Michael Scannell - Here We Go Again

We’re finally here, Offseason 2014 and the hot stove is heating up….well, it’s at least lukewarm.  There’s been talk about free agents, trade acquisitions, moving players out of town, a lot of talking from Mets officials and even more talking across the blogosphere – most of it pessimistic.  We’re all afraid that we’re going to be let down as the talk of acquiring bigger names and spending more money continues to be walked back every time Alderson talks.  However, it’s still early and I’m not ready to join the boo birds just yet.

The only signing so far has been ridiculed and criticized almost universally.  I’m still willing to give our FO the benefit of the doubt that they are feeling out the market and they’re actively seeking improvements.  True, we heard last year that the OF would be upgraded and then Alderson passed on the few options that were out there.  I wasn’t as critical of this as some because I didn’t think Bourn was a long-term solution or worth the money he wanted.  I also didn’t think trading Wheeler for Upton would have been the right move and thankfully the Mets passed.  I think this offseason is different.  The fans’ frustration and impatience is palpable and I’m sure was reflected on the balance sheet this year when attendance and advertising revenues were reviewed.  The team knows they have to improve or they risk losing a large number of fans for an extended period of time.  The honeymoon is officially over and there has to be a product on the field that fans can actually be excited about.  It doesn’t have to be a World Series year, but it must be a transitional year where improvements are made…not a lost year like 2013, Matt Harvey or no Matt Harvey.

So, what is the team to do?  There are limited options and a finite amount of money to spend.  When I usually work on prospective lineups, I always focus on the main 13 (8 regulars, 5 rotation pitchers) and will do the same here.  What we know:  The Mets want to improve SS, want to add at least 2 (and quite possibly 3 OF), 2 starting pitchers to what they have.  D’Arnaud is going to be the starting catcher, 1B is going to likely be Duda or Davis, Wright will stay at 3B, and the team will have to fill in any gaps created by making trades to address the improvements already listed.

1)   Trade Ike Davis to Tampa Bay for Jeremy Hellickson

Rumors have had 5 teams interested in Davis to varying degrees.  It seems Milwaukee and Houston have backed off of their interest, leaving Baltimore, Colorado, and Tampa Bay as potential landing spots for the embattled 1B.  Of these 3 teams, I think TB presents the best potential return for Ike.  Hellickson was the ROY in 2011 after being one of the top prospects in all of baseball and followed that season up with an equally impressive 2012.  However, 2013 was a horrific season for him and he could be ripe for a change of scenery.  Would the Rays give up on him so easily, especially in an offseason where they are expected to shop David Price?  It’s difficult to say, but if any team could it would be Tampa.  They have incredible pitching depth and it can assumed that some young pitching would be coming back their way in any Price deal.  Also, if they hold onto Hellickson they run the risk that he continues to slide and loses any value he might have.  If James Loney moves on to greener ($$$) pastures as he is expected to, they’ll have a hole at 1B.  Swapping Hellickson for Ike Davis could be the sort of change-of-scenery win-win deal that’s needed for these two players.  Hellickson could easily return to form in the pitcher-friendly NL, especially in Citifield.  Davis may well return to his big power days, I just don’t believe it’s ever going to happen here.  His head is too messed up in NYM, evident in the report that he has already wanted out.  The Mets might have to add a bit to the deal, but then the Rays might also throw in something else to balance it out, so for now I’m leaving the deal as a 1-for-1 swap.  The Mets move a headache and address one of the starting pitching slots that they want to.  Hellickson would likely slide into the SP3 role after Wheeler and Niese.

2)   Trade Kevin Plawecki and Jacob deGrom for Andre Ethier and $11.5M

It’s no secret that the Dodgers want to get out from at least one of their OF contracts.  For the Mets, Ethier seems to be the best option of the three.  Kemp, well the most talented carries the heftiest contract and the largest injury risk.  Carl Crawford seems to be a shell of his former self and far too expensive.

The Mets need production from the OF, there is no disputing that.  Ethier is far from my first choice but he is an interesting option nonetheless.  If the Mets were to acquire him, I’d return him to the #2 spot in the lineup, a spot he thrived in during his career.  Even though he seems to have started towards the end of his prime years, he still posted a .360 OBP for the Dodgers last year, something the Mets could certainly use in front of David Wright.

The $11.5M gets Ethier’s salary to an even $15M per season for the life of the contract (2014-2017) as well as covers his buyout for 2018 or brings the 2018 salary down to $15M.  Plawecki and deGrom have potential but they are B prospects.  There are enough pitching prospects in the system to make up for the loss of someone like deGrom and the organization is committed to d’Arnaud as the catcher of the present and future.  The reason I would make this offer instead of top prospects is that the Mets are taking on the bulk of the contract.  Ethier is a player I could see contributing to the Mets but he’s not someone I’d want to spend top prospects on.  Acquiring him for these two solves one of the OF problems without creating too much pain.

