(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)
2013
Stats: .222 AVG/.267 OBP/.348 SLG, 13 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, 29 2B, 6 3B, 35 BB, 165 K
(29th in MLB OPS)
Just like with the LF position, a lot of guys played CF for the club last season. As bad as LF was until Eric Young Jr stabilized the position, CF was even worse. I bet fans don't remember that we actually opened up the season with Colin Cowgill as the starter. After he flopped we even gave Rick Ankiel a try until Terry Collins made Juan Lagares the primary starter in mid-May after he hit a ridiculous .346 in AAA Las Vegas.
Lagares started slow batting only .171 in May but turned it on in the early summer months batting .271 in June and .353 in July before cooling back off as the season neared its end. In addition Lagares was flat out magical in CF posting a +21.5 UZR in CF which was 2nd in the MLB behind only Carlos Gomez who played 420 more innings. Extrapolated out to a 150 game season, Lagares would have posted a +33.1 UZR.
Just to show you how amazing that would be, Since UZR became readily used in 2002 only 3 players have ever topped a +30 UZR. Alfonso Soriano as a LF in 2007 (+32.0), Franklin Gutierrez as a CF in 2009 (+31.0), and Manny Machado last season as a 3B (+31.2)
Lagares started slow batting only .171 in May but turned it on in the early summer months batting .271 in June and .353 in July before cooling back off as the season neared its end. In addition Lagares was flat out magical in CF posting a +21.5 UZR in CF which was 2nd in the MLB behind only Carlos Gomez who played 420 more innings. Extrapolated out to a 150 game season, Lagares would have posted a +33.1 UZR.
Just to show you how amazing that would be, Since UZR became readily used in 2002 only 3 players have ever topped a +30 UZR. Alfonso Soriano as a LF in 2007 (+32.0), Franklin Gutierrez as a CF in 2009 (+31.0), and Manny Machado last season as a 3B (+31.2)
2014
Starter: Juan Lagares
Steamer Projections: .254 AVG/.295 OBP/.365 SLG, 9 HR, 61 RBI, 14 SB, 33 BB, 121 K
Look....I've heard all the talk about keeping EYJ in LF and starting Chris Young in CF, but I just do not see how you can take out quite possibly the best defensive CF in baseball and send him back to AAA especially when he has already hit for an AVG over .338 in A+, AA, and AAA. There has NEVER been a question about this kid's bat and I believe he's in line for a strong sophomore season despite what STEAMER is predicting. I think he hits .280 with a .334 OBP and 20 SB.
Verdict: Moderate to Massive improvement.
Bonus! Here's some supporting footage if you've forgotten how good he is defensively.
Mack - I have no idea who I going to be the 2014 centerfielder but, if it is Lagares, I can't see him possibly duplicating his defensive numbers. I've always loved his game, but 2013 was a dream season in the field for him.
Bat wise, I also don't think he will fair well. Yes, he hit well in winter ball this off season but that's like a choose up game on the corner against girls.
So, if Lagares is the centerfielder, I see regression... which will eventually result in the loss of his job to Curtis Granderson (when Cesar Puello comes up).
Again... just my opinion.
Bonus! Here's some supporting footage if you've forgotten how good he is defensively.
Mack - I have no idea who I going to be the 2014 centerfielder but, if it is Lagares, I can't see him possibly duplicating his defensive numbers. I've always loved his game, but 2013 was a dream season in the field for him.
Bat wise, I also don't think he will fair well. Yes, he hit well in winter ball this off season but that's like a choose up game on the corner against girls.
So, if Lagares is the centerfielder, I see regression... which will eventually result in the loss of his job to Curtis Granderson (when Cesar Puello comes up).
Again... just my opinion.
Still think den Deekker gets a share of CF by mid-season, but no to a share with CY or Granderson.
ReplyDeleteHopefully, a productive Puello will allow for an ASB trade of CY and a LF/RF shuffle not effecting CF.
I love Lagares as our CF. I I believe his defense will be just as good and batting average will get better. He needs to improve his OBP and stealing of bases. So he can be our top of the order guy.
ReplyDeleteMy statement on Lagares to Mack still stands.
ReplyDeleteThis kid has never, not once, had an issue putting the bad on the ball. .306 AVG in 115 A+ games, .304 AVG in 168 AA games, and .346 in his short time in Las Vegas.
The reality is...he probably should have spent more time in Vegas, but now that he's got a season under his belt in the MLB there's no reason to be surprised if he hits over .275 this season.
No one wants to be more wrong about a player than I do about Lagares
ReplyDeleteI would think as he gains more experience at the major league level in CF his defensive performance will be at a high level. In fact barring injury his natural speed and strong arm should keep him among the top CF defenders in 2014 and beyond.
ReplyDeleteI also believe we have our leadoff hitter right here. He's had solid OPB in the minors, could steal 20 or bases and has the potential to hit 10-15 HRs year. Let him grow into the job as leadoff hitter.
2014 is a year for experimentation, transition and last chances for the club. It's not like batting him leadoff is going to hurt our run at the WC. The fact is he's probably the best alternative and if it works out you've solved your leadoff woes for the next half decade or so.
D Whit...
ReplyDeleteHis High OBP in the minors was directly influenced by his higher batting averages.
If he's not hitting .280 or better than he's a terrible option to lead-off.
I certainly wouldn't start the season with him as the lead-off guy....My vote is for murphy.
I would move Murphy to #3 and push everyone else down a slot. Bat lagares and Darnnaud 1-2
ReplyDeleteJohn-I agree 100%. That's a great 1 and 2 at the top the order. I think TDA is perfect #2 hitter.
ReplyDeleteI think Murphy is too streaky and isn't a very good baserunner. Lagares didn't walk a lot in the minors true. But that's something Hudgens will work on with him-better plate discipline.
As I said, Lagares would have to grow into the position, but so what, the upside is to great to not give him to develop into a leadoff hitter. You don't know what his ceiling is yet and its too soon to say that he can't be leadoff hitter but it's the perfect time to find out if he can do it.
@ D Whit...
ReplyDeleteMurph does not get enough credit for his baserunning...did you realize he stole 23 out of 26 bases last year?
Chris-I think that's because those 23 SBs came out of nowhere. He never swiped more than the 14 he had in 2008 with the B-Mets. Opposing teams will be expecting him to run more and putting at the top of the order would further make him a target for catchers and pitchers to keep close to the bag and not get as good of a lead.
ReplyDeleteUnless in his late 20's he's added speed to his game I think 2013 was an anomaly in his SB numbers. This is the same players who sole 5 and was caught 5 times in 2011. Also, his .319 OBP doesn't really inspire confidence for Murph atop the order either. Add to that his streaky nature as a hitter-when he is cold at the plate his bat is non-existent. That is not something you want in a leadoff hitter.
He can steal bases from the 3 slot. Yeah I think TDA is perfect #2 cause he takes a lot of pitches. If this is the team we go to war with I really hope they try this batting order out for more than a day or so.
ReplyDelete