Mack’s Morning Report – 11-21-13 – ‘Player Evaluation By Position’ – 1B

 

One of the regular features I do every off-season is the ‘Player Evaluation By Position’. Regulars here at the site have come to rely on it to give a glimpse into the future of each position and who the Mets currently have in the pipeline. For year, it was the only true study on who was in the system and I’m proud that many sites do their own version now with writers that learned about the Mets affiliates on our site here.

We’ll start with first base.

Queens wise, we have four options which are plenty to get through the season. Rumors continue to develop that either Lucas Duda or Ike Davis will depart via a trade, but it’s too early to predict if that will happen.

We are all familiar with Jeff Wilpon’s comments that the Mets currently have a ‘glut’ of first basemen. Well, they added another this week (Brandon Allen) which raises the total currently under contract are 15 in the seven stateside affiliates. Allen will probably join Allan Dykstra and Earl Campbell in camp fighting it out for the one roster spot that will be available. Campbell (AAA - .314/.435/.475/.910) will most probably survive here due to the fact that he also plays third base and both corner outfield positions. He continues to be projected as a future utility player in Queens. Dykstra just completed his second season in a row in Binghamton (.274/.436/.503/.938, 21-HR, 82-RBI) and must be moved up to make room for the players behind him. He also is raking in winter ball (.395) which makes the Allen signing even more perplexing.

The 2014 Binghamton first baseman was supposed to be a battle between Jayce Boyd and Aderlin Rodriquez; however, Boyd is still recovering from shoulder surgery that shut him down for the end of last season. Add to this A-Rod’s continued struggle at the plate (2013 AFL winter ball: .194) and this may be the last chance he will get to prove he should remain in the organization.

Boyd had a great season. He started out by leading the SAL in hitting (.361) and finished off hitting .292 for St.Lucie. At one point, he was forced to only DH until the surgery I mentioned above would be performed in the off season. Combined A/A+ stats were: 458-AB, .330/.410/.461/.871, 9-HR, 29-doubles, 83-RBIs.

(Plan B could be sending either Allen to Binghamton until Boyd is ready, or leaving Dykstra back for a third season).

The St. Lucie spring training camp battle should be Brian Harrison (2013: St. Lucie, 32-AB, .219) and Cole Frenzel (2013: Savannah, 422-AB, .235, 60-AB). Franzel goes into camp as the odds-on favorite over Harrison, who has had trouble staying healthy during his short professional career.

Actually, one of the more intriguing competitions will be for the Sand Gnats first baseman. There’s Matt Oberste (2013 – Brooklyn, 255-AB, a disappointing .208) who was last year’s seventh round draft pick out of Oklahoma vs. Alex Sanchez (2013 – Brooklyn, 234-AB, .239). Both bat from the right side of the plate so this isn’t one of your true lefty-righty competitions. Sanchez will play next year as a 23-year old, Oberste at 22.

Which leads us to Dominic Smith (GCL, .287/.384/.407/.791 – Kingsport: 4-6, 4-doubles, 4-RBIs, ..667/750/1.333/2.083). I may have him high, but if Baseball America says he’s one of the top bats in minor league baseball, that’s good enough for me to play high-rookie ball. Jonathan Leroux, who had a good season last year in Kingsport (.286) also projects to play for the 2014 Cyclones.

The last four could be assigned to either Kingsport or the GCL Mets. They are Zach Mathieu (Kingsport, 80-AB, .138), Manuel Hilario (GCL Mets, 10-AB, .100), Elvis Sanchez (GCL Mets, 55-AB, .109), and Brandon Brosher (GCL Mets, 61-AB, .180).

Summation:

I could be wrong where Dom Smith will start the 2014 season, but I’m sure we all can agree that he is the future first baseman of this franchise. On the surface the problem seems to be that there is no backup plan. Matt Harvey proved to us last year that everything can chance in an instance.

Dykstra was a first round draft pick the same year that Ike Davis was picked and my guess is if he was going to make it to the majors, he would already be there by now.

For now, Boyd looks to be the closest thing we have for a ‘Plan B’ at this position, but we’re going to have to see how the shoulder heals and give him another year to earn his keep. The good news is he was always known as a hitting machine for the three years he played at Florida State.

My guess is, if Smith didn’t pan out by 2014, either through lack of production or injury, this position will continue to be one filled by people outside the organization for the remainder of the decade.  

Grade:  B