Mack Ade – Morning Report – 11-5-13 – 2014, David Lennon, Bill Geivett, Jhonny Peralta, Amed Rosario

I sense a different policy coming out of Sandy Alderson's office this year. He would have never talked about giving up a draft pick in the past. I think they know exactly what direction they are going... sign one 'qualified offer' player, lose their 2nd round pick, and then sign additional players below that level.

The Mets must replace the loss of Marlon Byrd with a big name and then, not stop there. That simply would represent a breakeven position. No, there are at least two 'bats' being added to this team, either on the corner outfield positions, first base, or shortstop.

I just feel it.

 

Rocco asked –

                Mack, love the site. First time email.

A lot of you think that the Mets might spend enough money to fill up all ‘the holes’. Do you agree with them?

                Mack – Welcome Rocco. I’m not sure anyone thinks the Mets will spend what they should. What there has been is a lot of pipe dreaming about what each poster wishes the Mets would do.

I try and look realistically at this team while, at the same time, try and predict what Sandy Alderson will do rather than what I would do. Don’t believe what you read sometimes. The Mets are going to spend around $45mil tops for new talent. My guess is it will even be more in the $40 range.

As a past businessman, I fully understand the desire the Mets front office has to heal financially and because of the lack of long term salary commitments, they have a chance to move closer to a break even profit and loss statement this year.

I think the Mets will make pre-season 2014 decisions based on the mid-season projected 25-man roster. Three new players (SP Noah Syndergaard, P Rafael Montero, RF Cesar Puello) will join the team and all will be team controlled for years to come. Knowing this, the Mets are free to spend in the $14-19mil/yr. range for at least two prime ‘bats’, either through a trade or free agency.

I believe that Alderson is committed to playing Juan Lagares in centerfield, with Matt den Dekker as his backup. Den Dekker also gives the Mets an additional quality late inning defensive substitution at either of the corner positions. We’ve learned the hard way that close games have been lost in the past due to shoddy outfield defense. Lagares, den Dekker, and Eric Young Jr. have turned that image around in one season.

I think a new outfielder will fill one of the corner positions and Young will play in the other until Puello is promoted. It will be Young’s job to lose and he will lead off until or if that happens.

The other looks to be a replacement at shortstop. My guess is this will be a free agency pick.

The only other monies I see being spend would be for a ‘temporary’ starter and maybe one power relief arm. In a perfect sense, the Mets could have seven starters (Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Jenrry Mejia, and new guy) and we didn’t even menton Jerremy Hefner.

Trade wise, Expect one of our second basemen to depart (Daniel Murphy or Wilmer Flores) as well as one of the first basenen (Ike Davis or Lucas Dudu)., I expect a starter to depart as well

This is my spin… today .

 

Qualified offers -

1. Carlos Beltran: Beltran hit 24 Home Runs to compliment a .296/.339 line with the national league champion Cardinals. He is a strong candidate to accept his offer since he is unlikely to beat this deal elsewhere and he can remain with St. Louis to try to chase a World Series ring.

2. Robinson Cano: As a 31-year-old and the best Free Agent on the market, Robinson Cano is guaranteed to turn down his qualifying offer. The Yankees will either resign him or they will gain a compensation pick at the end of the first round.

3. Shin-Soo Choo: At 31-years old and as a 20 home run bat with a .423 OBP, Choo is guaranteed to turn down his offer. He may be the best all around long-term outfielder with age, durability and talent all taken into account.

4. Nelson Cruz: Mired in injuries and a steroid suspension, Cruz has played in more than 128 games in a season just once in his career. He may be a candidate to accept his offer and hit Free Agency as a 34-year-old at the end of 2014 after a full season to regain his value.

5. Stephen Drew: Drew has had an OBP over .326 and hit more than 15 HR just once in his career. At 30-years-old, he’s not a slam dunk to accept or reject his offer, but he would undoubtedly be one of the worst values in exchange for losing its first round pick to a new team should he turn down his offer and sign elsewhere.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury: A 30-year-old Scott Boras client, coming off a World Championship and with a natural replacement waiting for the Red Sox, Ellsbury is guaranteed to turn his offer down, gain the Sox a pick and get himself paid.

7. Curtis Granderson: One of three Yankees, Granderson was hit by two different pitches and missed most of the season. There’s an outside chance he accepts his offer, but will still likely turn it down since he can do a lot better than $14.1 million on the open market, even with a draft pick riding on it.

8. Ubaldo Jimenez: Jimenez will turn 30-years-old in January and is coming off a season with a 3.30 ERA, 9.6K/9 and 182.2 innings, his most since 2010. Expect Jimenez to easily turn down his offer and seek a long-term deal in Free Agency.

9. Hiroki Kuroda: Kuroda is only seeking one year deals at this stage if he decides to stay in the states. Still, by accepting the offer he would be taking almost a one million dollar pay cut despite being the Yankees’ ace. He will turn this down, but may not go anywhere in the US except the Bronx.