      3)   Trade Dillon Gee, Daniel Murphy, Cesar Puello and $2M to Kansas City for Alex Gordon and Sean Maneae

Gordon is a player I’ve wanted the Mets to add for years.  He’s been rumored to be available at trade deadlines and in offseason hot stoves but deals have not been made for him.  I believe that the Mets have interest in him as they explored dealing for him last year.  This year, Kansas City is looking for starting pitching and a 2B.  Trading Gordon would also create a hole in their OF but it doesn’t have to be long-term.  Gee could be a valuable pitcher for the Royals and Murphy could be the 2B they’re looking for.  Puello would start the year in AAA but could be up by mid-year.  The Royals can stand to trade Gordon because the team is becoming more and more about its pitching and Hosmer and Moustakas.  Gordon makes up a large percentage of their payroll and is only signed for another two years.  He’s likely to leave as a free agent when the team needs to commit more money to its younger players.  I’d ask the Royals to add a prospect to the deal and went with Maneae.  He carries sizable risk with his injury but also sizable upside.  He’s in the Royals’ Top 10 prospects but closer to 10 than the top.  The Royals paid him a $3.5M bonus for him when they drafted him so I included $2M to soften the blow.  Because he was drafted only last June, this trade would have to wait until the middle of January at least, so that Maneae could be included as a PTBNL.

With Flores on the team and the need for someone to hit in the middle of the lineup, I would trade Daniel Murphy for Gordon without thinking twice.  Since the Mets have already stated they want 2 starting pitchers this offseason, it appears that Gee, Mejia, or Montero would be on the trade block.  Wheeler and Niese are locks for the rotation and Syndergaard won’t be traded.  That leaves 3 pitching jobs – 2 rotation spots and a placeholder for Syndergaard.  Assuming an offseason addition holds down the fort for Noah, we’re down to 2 spots and 1 of Gee, Mejia, and Montero to potentially fill only 1 of them as the 2^nd acquired pitcher (I’ve gone with Hellickson) to fill the other.  Since Gee will likely be the most attractive in trade and Hellickson could potentially provide as good (if not better) production, the Mets can afford to trade him. 

4)   Sign Jhonny Peralta for 3 years, $39M

The Mets obviously want to upgrade at SS from outside the organization and it seems that Peralta is their favorite target.  While things are on hold right now, I don’t believe they’ve completely soured and the Mets will still be negotiating with him.  I think his price will eventually come back down to Earth and the Mets will wind up as the team that signs him.

5)   Trade for Daniel Nava

Okay, I’m punting on this one.  After putting all the other pieces together, I’ve found myself in need of an OF who can hit leadoff and who is likely to be available.  I settled on Nava because of his performance last year with the Red Sox and the likelihood that he won’t be in the starting OF there.  Victorino will be in RF, when/if Ellsbury leaves Bradley will take over in CF, and the Sox have been rumored to be interested in adding another OF.  That squeezes Nava out of the starting picture.  It remains to be seen if they value him as an irreplaceable super-sub or if the Mets would have what the Sox would want in trade. 

The lineup (with salaries):

1.     RF Nava (0.5)

2.     CF Ethier (15)

3.     3B Wright (20)

4.     LF Gordon (10)

5.     SS Peralta (13)

6.     1B Duda (2)

7.     2B Flores (0.5)

8.     Ca d’Arnaud (0.5)

SP1 Wheeler (0.5)

SP2 Niese (5)

SP3 Hellickson (3.5)

SP4 Mejia (0.5)

SP5 Matsuzaka (0.5)/Syndergaard (0.5)  

The total salary for that group would come to $72M for the 2014 season.  That should leave plenty of room in the budget for the FO to round out the rest of the roster.

Of the 3 OF’s, Ethier has experience there and I expect him to play well enough.  He wouldn’t be nearly as good as Lagares but he’ll add enough offensively.  He was good enough to play CF on a team that went to the NLCS.  Gordon might not have much experience hitting in the middle of a lineup but he has 20+ HR power and is an all-star and professional hitter.  He’s not a thumper, but considering what’s available I think he’s a great option to add to the lineup.  I expect Duda to have a solid season given how he was performed with less pressure and without having to balance playing such an uncomfortable defensive position.  He’s not a long-term answer there but he can be good enough hitting 6^th for the next year or two.  Flores and d’Arnaud took their lumps last year and hopefully gained a lot of growth from the experience.  At the bottom of the lineup and with more veterans to take the pressure off, I think they’ll make progress.  Top to bottom, that lineup might not be spectacular but it is solid 1-8 if everyone plays to their potential and performs to their roles.

The pitching staff has questions (can Wheeler take the next step, how healthy is Niese, can Hellickson bounce back, what can we expect from Mejia over a whole season, will Syndergaard be the next big thing?) but has the potential to be very good.  The FO wants two starting pitchers.  Hellickson fills one role and I’d expect the Mets to sign Matsuzaka or someone similar as the second to hold down a spot until Syndergaard is ready.

When Harvey returns in 2015, this team could be primed to take another step forward.  All of the position players will still be under team control, Flores and d’Arnaud will have a full year’s experience and the team could have an embarrassment of starting pitching to deal from to make further improvements.   With Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Syndergaard, Mejia, Montero, and Hellickson the Mets could have the deepest pitching in MLB.

The team assembled doesn’t have the sexiest names but I believe it would accomplish three goals – compete for a playoff spot, keep payroll flexibility, and keep most of the farm system intact.