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12/11/13

Mack’s Morning Report – 12-11 – Arizona Shortstops, OD Lineup, 2014 Rotation, Wilfredo Tovar, Dylan Bundy


 

No team matches up better with the Mets than Arizona. The Mets have a ton of young pitching the Diamondbacks would welcome and Arizona has multiple players that play shortstop.

Their shortstop situation is:

Didi Gregorius – The current starter for Arizona. Hit .252/.332/.373/.704, 7-HR, 28-RBI in 357-AB. Will play 2014 at 24-years old.

Chris Owings – The #3 prospect in the system. Hit .330/.359/.482/.841, 12-HR, 81-RBI. Got a cup of coffee (55-AB) at the end of the season (.291). Will play 2014 at 22-years old.

Cliff Pennington – Utility player that plays 2B, SS, and 3B. 2013: 269-AB, .242/.310/.309/.618. Will play 2014 at 30-years old.

Nick Ahmed – The #12 prospect in the system . He played AA in 2013 (487-AB, .236)

On paper, Owings looks like the guy you would want, but Gregorius has already proven his value at the major league level. I would be happy with either of them.      

 

Anthony Dicomo predicted that the opening lineup, based on the current roster,  will look like this:

Eric Young, Jr., LF - Daniel Murphy, 2B - David Wright, 3B - Curtis Granderson, RF - Chris Young, CF - Lucas Duda, 1B - Travis d’Arnaud, C - Ruben Tejada, SS - Jon Niese, LHP

DiComo feels that the Mets will go with EYJ’s bat over Lagares’ glove, and, if Murphy is traded, EYJ would move to second and Lagares would start in center.

 

It’s too early to determine what the opening day rotation will be, but we can project what the board looks like right now based on the current staff.

The most important thing is we know that Noah Syndergaard will not be on it. He, like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler in the past, will be held back so he doesn’t become eligible for both free agency and salary arbitration a year earlier.

But this doesn’t mean you won’t see other rookies on the squad come opening day. My guess right now is:

            The top  three slots are frozen: Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler, and Dillon Gee

            The last two are between Jenrry Mejia, Carlos Torres, Jacob deGrom, and Rafael Montero.

The Mets can’t hold back everyone and, unless they can pull a one-year SP rabbit out of their hat this week, they will most probably go with some combination of what I just broke out above. Then, come July, Syndergaard will join Montero as the SP4 and SP5 and the rotation is done until Harvey comes back.

 

Erik Hudson  asked -

Hey Mack, how close is Wilfredo Tovar to being MLB-ready?  Is his defense good enough to be an all glove, no hit type SS?  Some of these types that the Mets have been rumored to be looking at, have such a low bar offensively, I was wondering if Tovar could reach that low bar at a minimum.

Tejada .202/.259./.260

Izturis batted just .209/.259/.271 in his age-33 season with the Reds

Barmes .211/.249/.309 (age 34)

The Cuban SS is supposed to be an all glove type as well

            Mack – Good hearing from you, Erik.

Technically, Tovar is MLB ready. He was called up for a cup of coffee last season (15-AB, .200), but he still hasn’t played a single game at the AAA level. Tovar can play second base, but he is primarily a shortstop, and has been the best defensive infielder in the system for the past three years. The boy can play shortstop! The problem is he really doesn’t hit well enough to project to the majors. His minor league stats over five years are: .260/.294/.200/.494. Did you read them?A .494 OPS isn’t going to get you a shot on the Long Island Ducks.

Erik, IMHO, the Mets are going to have to look elsewhere to solve their shortstop problems.

 

And lastly, did you read about the interest the Orioles supposedly had in obtaining the services of 2B Daniel Murphy? The fun part was it was also reported (and you just never know how much of all this chatter is correct) that Sandy Alderson shot back… sure… Dylan Bundy.

I can’t tell you if this was true, but I hope it was. This is how the tennis game of negotiation works. They tell you one player, you ask for another. I don’t think there is any chance of getting Bundy, but, you never know, it could lead to the Orioles saying no, but how about Kevin Gausman?

The fun part is working through all this Twitter BS and trying to figure out what is real and what isn’t.

15 comments:

  1. So far we haven't improved our team from last year squad. I say Granderson has about the same stats as Byrd did last year. Chris young was a waste of money DenDekker would have had the same stats as him .225 avg 15 hrs and 63 rbi's at 7 million cheaper. And Are ace is out for the whole year. So I actually think we will have a worse record this year and the nationals will run away with our division. We need a legit cleanup hitter batting behind wright and move Grandy to the 5th spot. I do think lagares and Darnaud will be better than they were last year though.

