Mack Ade – Morning Report – 11-8-13 – 2014, BoSox, 1B, 2014 FA, 25-Man, Robinson Cano

JD Sussman -

A few free agents may make the Mets watchable, but like the Red Sox, the Mets need their current players to produce if they are going to be competitive. Signing  Stephen Drew, Shin-Soo Choo and one of Curtis Granderson/Nelson Cruz/Marlon Byrd/David Murphy and a few arms[3] — my preference — won’t matter if Ike Davis, Juan Lagares, and Travis d’Arnaud do not develop. http://bullpenbanter.com/on-the-mets-emulating-the-red-sox/

                Mack – We don’t spend enough time on this.

The Mets have developed a mob of underperformers…  Jordany Valdespin was supposed to be a starting middle infielder(.188)… Ruben Tejada was supposed to the shortstop of the decade (.202)… Kirk Nieuwenhuis was going to be the answer to centerfield (.189)… Travis d’Arnaud was labeled as ‘can’t miss’ (.202)… Ike Davis was destined to be an all-star by now (.205). Should I keep going?

                Wilmer Flores (.211)… Matt den Dekker (.207)… Lucas Duda (.223)…

You can’t expect a front office to replace the entire lineup, but the failure may be in the players not the front office. Everyone I just mentioned had wonderful ‘prospect’ like minor league careers. What are the odds that every one of them would go into the tank in the same year?

The 2013 Mets finished 50-50, but that was with Matt Harvey and Marlon Byrd. Can this team go lower or could 2013 just have been an off year that can partially be solved if two or three of the above mentioned ‘prospects’ get back on the horse?

Your thoughts…

 

Peter Gammons –

Though Boston has won three World Series titles in the last decade, both of its first two were followed by prompt stumbles out of the playoffs -- and then missing the playoffs entirely. A Red Sox team that won the World Series in 2004 was swept in the ALDS in 2005 and missed the postseason in 2006. Though the 2007 World Series champions took Tampa Bay to a Game Seven in the ALCS in 2008, they were swept out of the ALDS in 2009 and then missed the playoffs in 2010, 2011 and 2012. http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20131106-why-did-the-red-sox-fade-after-2004-and-2007-lessons-to-be-learned.ece

Mack – This is an interesting article about how a great team can turn into a bad one, twice. It’s all about starting pitchers, something the Red Sox seem to set up with for years to come. Long term Mack readers know how I have always been a big fan of how they approach the draft. They aren’t afraid of spending their money on big name prospects and injuries during school years don’t seem to get in their way of their long term plan. As the article points out, there current AAA rotation probably is the best in minor league baseball.

We talk all the time about the Mets ‘big seven’…  Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia, Syndergaard, Montero… the more you keep these guys around, the more you control your eventual destiny.

                Read this one.

 

Matt Cerrone –

The reality is, that side of his infield is essentially up in the air, and very much will be dictated by what upgrades can be acquired for other positions (namely the outfield and shortstop).

In either case, I agree with Francesa that Duda has a leg up on Davis, if for no other reason than Ike is due to make $5 million or so in 2014. It’s unlikely Davis will be non-tendered, because he has a surprising amount of value on the trade market, but until he has a contract in hand I suppose anything is possible… http://metsblog.com/metsblog/lucas-duda-has-a-leg-up-on-ike-davis/

                                Mack – Boy, I’m sick of writing about Mets that have failed at their jobs.

My vote would still be to give Ike Davis one more change through the 2014 all-star break, but I agree with Matt when he says that Davis has more trade appeal than Duda.

I slept on all this last night… sign Corey Hart to play first base and trade both these guys for PTBNL based on their 2014 stats for their new team.  

 

John Harper –

The Mets, remember, had some $50 million come off the books as the contracts of Johan Santana, Jason Bay and Frank Francisco expired, leaving them with two guaranteed contracts for next year, belonging to David Wright and Jon Niese, worth $25 million. Yet they’re expected to add no more than $30-40 million, and combined with the $25 million or so their under-control players will cost the Mets, their payroll is likely to be in the same $90 million range it was in last year.  http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/harper-time-mets-pony-cash-article-1.1509176#ixzz2jyXZ1rrR

                Mack – Harper feels, like I do, that most or all of the new Mets will come via free agency. I too only expect one impact player that will cost us the 2^nd round pick, but I look for three or four more players to be added to the ‘new’ 25-man squad for 2014.

When this is all said and done, I expect the 25-man (on opening day) will include:

                Rotation Pitchers(4)  – Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia

Relief Pitchers (5) -  Black, Edgin, Familia, Germen, Torres

Infielders (3) – d’Arnaud, Centeno, Wright, Satin

Outfielders (3) – Lagares, Young, den Dekker

The think the other 10 players are still to be determined and may include more new names than retreads like Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada.

We have a long way to go in this off-season.

 

Jay Schreiber -    

Which is too bad. Cano, as a Met, would allow the team to slide Murphy over to first base, a position he has played before. And Murphy at first would allow the Mets to put a halt to the dead-end debate over whether Lucas Duda is a little less worse than Ike Davis, or vice versa, and instead send both players elsewhere. And finally, Cano as a Met might turn New York baseball upside down, giving the Mets a chance to truly move ahead of the Yankees for the first time in 25 years. In Cano and Wright, after all, the Mets would have the two best players in New York in the same lineup.         

Mack – I like it on paper, but this would take a 2014 salary of $25mil and a multi-year deal over $200mil. Are the Mets ready to pay someone more than they pay David Wright?

I like the Murphy at first base idea. He’s a far better hitter than either Duda or Davis, though the Mets would sacrifice potential home run power there. This would leave the Mets around $15-20mil more this year to fill in at shortstop, the fifth starter and another outfielder.

It would make quite the headline, but I just don’t see the Mets going in this direction… but wouldn’t it be fun to stick it to the Yankees?