Mack’s Morning Report – 1-22-14 - 2007 Draft, Draft Picks, Rafael Montero, Mitchell Boggs, Ron Davis

Robert Brender ‏@robertbrender - If the offseason ended today would you consider it a success, failure or somewhere in between for the #Mets?

Rob Patterson ‏@RobPatterson83 - @robertbrender Much closer to a failure than a success. No significant upgrades & failed to accomplish top priorties at SS & 1B

-We come to the last year in the series (2000-2007) of draft picks made in the first three rounds by the NL East teams. The points I’ve been trying to make have already been made… this is a high risk game that results in a success rate somewhere between 3-7%.

And the primary reason isn’t based on whether or not some of the players that don’t get to the major league level aren’t talented. There simply aren’t many jobs there once this process ends each year.

Remember… you have 30 teams with an average of 8.5 minor league affiliates. That’s 255 shortstops when you only have 30 jobs at the major league level. We continue:

2007 –

Mets  -          

            #1       RP       Eddie Kunz               3-IP, 13.50

            #1       P          Nathan Vineyard              career ended at the A level

            #2       P          Scott Moviel                       career ended at the A+ level

            #2       P          Brant Rustich                     career ended at the A+ level

            #3       P          Stephen Clyne                    career ended at the AA level

            Six of the 52 players drafted made it to the pro level

Three (Lucas Duda, Robert Carson, Dillon Gee) have had some success at that level     

           

Florida –

            #1       3B       Matt Dominguez               697-AB, .248

            #2       OF       Giancarlo Stanton                        1,749-AB, .265, 117-HR

            #3       C          Jameson Smith                   career ended at the A+ level

            Four of the 50 players made it to the major league level

            Three (Dominguez, Stanton, Steven Cichek) have had success at that level

Nats –

            #1       P          Ross Detwiler         408-!P, 18-29, 3.79

            #1       P          Josh Smoker                        career ended at the A+ level

            #1       OF       Michael Burgess               career still at the AA level

            #2       P          Jordan Zimmerman          693-IP, 43-35, 3.40

            #2       3B       Jake Smolinski                    career still at the AAA level

            #3       3B       Steven Souza                      career still at the AA level

            Three of the 53 players drafted made it to the major league level

            All three (Detwiler, Zimmerman, Derek Norris) had success at this level

Atlanta –

            #1       OF       Jason Heyward                  1,885-AB, .259, 234-RBI

            #1       3B       Jon Gilmore             career ended at the AA level

            #2       C          Joshua Fields          career still at the AAA level

            $2       1B       Freddie Freeman               1,686-AB, .285, 280-RBI

            #3       SS        Brandon Hicks                    90-AB, .133

            Four out of the 52 players drafted made it to the pro level

            Two (Heyward, Freeman) had success at that level

Philadelphia –

            #1       P          Joe Savery                48-IP, 3-2, 4.15

            #1       C          Travis d’Arnaud                 99-AB, .202

            #2       IF         Travis Mattair       career still at the AA level

            #3       P          Brandon Workman           42-IP, 6-3, 4.97

            #3       P          Matt Spencer         career ended at the AA level

            Seven of the 52 players drafted made it to the pro level

Four (Savery, Workman, Justin De Fratus, Jake Diekman) have had some success at that level.

  259 ballplayers were drafted in 2007 by the NL East teams

  24 made it to the MLB level -  9.2%

Only 15 had success at that level   -  6%

Tommy B  said –

Mack, love the draft updates - it DOES show how difficult it is to pick successful big leaguers. That said, since the draft started, the Mets have to be one of the worst teams in producing offensive players via the draft. Maybe with Cecchini, Nimmo, and Smith that is about to change. They have certainly done OK with pitchers over time.

Mack – Well, the fact remains that, under Omar Minaya and Fred Wilpon, the Mets chose not to over slot like other teams did and pay the excess bonus money. I never have been able to define why that was a no-no, while, at the same time, you could sign a re-tread to a long term contract, but that was how they operated. I used to get so upset when I kept seeing teams like Boston pick prospect after prospect while the Mets were trying to find some household name like Nathan Vineyard.

All of baseball is now working under a new, controlled system so it’s tough to tell if Sandy Alderson would have handed this drafting thing differently. I love what he has done at the lower levels, be it through the draft, international free agents, or trades.

Herb said –

I just don't see us getting a young, quality SS via trade in the near future. Seems we'll just have to wait for 2014/2015 free agency. That may be all for the best, since I really do not want to trade Montero, and holding onto Flores until we see the 1B situation resolved isn't the worst thing in the world.