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  2. Mack,
    I was disappointed in Sandy. He should have asked Baltimore for Machado :-)

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  3. ZoZo....Granderson is a legit power hitter.

    Even with the transition to a larger park he still has 30+ HR power. Def something Byrd didnt have.

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  4. I sorta agree with Zozo. Leaving EYJ in LF is obviously status quo. CY in CF over a Legares/den D split (if not pure platoon)is a mrginal upgrade at best, with Granderson over Byrd only slightly better. CY-Legares/dD-CG would be my choice.

    EYJ is a 4/5 OF who could get some AB's at 2nd I suppose -- especially spelling Flores if Murph is traded.

    So could Duda/Ike + Murph/Flores yield ZOBRIST? Could you add to that to (NOT Gee, Niese, Wheels or Thor) get Helickson too?

    That's my fantasy. Zobrist(SS); Murphy; Wright; Grandy; C.Young; Ike/Satin; TDA; Legares/denD
    and SP: Gee-Neise-Wheeler-Hellickson-Mejia/Santana?

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  5. This team is so Frustrating.
    They make it very hard to like the Mets.
    and
    They are making it very easy for long time fans to feel abused/misused.

    What was this "PLAN" they spoke so highly about???

    It was the PLAN that would make them much better in 2014. It was so wonderful that we as Met fans accepted 3 full years of complete garbage.

    This wonderful "PLAN" is now out-the-window because of ONE player being lost?
    This ONE player, who was not considered the ACE of the staff 3 years ago when the "PLAN" started, was the linch-pin?
    Really?

    So...If Harvey was healthy... The Mets would have brought in:
    1) a better outfieder than C. Young?
    2) a better short stop?
    3) a better starting pitcher?
    4) been able to trade either Davis or Duda easier?

    So... If Harvey was healthy... The Mets would be able to increase payroll?

    If Harvey was healthy....
    The Mets would stop talking out of both sides of their mouth

    I'm sorry
    BUT
    I am tired of being told one thing and yet being shown another

    I am tired of being lied to

    I am tired of this "PLAN" that appearantly consists of:

    "Let's hope that we fill an entire roster of diamond-in-the-roughs and lightning-in-a-bottles"

    "we are able to increase payroll if there is an opportunity to make us better"
    but
    "in order to get (so and so) we have to move Davis/Murphy first"????

    I am very interested in seeing how David Wright reacts to this off-season.

    I am really interested in seeing how,if, and to what degree the media will question Wright on how this off-season matches with the "PLAN" that convinced him to stay a Met.

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  6. I know it's frustrating, but so far, they've started off the offseason by making some upgrades to our roster. Granderson being the centerpiece of that so far and Young being another nice addition make the Mets better.

    They are probably done with big free agent signings and are now focusing on some kind of trade. They're going to deal Murphy, Davis, probably even Duda too in order to get us a few solid arms either for starting pitching or bullpen relief.

    The plan for 2014 isn't over, it's only begun. Just gotta be patient. You waited this long, a few more months isn't so bad,trust me, they got more talent coming soon ;-)

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  7. Zozo - You are in the minority. Just about every pundit and fan agree that the Mets are already a better team than last year, and it is still early in the off season.

    Bob - The plan has been and still is being followed. It was to acquire top young talent to rebuild the farm system (check) and then, prior to 2014, bring in major league players to fill holes. (check) We may now be pointing more toward 2015 than 2014, but they are in the process of putting a team that can compete for a wild card on the field this year too.

    I'm not going to respond to your allegations of being lied to, because thay have no merit. The owners and FO said exactly what they had to say during the last 3 years, in order to maintain fan interest and sell tickets. What did you expect them to say? "Boo hoo, boo hoo, we are broke and can't afford to get any decent players. Maybe all you fans should take a nap, and come back in 2014 when we might be respectable again."

    Now let me get to the comment I originally wanted to put in.

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  8. Mack -

    The problem with our matchup with AZ is that Sandy doesn't want to give up that ton of young power arms he has acquired. I don't think you are going to get a Gregorius or Owings for deGrom, Mazzoni and Tapia.