10. Brian McCann: McCann will be 30-years-old before Opening Day but as the top catcher in Free Agency, he will get a long-term deal somewhere for a lot more than his qualifying offer. No chance he accepts and he’s unlikely to return to Atlanta.

11. Kendrys Morales: The 30-year-old already took his one year deal to boost value in 2013 and he responded with 23 home runs, 80 RBI and a .277/.336 line. Morales will turn down his offer and sign a multi-year deal elsewhere.

12. Mike Napoli: The final of the three Red Sox and like Ellsbury, Napoli is going to turn down his qualifying offer. Unlike Ellsbury, it’s very likely Napoli signs a multi-year deal to return to Boston.

13. Ervin Santana: For a starter turning 31-years-old Santana is very likely to cash in on a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 211 innings. There is no chance this offer is accepted and Santana will sign a multi-year deal.

http://baseballnewssource.com/trade-rumors/cano-ellsbury-lead-list-of-players-with-qualifying-offers/27133/

 

David Lennon –

SHIN-SOO CHOO, CF With a .423 on-base percentage and 107 runs, Choo is a favorite of the analytic crowd. Also showed decent pop with 21 homers, including 11 away from the Reds' home launching pad. Even more valuable to a city with a large Korean fan base that could boost ticket sales. (Hint, hint). - Prediction: Mets, six years, $105 million

JHONNY PERALTA, SS Another member of the Biogenesis bunch; that should knock a few bucks off Peralta's market price. But he combines a solid glove with this season's .815 OPS, so that should convince teams to gamble, especially ones looking to fill a glaring need on the cheap. Prediction: Mets, two years, $19 million

Mack – Wouldn’t this be nice. 25% of your everyday players are locked up with genuine stars of the game. You could play EJY until Cesar Puello was ready to give him a fight for left field and all you have to do in this off-season is decide who is going to be your SP5 until Noah Syndergaard grows up.

Young, Murphy, Wright, Davis, Choo, d-Arnaud, Peralta, Lagares

 

Bill Geivett - of Colorado Rockies –

“Our needs are starting pitching, late inning relief (maybe 2 guys), and a corner bat. We'd listen on trading Tulo and Cargo but the likely scenario is that they're with us"

Mack – Well, Sandy Alderson can’t help here with a corner outfielder and, frankly, the Mets have their own relief problems.

I still think the best way to approach Colorado is to avoid any discussion on either Tulowitzki, or Gonzalez. You have two outfielders (Michael Cuddyer, Dexter Fowler) entering the last year of their contract.

The simple deal for one of them would to offer two ‘corner’ dudes… Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy.

At any point you could replace one of these names with any pitcher other than Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Dillon Gee, Jon Niese, or Noah Syndergaard.

You would also have to re-negotiate a couple more years here to make it worthwhile for the Mets. A 3-4 year deal with the 27-year old Fowler could move Juan Lagares to right and create quite the defensive outfield.

 

MetsBlog –

                The Detroit Tigers will not make a qualifying offer to SS Jhonny Peralta

                Mack – It makes sense. Detroit has budding star Jose Iglesias in the wings and Peralta’s 50-game suspension doesn’t play will in mid-America towns like Detoit.

                This is one less roadblock for the Mets to get this one done and I frankly thin this could be the first announcent of their FA season. I’m thinking a little bump over the qualifying offer figures and give im $15mil a year for two years with a team option in 2016.

                2013: .303/.358 OBP/.815 OPS, 11 home runs and 55 RBI in 448 plate appearances.

 

Fangraphs –

In sum, Amed Rosario is a player who already shows a diverse skillset. He has bat speed to burn, and his size and strength give him the potential to provide above-average power for a middle infielder. He’s also fairly polished for a 17-year-old, as evidenced by his ability to demonstrate his tools against much older competition in 2013. On the flip side, there’s a lot for him to work on, but it’s all just a matter of slowing the game down, refining, and gaining consistency rather than innate athletic deficiencies, and he has a lot of time to smooth out those rough edges, to say the least.  He has a long way to go, but his ranking as one of the top short-season prospects is well-deserved, and I expect his raw statistics to improve in 2014 with a year of adjustments and reps under his belt. Rosario should already be a target for deep-league dynasty owners looking to jump on the best of the newest crop of international prospect, and he’s still a player to track for those in shallower prospect formats, as he’s a definite 2014 breakout candidate.

Mack – This is the second big time prospect piece on some prospect we didn’t realize was in this organization. One blog site already has him playing Brooklyn next year and I’ve read him as high as Savannah. Frankly, if this kid really has what I takes at 17, slow him down and send him back to Kingsport for the first half of the abbreviated 2014 season. You can always send him up in Brooklyn if he comes out of the box in in Tennessee.

Either way, his ETA wouldn’t be until 2018.