The 1st part of our series showed that we should expect massive improvement from the catching. Lets take a look at whether or not the team's 1B will show the same.
(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)
2013
Stats: .234 AVG/.353 OBP/.368 SLG, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 8 SB, 33 2B, 0 3B, 102 BB, 171 K
(24th in MLB OPS)
The Mets entered the season hoping that Ike Davis would be more consistent across the entire season rather than the extreme 1st half/2nd half split that he was in 2012. As we all know, that did not exactly happen. In the first half of the season Ike hit only .165 with 5 HR and 73 K to 25 BB earning himself a demotion to AAA Las Vegas. Davis would come back however and slash a career high .286 AVG with a .449 OBP but at the expense of his power as he smashed only 4 more HR.
In his absence Lucas Duda split time with Josh Satin. While Satin's .317 AVG, 12 2B, and 2 HRs were excellent, Duda was even worse hitting as a 1B then he was as a LF. In his games as a LF, "The Dude" had a .234 AVG with a .453 SLG, but as a 1B, he only hit .219 with a .371 SLG.
2014
Starter: Ike Davis
Steamer Projections: .238 AVG/.341 OBP/.439 SLG, 27 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, 85 BB, 155 K
Steamer projections are giving Davis a small bump in batting average based on his reduced K rate once he returned from AAA and they also believe his power outage last season was an aberration rather than the norm. For comparisons sake, Duda is projected to output the same triple slash line as Davis but with fewer HRs and far worse defensive numbers.
Verdict: Push. Roughly the same production but with more power.
Mack - Life sometimes just isn't fair. Davis was supposed to hit around 35 home runs until sometime in 2017 when Dom Smith is ready. Then the Mets could ship Davis off for some prospect that could have helped them at another position.
Instead, we had to go through that painful 'let's throw Davis a curve and watch him swing like a sissy' period and now we have no idea 'who's on first'.
If what I'm hearing is true (Smith opens up 2014 in Savannah and could end the season at the A+ level), than I'd rather go with the Duda/Satin platoon for one year and one year only. You do get a utility infielder (Satin) out of this and Duda would double as your 6th outfielder.
I'm also going to assume that the Mets send Wilmer Flores back to Las Vegas to learn first base and I'll give the position to him in 2015.
Davis? I would move him, but if nothing comes back, than I believe that he doesn't have any options left while Duda has one. For the sake of the team then, you might see the platoon Davis/Satin.
Mack - Life sometimes just isn't fair. Davis was supposed to hit around 35 home runs until sometime in 2017 when Dom Smith is ready. Then the Mets could ship Davis off for some prospect that could have helped them at another position.
Instead, we had to go through that painful 'let's throw Davis a curve and watch him swing like a sissy' period and now we have no idea 'who's on first'.
If what I'm hearing is true (Smith opens up 2014 in Savannah and could end the season at the A+ level), than I'd rather go with the Duda/Satin platoon for one year and one year only. You do get a utility infielder (Satin) out of this and Duda would double as your 6th outfielder.
I'm also going to assume that the Mets send Wilmer Flores back to Las Vegas to learn first base and I'll give the position to him in 2015.
Davis? I would move him, but if nothing comes back, than I believe that he doesn't have any options left while Duda has one. For the sake of the team then, you might see the platoon Davis/Satin.
Gotta get SOMETHING back for EITHER Ike or Duda. Just gotta.
ReplyDeleteYou give Davis the starting 1B job from day #1 of spring training. This way he can relax and just play and rebuilt his confidence. You send Flores to AAA. Ike is given let's say until June 1st as full-time 1B, if his splits are off, or he struggles badly you begin platooning him with Satin (I mean if he's absolutely abysmal you do it sooner of course).
ReplyDeleteAll this time you're playing Wilmer everyday at 1B in Vegas. If Ike is still totally lost by mid-June or so you bring up Duda and platoon him with Satin until you're comfortable with Wilmer playing 1B at the MLB level.
As for Davis? You see what you can for him in a trade or outright release him. If he plays well then you have either a trading deadline chip or your 2014 starting 1B.
All the while you're building Wilmer's value by adding another (and more realistic) position that he can play. He can either become your next starting 1B or part of a future package.
If all four wash out? Move Murphy to 1B and put EYjr at 2B and wait on "the Dom".