    I think it is silly to conjecture on what the lineup will be with the roster as it is today, when it is a pretty good bet that there will be a few more changes. However, I do agree with DiComo that EYJ would stay in LF if Murphy is still on the team on opening day. Regarding the rotation, Sandy could still acquire a solid mid-rotation arm, but it looks less and less likely. Rather, I think he brings in a few "buy low" starters, like maybe Johan, Dice-K, Harang and/or Neimann, and lets them all compete with Mejia for the #s 4 & 5 spots.

    Regarding the Orioles interest in Murphy, Kevin Gausman would be another great "shoot high" target, but I don't think the Orioles would give him up. After all, Mayo ranks him higher than Bundy (No. 1 to be exact) in the Orioles Top 20. I really think Hardy is the most logical target if we wind up dealing Murphy to Baltimore.

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  9. Herb...

    of all the condescending, blind to reality comments

    REALLY?
    it is ok to be LIED to as a fan?
    Because ... how else could they sell tickets??

    that is acceptable?? to you? to fans?

    you are absolutely correct. The Mets have every right to say and do whatever the heck they choose to do.
    But
    with every action or non action comes consequences.

    These LIES, and yes they are LIES, as can be supported through FACTS when aligning what has been quoted over the past few years and what actions or non actions occured, breaks a level of trust with fans.

    It is bad enough when loyal fans suffer through and make allowances for multiple years of garbage on the field.
    Attendance, ratings, and merchandise sales plummet

    add to this breaking this level of Trust with remaining fans will result in a nose-dive of those same ticket sales, ratings, and merchandise sales.

    NOBODY likes to be lied to... especially after giving someone the benefit of the doubt over and over and over again

    The only thing that does not have merit are the excuses.

    you say the "PLAN" is in effect and working?

    Let me ask you....
    what happens when/if:

    Wheeler ends with a season ending injury?
    or Wright?
    Or Granderson?
    Or Neise?
    any one of the above?

    Or one or two of the prospects fizzle out?

    Or 2 or three starting pitchers are hurt?
    Or 2-3 position players?

    These are all Real occurences over the past couple years. Real possibilities.

    You forget to mention also that NONE of those pundits or fans believe the Mets have a chance or reaching the playoffs this year.
    AND
    there aren't any that believe it for next year either.

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  10. I'm inclined to agree with Bob about the lies from Alderson. He seems to fit the old adage about the Missouri weather----"If you don't like it (what he says), wait 5 minutes and it'll change". He bounces from "we've got plenty of available money" to "we'll have to clear payroll to get xxxx". From "we're looking for a 1-year veteran SP" to "we're talking to Arroyo (who wants a 3-year deal)"; from (a year ago) "outfield is our #1 priority" to "we think Collin Cowgill, Andrew Brown and Marlon Byrd (whom no other team wanted) will make us better"; from (this year) "SS is one of our top priorities" to "don't be surprised if Tejada is there on OD".

    And on and on and on...

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  11. Herb, I'm not being silly.

    I'm being entertaining and creating things to discuss, that's all.

    Miss your writing, buddy.

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  12. As for the rotation, knowing that we expect Harvey, Thor, Mejia and Montero to be ready next year, I'd be OK with looking at "fillers"---
    1-year veterans with low-guarantees plus incentives---to compete in ST.

    I'd include Dice-K (who looked terrific after Warthen's tinkering), Harang, Johan, Garcia, Lannan, Marquis (if healthy) and others. I'd love Colon, but it looks like he's out of our GM's price range.

    NO need to put packages together for Price, Sale, et al, who'd be great targets if pitching were our priority beyond this season. But it isn't.

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  13. We may be on the verge of completing our 5 man rotation for the next 5 years.

    Corey Hart is considering signing with the Seattle Mariners to play with Cano and get at bats as a DH to keep him healthy.

    If this happens Milwaukee may succumb to Sandy's demands for Tyler Thornburg in exchange for Davis.

    Gives us Niese, Wheeler, Gee, Thornburg, and Mejia for 2014.

    Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Syndergaard, Thornburg for 2015-2017

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  14. Thornberg was terrific in his 18 ML games last year, but had an ERA over 5 at AAA.He's got a lot of potential, but what makes him so much better than Mejia, Montero, deGrom, Gee, and others already in our system?

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  15. @Bill

    Thornburg's AAA ERA was hyper inflated by a spike in HRs given up which to be expected playing in the PCL.

    The important pieces to look at is the fact that he maintained his 10.0+ K/9 rate.

    What sets him apart from Mejia, Montero, and deGrom is the fact that he has 3 plus pitches which can all be used to rack up K's plus he showed good success in a Small Sample Size in the MLB last season.

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