Mack’s Morning Report – 1-6 – Juan Lagares, Mike Pelfrey, $NY, Philly $, $tephen Drew, World Series Odds

 

MLB Network Radio ‏@MLBNetworkRadio  -  .@Jim_Duquette on Drew to #Mets: "Not only do they want him. They need him. To me he's a difference maker."

 

SB Nation -

At 300 PAs, BB%, K%, and HR% are stable, and that is all we need going forward to project his wRC+. To add further weight to this methodology, Juan Lagares's BB% and K% were remarkably stable in the 2nd half, hovering right around 6% and 21% each month (in September his BB% and K% stayed the same, but his BABIP cratered to .222 and his wRC+ collapsed to to 21, which, you know, kinda illustrates the point of this post). It is reasonable to say he won't walk or strike out much more than that.

His BABIP is more interesting. He seems to be, like David Wright, someone who has the speed and hit tools that will enable him to drive his career BABIP above average. His BABIPs in the minors in seasons of 300 PAs or more are as follows: .265, .329, .379, .337, and .310 in MLB.

Assuming his defensive-independent hitting stays as it was in the second half of 2013, how high would his BABIP have to be to make him a league-average hitter? http://www.amazinavenue.com/2014/1/4/5272442/juan-lagares-depends-on-babip-what-will-that-look-like#comments

Mack – As this writer proves (read the whole article), there is only so much you can say about a light hitting outfielder that strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk. I really enjoyed Lagares’ year in 2013 and maybe the Mets should have marketed his defensive skills into a decent trade for a prospect shortstop. Given my choices, now that the team has two more excellent defensive centerfielders, I would have EYJ in right (leadoff), Grandy in center, and Chris Young in right… Lagares would be #4 with Cesar Puello up in July.

 

Brandon Warne -

You aren’t going to draft Mike Pelfrey. You probably won’t pick him up in season. You may not even use him as a two-start option. But Pelfrey isn’t as bad as he looked last year, and in fact may have some untapped upside that the Twins could be getting on the cheap after re-signing him to a two-year, $11 million deal. Pelfrey missed nearly all of the 2012 season after having Tommy John surgery, and rushed back to join a Twins rotation in shambles just a year later. It was obvious he wasn’t right from the get-go, and he said as much himself — though much later on. Take a look at his ERA by month:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-pelf-on-the-shelf/

Mack – Warne goes on and makes a good point about adding the ex-Mers ace back into the Tigers rotation. Wouda thunk it.

 

John asked –

Hey Mack.  I might have missed it somewhere, but did the Mets ever say how much SNY pays for rights to broadcast the team? I know the Wilpons have a stake in SNY with Comcast and Turner( I think it's those two). We should be getting paid pretty well considering they ask for a lot from their viewers on a monthly basis? I am just thinking out loud because the Phillies just signed a $2.5 billion 25 year contract that begins in 2016 with a minority share in advertising fees as well.

Since we somewhat own our own broadcasting channel shouldn't the Mets get more, because they are cutting out the middleman and I believe we are in the top market?

           Mack – The Mets own 65% of SNY.

In addition, SNY pays the Mets in the range of $60-70mil a year for broadcast rights of the games.

(SNY as a stand-alone business is very profitable… estimate yearly profits are $75mil).

In 2013, Bloomberg reported MLB team valuations, with the New York Mets ranking 4th (out of 30), with a $2.1 billion valuation, with $1.2 billion coming from SNY.

I’m sure the Mets profits here will increase in future deals, but this is the one in hand and you can’t shake a stick at $1.2billion.

The difference between Philadelphia and the Mets lies in where the team invested this money. Go on to the next story and you’ll see that the increase dollars from the Philadelphia deal doesn’t translate dollar for dollar into operating salaries.

The bottom line here is the Mets lost money in 2013, as well as a sizable portion of their investment partners nest egg. The Wilpons and Saul Katz are working under an agreed plan helped set up by the banks that they owe long-term money to. Every good businessman owes long term money. That’s how you do business, but it’s the short term money (or lack of it) that got the Mets in trouble.

BTW, it’s not the Philly deal that should make you sick. Go look up the details of Seattle and you’ll see why they are going to win the Tanaka sweepstakes.

 

Jeff Todd –

We learned recently that the Phillies had reached agreement with Comcast SportsNet on a 25-year, $2.5 billion TV deal that also grants the club an equity stake and rights to ad revenue… the new, $100MM average annual revenue stream certainly promises to provide a boost over the $35MM average the club enjoyed under its previous deal. But the cash flow will not jump to nine figures overnight: by my calculations, with somewhere between a 3 and 4% annual bump built into the deal, the Phils will start out drawing something in the realm of $65MM for 2016… comparing the $100MM average across the league, Philadelphia's deal seemingly places it in roughly the position that was expected for the size of its market. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/impact-of-phillies-new-tv-deal.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Paul Lebowitz –

The Mets should go after Drew and see whether they can get him at a reasonable price. If Boras will take something in the neighborhood of three-years at $30-33 million, the Mets would have a bridge shortstop until former first round draft pick Gavin Cecchini is ready. They’d be better in the short term and definitely have someone who could help them do what the true intention is: contend in 2015. If Boras is being unreasonable or the feeling is that they’re just waiting for the Red Sox to up the offer, the Mets should move on and figure something else out. If that means they’re hoping that Tejada decides he wants to play and shows up early and in shape, so be it. http://paullebowitz.com/blog/?p=9495#.Ush0ksqA05t

Mack – Another Stephen Drew post… aren’t we all just saying the same thing these days?

 

Odds To Win The World Series –

1.  LA Dodgers +700 (+750)

2.  Washington Nationals +800 (+800)

3.  Detroit Tigers +900 (+1000)

T4. St. Louis Cardinals +1000 (900)

T4. Boston Red Sox +1000 (+1100)

6.  Texas Rangers +1100 (+900)

T7. Oakland Athletics +1400 (+1500)

T7. Atlanta Braves +1400 (+1500)

T7. New York Yankees +1400 (+1300)

T10. LA Angels +1500 (+2500)

T10. Cincinnati Reds +1500 (+1700)

T12. Tampa Bay Rays +1800 (+1600)

T12. Toronto Blue Jays +1800 (+3000) (Worst Odd on the Board)

T14. Kansas City Royals +2500 (+2500)

T14. Cleveland Indians +2500 (+2600)

T14. San Francisco Giants +2500 (+2200) (good value)

T14. Pittsburgh Pirates +2500 (+2500)

T14. Baltimore Orioles +2500 (+3100)

T19.   Arizona Diamondbacks +3300 (+3300)

T19. Seattle Mariners +3300 (+3000)

21.   Philadelphia Phillies +3500 (+3500)

22. Milwaukee Brewers +4000 (+4000)

23.   Chicago White Sox +4500 (+4400)

T24.  Chicago Cubs +5500 (+5700)

T24. Colorado Rockies +5500 (+5000) (Great Value)

26.   San Diego Padres +6600 (+7000)

T27.   Minnesota Twins +8000 (+7700)

T27.   New York Mets +8000 (+7700)

29.   Miami Marlins +10000 (+10000)

30.   Houston Astros +25000 (+22000)