’t believe for a minute that the Tigers won’t re-sign Max Scherzer, who can be a free agent after next season, or that they’re not going to enhance the team, as we’ve read in certain circles. Why would you have Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Torii Hunter, Justin Verlander, Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez on a team that isn’t going for it? Or why would a team with an elderly owner such as Mike Ilitch suddenly decide, when all he wants is a championship, to pull back the reins? Don’t buy it.

Mack – No one really knows at this point what the Mets’ 2014 salary budget is past 2014. When Sandy Alderson, Jeff Wilpon, or beat reporters tell you that the Mets are going to spend in the $90-95mil max range, that doesn’t mean they can’t back end a contract beginning in 2015 for much, much more. The money is there to build yourself a competitive team. Only the desire is questionable.

 

Adam Rubin –

Following a 2012 season shortened by surgery to repair a damaged artery in his pitching shoulder, Dillon Gee rebounded to become one of the league’s most successful pitchers. Gee set career highs this past season in games started (32), innings (199), quality starts (16) and strikeouts (142), while also posting his best career ERA for a full season (3.62). Gee exhibited the qualities of a starting pitcher teams covet: dominance, effectiveness and reliability. Yet while Gee’s 2013 season was successful, consistency over a long period remains the key to an elite salary. http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/79336/salary-projection-dillon-gee?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Mack – Rubin makes a good argument for around a $4mil salary for Gee, Is he worth a mil less than the Mets paid Mike Pelfrey? IMO, he is.

 

David Lennon –

There's a good chance the Mets won't like what they hear. With nearly $40 million coming off the books for 2014, they have plenty of payroll flexibility. But Alderson also has a lengthy shopping list that could go in a number of directions. Conservative estimates have Drew perhaps landing a three-year deal in the $36-million range, but Boras scoffed at those numbers recently. And if that's low, the Mets will seek other options, such as Jhonny Peralta, or maybe make a trade. Ruben Tejada has fallen so far so fast that giving him another shot at shortstop seems virtually out of the question. But if the Mets do choose to spend money on Peralta -- sorry, we're already skeptical about Drew -- could Tejada bolster their up-the-middle defense with a move back to second base?

Mack – The last thing I expected to ever read again was the mention of Tejada in a Mets starting lineup. And, I definitely didn’t see second base coming. Lennon seems to write a destructive column every day lately. The future of the Mets defensive infield is up for grabs right now. The combo of Duda, Flores (or Murphy), and Peralta could lead the league in muffs.

 

Jared Diamond –

Then there is the trade route. The Mets' system is loaded with pitchers who could be dealt for major-league position players. The Blue Jays and Angels have indicated that they would trade hitters for starting pitching. Mets pitching prospects Rafael Montero and Jacob deGrom could both be attractive pieces in a trade for a solid, though not spectacular, contributor.

Mack – This is exactly what we have been hoping would eventually develop. You can’t have more than five starting pitchers and the Mets may wind up to eight in 2015. Two or three of these guys are going to have to be moved to help plug the holes in the daily lineup.

 

Joe Mauer –

Joe Mauer is moving to first base in 2014. Mauer suffered a nasty concussion in August 2013 and the Twins want to lessen the odds of him getting another. Mauer's real-life value will take a hit with this move -- his bat doesn't look nearly as great at first base -- but it's a decision that makes loads of sense nonetheless. Mauer is locked in with the Twins through 2018. They need to protect him. He will retain catcher eligibility in most fantasy formats for the 2014 season.  http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/3601/joe-mauer?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Mack – This immediate opens up a catcher position in Minnesota that could be filled with a trade for, let’s say,  Travis d’Arnaud  and P Jacob deGrom for someone like OF Oswaldo Arcia. Anthony Recker and Juan Centeno can hold the fort down at home (or resign John Buck) until Kevin Plawecki is ready. I’m just saying…

 

Derek McKnight  -

As you know I am frequent reader of your site and occasional poster. I always appreciate your responses to my emails but I have a couple of questions about why the Mets need to spend big this offseason.

 Like you, I have moved on to 2015 as a year that the Mets will/should  contend for the East title and have a chance of a long playoff run. The current crop of free agents this year that fit the Mets best in my opinion are too old, and too expensive playing in the non-steriod PED  era. If Puello is a major league outfielder and in comments made by  you and other respected posters along with his AA numbers, have me convinced that he is worth a shot and with Lagares playing so well.