                   Mack – I basically don’t want to trade anyone playing this game at an age of 24 or below, with above-average talent. Both Wilmer Flores and Rafael Montero are two of the top prospects in the Mets system and should be given every chance to flourish. The Flores situation should be off the table. He has no place to go than AAA-Las Vegas and he has no position to play other than first base. Just leave him alone and forget he’s there. Frankly, and sadly, you need to release Alan Dykstra and keep Brandon Allen as your backup (remember, Eric Campbell can also play first). If this doesn’t work… fine… Jayce Boyd will be ready to play Vegas on OD 2015, followed by Dominic Smith on OD 2016.

                   Regarding Montero, his chances of making a future Met rotation diminish every day, but that doesn’t mean his blazing fastball should be dealt off to another team. He’s a perfect one-pitch 8^th inning specialist and, if both Jenrry Mejia and John Lannan pitch well out of ST, I would add Montero to the exisiting Queens pen as early as OD. He really doesn’t need any more time in Vegas.

Mike Puma ‏@NYPost_Mets - Was told nothing is on the front burner for Mets bullpen. Team is still "somewhat" interested in Mitchell Boggs.

                        Mack – Before we go into whether or not Boggs would be a good option, let’s see what is already in the Mets pen and whether or not anyone is needed.

                        (we’re also entering that area where less money is being spent than last year… I can’t help it if the 25-man squad in 2014 is going to wind up filled with team controlled players)

                        So, what do have?

1 – Bobby Parnell says he’s 100% and ready to take back the closer role

2 – This means that Vic Black becomes the favorite for the 8^th inning specialist

3 – I have to jump ahead here. The Mets have signed Bartolo Colon and John Lannan. They now are rumored to be actually looking at another starter to compete in camp, and then there’s Rafael Montero. The point I’m trying to make is… Carlos Torres is no longer a rotation option and will join the pen full time in 2014

4 & 5 – You have to have lefties, right? Well, the Mets have three of them on the 40-man (Josh Edgin, Scott Rice, Jacob deGrom) and my guess is two of these will make the pen (I also expect deGrom to return for now to Vegas and remain in the rotation there).

This leaves Jeurys Famila and Gonzalez Germen to fight it out for the 6^th and 7^th spot… or is ther seven spots?

You have five rotation pitchers, eight position starters, two reserve outfielders, a backup catcher, and two backup infielders. That’s 18 players and we haven’t even factors in the fact that you’ll have Quintanilla as a UT infielder, Duda splitting time with Davis, and Satin doing something.

That takes us to 19, leaving six reliever positions.

So, the question is, are we just jerking off when we say there’s room for another relief pitcher?

Regarding Boggs, he’s a 6-4 righty who has pitched (well) mostly for St. Louis (2008-2013). His best season as 2012: 78-G, 4-1, 2.21, 1.05… he was then traded in 2013 to Colorado for ‘International free agent money’ (WTF?) and finished 0-0, 3.12 in 9-G.

Ron Davis on his son Ike and the Mets –

                        “I think that’s why the Mets have really screwed up in that situation — because they’ve publicly done it so much, it’s saying to my son, ‘Hey, we don’t want you anymore.’  So I think they backed themselves into a corner saying, ‘We want to trade you, but we want ‘X’ amount.’ Now, with Milwaukee getting [Mark] Reynolds and [Lyle] Overbay and this guy, now they’re backing themselves into a corner. They’re in a situation like, ‘Well, heck, we may have to keep him now.’ If you would have done it quietly and said, ‘Hey, well people called us, we didn’t call them,’ then you could have something to say. But when you’ve gone out publicly and said, ‘Hey, we don’t want you here anymore’ basically, he’s learned the game.

                   The media was just messed up.  When you’re hitting .162, and you make an error, it’s like, ‘Oh, he’s crappy.’ Now, if you’re hitting. 262 or .302, it’s, ‘Oh, he made an error. Aw, shoot, that was a tough hop.’ … It’s how you’re hitting. You don’t find a guy who is the Gold Glove hitting .162. You find the guy who’s hitting .362 and doesn’t catch very well.”

                   Mack – It seems to me that father Ron is as guilty as the people he is criticizing. It is not going to help his son right now to be mouthing off at some public event like he did here. As if there isn’t enough shit on top of Ike’s plate. Boy, I hope the Mets can find a home for the guy so he can get on to playing the sport he used to love.

Andy Martino –

                        “They finalized their deal with infielder Omar Quintanilla yesterday, but their stance on Drew is unchanged. They like the guy, but are not, like, super hot for him or anything, and they can wait. As Boras said, he and Drew can also wait.” http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/baseballinsider/2014/01/derek-jeter-omar-quintanilla-yankees-ny-mets-and-how-it-all-relates-to-ste-0

Mack – It seems everybody can wait here. Martino didn’t even sound excited writing about this. I think we’ve all had enough of the Drew-Boras drama.