Why The Mets Should Hop Aboard The David Price Express Part 1

From MLBTraderumors.com: “In an article last week ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported that David Price signed a one-year, $10.1125MM contract to avoid arbitration last January, but $5MM of that sum comes in the form of a signing bonus that is deferred to next year. While it was presented as a tax-related issue at the time, Stark notes that the Rays can use it as leverage in a trade, agreeing to take a slightly lesser package if the acquiring team pays that additional $5MM.”

What if that package was 1B Ike Davis, 2B Daniel Murphy and 2B/1B Wilmer Flores in return for Price and Ben Zobrist? The Mets would have in their possession one of the top trading chips of the 2013 offseason and a power bat who can play all over the field.

As outrageous such a deal sounds on the surface, dig a little deeper, and it makes sense for both parties.

Why?

The Rays need a power hitting 1B. Ike Davis fits the bill. Also, Tampa Bay is always looking to get high ceiling talent that is younger and cheaper than what they’ve traded away-Flores is high ceiling and although arbitration-eligible, Murphy is a cheaper option than Zobrist. The power they lose by trading Zobrist is made up for with Davis and Flores. The hustling Murphy would seem like a perfect fit with Maddon’s Rays, and give them a player, like Zobrist, who could move around the field.

From ESPN, “In 2013, the Tampa Bay Rays used 15 different hitters in the designated hitter spot in their lineup. That group ended up batting a combined .214 on the season -- tied for 13th in the American League.”

Flores is a born DH. But all three players they acquire could DH effectively, and give the creative Maddon added flexibility when writing up his line-up card.

As for the Mets, well they add the 2012 Cy Young Winner to their rotation-and bring in an established bat to protect Wright in the line-up. Even in a down year Zobrist was an All-Star with a 5.1 WAR. He also smacked a dozen HR’s and36 doubles. On the basepath’s he a threat to steal 12-15 bases, with the potential for more-he swiped 24 in 2010 and 19 in 2011.

Most importantly for the Rays, they are off the hook for the $5 million remaining they’d have to pay Price in 2014. That mean’s with Price’s upcoming arbitration, he’d cost the Mets about $15 million.

Even at $7 million for 2014, he’s still cheaper than the newly acquired Chris Young and if he flops in the orange and blue, there’s a $2.5 million buyout option for 2015. If he joined the Free Agent ranks in 2015 the Mets would almost assuredly be in line for a compensation draft pick.

You’ve lost Murphy but Zobrist has more power and becomes your starting SS, on most days, because another great thing about Zobrist, is his ability to play all over the diamond.

Now let’s address the key piece of this trade-David Price.

Since they would now possess the most-desired pitcher available this winter, the Mets would have huge trade flexibility, teams would be lining up at their door with offers.

Or they could do the unexpected.

Keep him.

Before we address the obvious, trading Price this winter, we’ll look at the opposite side of the coin. The powers that be have said the Mets have $25-$30 million available to spend this offseason. Let’s say the Rays agree to eat roughly $2 million or so of that $5 million. Now the Mets are on the hook to Price for $3 million and his arbitration for the 2014 season, which I’ve read would probably be around $13 million, so $16 million in total. If that seems like a lot keep in mind that if you retained the arbitration eligible Davis and Murphy, you’d spend around $5 million for Murphy and another $3.5-$4 million for Davis. So a combined $9 million let’s say. Just with those two you’d be contributing $9 million to the 2014 payroll. So adding Price would cost $7 million, less than $7.5 you spent on Chris Young.

By trading them and adding Price, as well as Zobrist, to the already signed Young, you’re increasing payroll substantially, but you’re only paying each player for one year and you would still have enough left over to sign a low-cost power bat like Jason Kubel, or invite Grady Sizemore to spring training on a minor league deal. But you’ve added a Cy Young winner and 2x All Star.

What’s the on field impact?

Let’s look at the line-ups:

Currently

1b-Davis

2b-Murphy

SS-Tejada

3b-Wright

LF-Young Jr.

CF-Lagares

RF-Young

P-Niese

P-Wheeler

P-Gee

P-Meijia

P-??

  

With Price and Zobrist

 

1b-Duda

2b-Young Jr.

ss-Zobrist

3b-Wright

LF-Kubel? Sizemore?

CF-Lagares

RF-Young

P-Price

P-Wheeler

P-Niese

P-Gee

P-Familia

The positional flexibility afforded by Zobrist would allow the Mets to target the best available player in their price range and not be limited by focusing on a specific position. So you could sign Jeff Baker let’s say, and move Zobrist to LF.

Keeping Price might seem like a luxury, but would it be? In some ways it makes more sense than trading him right away. Retaining David Price would give the Mets a formidable rotation to challenge both the Braves and Nats. Especially when you consider by July he would be joined by Syndegaard and Montero. Speaking of those two, the addition of Price to the rotation would keep the Mets from rushing either of their two prized arms down on the farm.

The Mets might not score a helluva lot of runs, but they wouldn’t give up many either. Citi Field would be packed the games when Price pitches and his uni sales would probably challenge Wright’s. Also, watch how fast season ticket sales take off. Oh, I almost forgot, Price is a lefty.  Imagine you’re a team coming to Citi Field for a three game series and you have to face Price on Friday night, Wheeler Saturday and then Niese on Sunday.  

How did the Braves and Nats fare against southpaws last season?

Atlanta .239/.321/.380

Washington .239/.306/.367

How about the World Series champion Cardinals?

.238/.301/.371

Making this trade and keeping Price could put the Mets right in the thick of the Wild Card race and if things broke right, possibly in contention for an NL East title too. It would also soften the blow of losing Harvey for the season. If the team tanks in 2014, then you peddle Price at the summer trade deadline when a huge feeding frenzy would occur in pursuit of his services.

But instead let’s be optimistic, and believe that this trade goes a long way to making the Mets contenders next season. Imagine meaningful baseball being played in September for the first time at Citi Field. A year of David Price would be worth that wouldn’t you agree?

In that scenario after the season ends, Prices departs and Harvey returns. The Mets get draft pick compensation for Price, as well as Zobrist if he leaves too, and depending on what Young does, possible draft compensation for him as well. Instead of a lost season the Mets enter 2015 with a) money to spend, b) added draft picks for future prospects, and c) the return of Harvey, as well as the first full season of Syndegaard and Montero in the Mets rotation. A combination of the network television money and increased revenue for the team due to sell-out crowds watching an exciting team playing meaningful baseball into September puts to rest worries about the Wilpon money woes.

It may like an impossible dream but all the pieces are in place for a such deal to happen. The Rays and Mets match up well as trade partners. Let’s face it someone is going to acquire David Price this winter. I would hate for it to be the Braves, Nats…or that team across town.

Next week I will talk the more obvious outcome from this proposed trade idea, the Mets trade David Price. I’ll look at scenarios and possible landing spots. But as I wrote this I became more in favor of keeping Price for 2014 if the Mets pulled a trade involving him.