Mack - Derek, so far, you and I are on the same page. I’m sure a lot of my readers will consider this a downer, but the Mets are never going to become a ‘real’ contender until, one, Matt Harvey returns to the SP1 slot and is dominant, two, Noah Syndergaard gets the second half of 2013 under his belt, and three, the new network television money kicks in so they can finish off what they will start signing/trading for this year. I want this team to stay young and target from within and through prospects. Lagares and Puello look like they will be capable of being 2/3^rd of the outfield. My hopes are the Mets target this year’s monies for a 3-4 year deal for Jhonny Peralta, a trade for someone like Michael Cuddyer (with an agreement for a second year extension), and a back-end SP5 for one year.

 There is only one outfield slot to fill. I also agree with you that the Mets are going to give Davis another shot at 1B. The talent is there to not just give away. So that leaves SS (Tejada is still young to give up completely) and LF to upgrade from the outside.

 The Mets farm is rich in pitching as you have stated many times and  the way to win starts on the mound. Why the rush to fill those two  spots this offseason? What is wrong with waiting for the many pitchers who will reach AAA and AA this year to produce to fill those last two  spots? A May or early June trade, when other teams who are trying to  compete in 2014 have injuries or poor performing players, the Mets can  get a young controllable player for minor leaguers whose trade value  is not as high. Degrom, Mazzoni, Gorski, Fulmer, Cessa, Walters for example. I am not saying that any of those players can get you an Alex Gordon, but if they are ready to be promoted than a Gee might. With D’Arnaud in his first full season and Puello coming up, there will be a learning curve this season that will be good to get out of the way for 2015. It allows for a full season of Mejia and seasoning of Wheeler and finally Thor and chance to pitch in a couple of games in September.

Mack - Everything you are saying so far makes sense but it does nothing to put fans back in the seats. There simply is too much talk going on by Mets brass and their beat reporters for them to sit back and only sign one or two players. Sometimes I just wish Alderson would wave a different wand. Go give Choo 6-yrs, $90mil and Peralta 3-yrs. $36mil. With Wright and d’Arnaud, you now have 50% of your ‘future’ team’. Lagares could settle in at center and Murphy, Tejada, and Flores can fight it out for second. Past that, Puello joins the outfield at the all-star break and you go from there.

(Speaking of Thor, if there is a chance of him throwing the majors in Sept and the Mets interested in trying for a playoff spot, wouldn't it be better for him to stay behind in PSL and start  his season in May so his innings limit wont be exhausted in August?)

Mack - There would be too much pressure on him going from a minor league pitcher right into the playoffs. The only thing holding him back now is this stupid obsession the Mets have with the ‘super 2’ status. He’s ready.

 Isn't the dream rotation: Harvey, Wheeler, Thor, Neise and Montero, with a Matz, Fulmer, Mateo, deGrom  in AAA awaiting injury call up?

Mack - And, you forgot Gee and Mejia. We can solve this by trading our secondary pitching prospects over the next two years, if our primary rotation stayed healthy, but the fans will burn the stadium down if this team wins less than 80 games again.

I guess my point that I am rambling about is if this is your core guys, then everyone else is trade fodder. Every pitcher not on the list doesn’t have a lot of trade value due to progress up the minor leaguesystem or injury but another half season of proving success in another upper level would increase their value. Why go big this offseason for veterans getting big money at the end of their career?. We have seen  all over baseball that the majority do not have a good return when they reach mid 30's. (Beltran not being a rule). Someone like Braun who be nice in LF is not playing for two months. That's two months of waiting to see what the Dodgers are going to do with their outfield as so with the Angels and Royals while the minor leaguers try to increase their value.

Mack - Yes everyone else is ‘trade fodder’, but teams don’t classify minor leaguers as the primary reason to make a trade. They want to see what a pitcher can do in the majors first. The Mets would have a much greater chance of trading for the right players if they traded guys like Niese or Gee when Montero and Syndergaard are ready to come up.

 I understand a lot of money has come off the books and fans want to  see upgrades as do I. But if a Flores, Pill, Gee gets me a Braun or a Wil Myers type prospect, to a desperate need to win or reduce payroll it was worth the wait. The Mets have salary flexability, let’s use it.  The one thing I admired about the Braves was they recognized their core prospects and then used the others to fill in holes. It would be nice to see the Mets start doing the same.

Mack - The Braves are very well known for their great development. The difference is the Mets have only developed pitching.

 Always enjoy your insight and look forward to your hot stove season.  Can't wait to watch games where Grant Holmes pitches this year, nice to see a future Met before he gets drafted.

              Mack -   I would pick Holmes in a heartbeat.