Mack’s Morning Report – 12-21 – 2030 Willets Point, Mike Trout, Eno Chat

 

Willets Point: $3 Billion -

Another example of a project that would come under fire from Bill De Blasio. Though locals argue their neighborhood isn't as blighted as the city claims it is, this 62-acre development—including 2,490 units of housing, a shopping center and an entrainment complex—was approved by City Council October. Last week, the city approved a $43 million tax break for its developers. Michael Bloomberg might be sneaking these projects into the world like a teenager tiptoeing through the backdoor after curfew, but that's not to say that De Blasio is anti-development. As Gothamist points out, he received thousands of dollars of campaign donations from the very developers mentioned in this article. He's more likely to be a "development pragmatist," in the words of Capital NY, driving harder bargains but not giving developers the complete (and very tall) cold shoulder. http://gizmodo.com/the-billion-dollar-megaprojects-that-will-transform-nyc-1484387579

Mack – I don’t know how much of all these projects will ever get done, but there sure are a lot of pretty drawings on this web site. Give a look at the proposed 2030 Queens will look like. Wonder what the ticket prices will be then.

 

The baseball world is trying to figure out what the Angeles Angels are going to do about CF Mike Trout. He will go ARB-1 before the 2015 season and it’s anyone’s guess what his salary will be that year. He’s also scheduled to become a free agent before the 2018 season which I’m sure the Angels will try and do what they can afford to do to avoid. His agent already balks daily at his current pre-ARB $510K salary, and experts in this matter say it will be a sure bet that be gets $10+mil next season. Bleacher Report (which is always nuts) is predicting he’ll be the first $400mil player.

The Angels have never had problems spending money and their current 2013 salaries come in at $134.5mil.  Barring injury, what would be the incentive of Trout signing a pre-ARB contract with the Angels? It’s not like his agent is going to go for some discounted rate for the best ballplayer in baseball. And what about the team? They already are under contract to pay $97.4mil to four ballplayers in 2016. Did you read that correctly. Around $12mil more than the entire Mets payroll for… four ballplayers.

The safe road? Let him play on your team for four more seasons and wish him well in free agency. Hopefully, you’ll win a world series or two during that period.

 

Don’t look for the Philadelphia Phillies to be making any big signings for the rest of the Hot Stove season. Ruben Amara said he will try and get through the 2014 season with his aging core of stars (Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz) along with this year’s new players, Marlon Byrd, Roberto Hernandez, and Brad Lincoln. The farm is not one of the better ones in baseball The best of what they had there (Domonic Brown, Darin Ruf, Jonathan Pettibone, Cody Asche) have already been called up in 2013 and no one else projects to be ready. Frankly, 2014 looks like a very long year for the Phillies and they could challenge the Marlins for last place in the division.

 

Brian Joura –

Rafael Montero, RHP, 2.43 ERA, 72 Ks in 66.2 IP in Double-A, 3.05 ERA, 78 Ks in 88.2 IP in Triple-A -  In somewhat similar IP at Binghamton as Syndergaard, Montero was the better pitcher. He had a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, a better K/BB ratio, a better HR rate and a better BB rate. Everyone is quick to point out that Syndergaard was hurt by his last start of the year on irregular rest. That’s true enough. It’s also true that he put up a good chunk of his stats in Binghamton on both an innings and pitch count limit. His best run of pitching was a four-start stretch where he did not exceed 71 pitches.

Contrast that with Montero, whose best stretch in Binghamton was his final three starts, where he threw 20 shutout innings, with 311 pitches.

But Montero also had great success in one of the toughest environments for a pitcher. After eight solid starts in the Pacific Coast League, Montero closed the season with seven dominating performances. In that stretch he had a 1.61 ERA, he limited opposing batters to a .557 OPS and he allowed 9 BB and had 44 Ks in 44.2 IP. And four of those seven games were in Las Vegas. http://mets360.com/?p=20070

Mack – Montero doesn’t get the press that Thor does, so it’s nice to see that Brian has tagged him with the number one prospect. We’re going to see him first and, depending upon the health and success of Jenrry Mejia, he will either be the SP5 early on or a member of the pen.

I’ve always hoped the Mets were healthy enough in the rotation to set up a potential pen of Montero, Mejia, Jeurys Familia, and (eventually) Marcos Camerena. This would represent some serious speed and sickness coming out of the pen.

 

Eno Sarris –

Comment From Mark - What do you see as potential returns to Mets for Ike, Duda, Murphy. Do you think Wilmer can Replace/Handle 2nd or 1st?  

Eno Sarris: I’d love for the Mets to option Duda, play Ike to rehabilitate value, then trade him mid-season with Flores maybe for something real. I do not think Flores can handle anything other than third or first. Murphy’s headed to third too.

 

Comment From Jon - Do you like Ike Davis as a platoon guy for the Pirates? They seem to be running out of 1B options unless they go completely off the board for someone like Jonathan Singleton or Brandon Belt…

Eno Sarris: Why not bite the bullet and get Morales. Gaby can spell him for defense. Worse defenders have played on the field in the NL. Maybe if the price drops far enough.   

 

Comment From Marty - T/F: Mets overpaid for Granderson and could’ve better spend that money elsewhere.

Eno Sarris: False. They needed an outfielder, and paying 80-100 million more for the top level guys didn’t make sense, and the rest of the crew is not an upgrade over MiLB invites and Rule 5 guys. I know I just trashed Nelson Cruz, but look at his WAR totals for the last three years. Do I love the fourth year? No.   

 

Comment From 5-cent head - If you look at what the A’s did here in the hot stove league, why do the METS, who I desperately want to support, seem to be lacking? The management at the Mets re coming from the same intellectual background, but should have more $ to spend. Are my expectations too high?

Eno Sarris: I think your expectations about money to spend are too high. I think the team is rotten at the very top, like the Knicks. Not the GM, higher up.   

 

Comment From Kings Lead Hat - Think the Mets go into 2014 with Ike/Duda at 1B, Murphy at 2B, and Tejada at SS, or does Sandy have a Christmas miracle in store for us?

Eno Sarris: Picked for the handle. since Duda has an option and most of the media and fans have bought into the idea that 2015 is more important than 2014 because of Harvey, I think Alderson stands pat if he doesn’t get a real prospect for Ike.

Comment From john - Im sorry, but Sandy Alderson said the other day that Eric Young’s speed doesn’t do them any good on the bench. 1) Sabermetrics doesn’t value stolen bases; 2) You still have to get on base to use the speed, and 3) wasn’t speed being his positive skill why Sandy didn’t even discuss extension with Reyes? Come on Eno, you can’t still be supporting this guy. EYJr doesn’t belong on a baseball team, let alone an every day line up LEADING OFF!  

Eno Sarris: I’m as stymied as you are by this. We’ll see what actually happens. Saber does value stolen bases if they come at a 66+% clip, though. And speed is valuable, just not a good only reason to give a guy like Reyes all that money.