Reese Kaplan - Are We Better Off Now Than a Year Ago?

There have been quite a few blog entries written about how the Mets team is better today than they were last year.  Let’s take a look at that conjecture and see whether or not it passes muster.

1B

Ike Davis was coming off his incredibly hot second half in 2012 so there were expectations it would carry over into 2013.  Instead, his rally to a .227 average wasn’t even within him and he was mercifully farmed out to Las Vegas in June where he hit .293 with 7 HRs in 92 ABs giving hope that he had finally figured out whatever was wrong.  However, upon his return he had morphed into the walking man with minimal power.  Before the abdominal injury mercifully put his season to an end, he finished his second stint in Queens by hitting .267 (respectable) but with just 4 HRs and 17 RBIs in 132 ABs.  Extrapolated over a full season that would be about 18 HRs and 74 RBIs.  It’s probably not the 32 HR guy they hoped he would be, but it was somewhat encouraging. 

While Davis was on his Sin City holiday, Josh Satin played 1B quite a bit and early returns were encouraging.  He was hitting well against lefties but eventually his Ks caught up with him and he didn’t hit with nearly enough power to justify his K/AB percentage

Lucas Duda was handed 1B and mercifully brought out of the outfield.  The big man played surprisingly competent defense at 1B, but that canard that he hits better while playing first was proven wrong.  In his final month of the season playing 1B nearly every day he his .200 with 4 HRs and 10 RBIs.  Extrapolated over a full season that’s 24 HRs and 60 RBIs. 

In 2014 the Mets appear to be planning to head into the off-season with the same cast of characters.  Part of the equation is pitchers learning the batters’ weaknesses and part of it is batters learning how to adjust.  Satin probably gets the benefit of doubt having had the least amount of ABs in the majors, but it’s probably safe to say what you’ve seen with Davis and Duda is what you’re going to get. 

Verdict – Push

2B

Unless something major happens between now and opening day, Daniel Murphy’s best offensive season sets the bar higher in terms of expectations for the fans.  He never seems to get the respect he deserves, but he shows he will work to improve himself (such as adding speed to his game this past year).

Verdict – Push 

SS

The majority of the time at shortstop this year was handled by El Paso native Omar Quintanilla.  He’s proven to be a guy who is capable in small doses but gets exposed when playing too often.  2013 was no exception with his .222 AVG, 2 HRs, 21 RBIs and 2 SBs with mediocre defense.   

Going into 2014 Ruben Tejada seems to be the default shortstop option.  If we write off his 2013 effort to poor conditioning, injuries and falling out of favor with the team, let’s look at his previous two years to see what he’s capable of doing.  He’s posted an OBP as high as .360 and batted an average of .287 for these two years.  He has no power and no speed but his better than average defense suggests he is an improvement.

Verdict – 2014

3B

What can you say?  David Wright is one of the only offensive players on the Mets that pretty much any team would love to have.  He’s due back to play 3B once again and we can only wish greater health. 

Verdict – Push

C

John Buck started out like the proverbial house afire, but quickly cooled and was reverting to career norms by the time the season ended.  During his Mets tenure he hit .215 with 15 HRs and 60 RBIs.  The previous season he’d hit .219 with 15 HRs and 62 RBIs in a total of 24 extra ABs. 

Travis d’Arnaud is still a mystery and more potential than track record.  In his 2013 trial his defense far outshined his offense but he’s hit well at every level of the minors, including his 2011 season in which he hit 21 HRs with 78 RBIs while batting .311.  His 99 ABs in the majors last year produced 1 HR, 5 RBIs and a .202 AVG.  While he has the potential to be far better than any catcher the team has had since Mike Piazza left, the fact remains he’s all about potential right now.

Verdict – 2013

LF

Here’s a tough one.  You had part of the season manned by Lucas Duda, a large chunk by late pickup Eric Young and assorted warm bodies such as Andrew Brown, Mike Baxter and others.  Let’s focus on Eric Young, Jr. who played the majority of the season there.  He is all about speed but not much else.  He led the league in SBs but produced just 1 HR, 26 RBIs and a .251 AVG with a paltry .318 OBP. 

The conventional wisdom has Curtis Granderson replacing Eric Young in LF.  He’s a totally different type of ballplayer – one whose greatest attribute is power.  He was once a plus defender but nowadays is probably just average.  In his Yankee career while healthy he was a monster in terms of HRs and RBIs.  Even in his injury plagued 2013 season he sported a 1.1 WAR rating whereas in arguably Young’s best ever season he posted a 0.9. 

Verdict 2014

CF

Another tough call as it was manned in 2013 with everyone from Collin Cowgill, Rick Ankiel, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jordany Valdespin, Juan Lagares and Mike Baxter.  The majority of the ABs went to Lagares after the team discovered his defensive wizardy and cannon of an arm. 

While still not carved in stone, Lagares should see the lion’s share of the time in CF this year as well.  His Winter League numbers were encouraging and his minor league career showed improving offense has he progressed through the system including averages over prolonged periods of .346 and .370.

Verdict 2014

RF

Marlon Byrd was arguably the best move Sandy Alderson ever made in his tenure as GM.  Picking up top prospects for star players may prove better in the future, but for part of one year at nearly minimum wage Marlon Byrd played like an All Star.  His final Mets numbers included a .285 AVG with 21 HRs and 71 RBIs worth 4.0 WAR. 

Chris Young was a ponderous pickup by the Mets.   In many ways he’s living off of two good seasons sprinkled among others in which he was an all-or-nothing hitter.  He is definitely a good defender and has baserunning skills but his last couple of seasons were nothing to brag about.  He’s had some better years but given what he has produced recently he seems overpaid. 

Verdict – 2013

Starting Rotation

2013 saw the emergence of Matt Harvey as an elite starting pitcher, another solid effort from Jon Niese, recoveries by both Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner who both started off quite poorly.  When the Super Two boondoggle allowed the Mets to promote Zack Wheeler in June, he rewarded them with the 3.42 ERA through some up and down appearances.  Of course, there were starts that went to Aaron Harang, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Aaron Laffey, Shaun Marcum, Carlos Torres, Collin McHugh and Jenrry Mejia.  Of that group, Mejia, Torres, the latter starts of Dice-K and Harang were credible.  The rest were forgettable. 

In 2014 they’re starting off with Wheeler, Niese, Gee and newcomer Bartolo Colon.  They have Jenrry Mejia healing from minor surgery.  Rafael Montero has nothing left to prove in AAA.  Noah Syndergaard may make the team later in the year, too.  There are also others like Jacob deGrom and Darin Gorski on the outside looking in.  Despite missing the Goodenesque season of Matt Harvey, the rotation looks fairly solid this season.  Hoping for a 2013 repeat by Bartolo Colon is quite a dice roll.

Verdict – Push (only because of the depth in the minors)

Bullpen

The emergence of Bobby Parnell as a bona fide closer was the highlight of 2013 until his neck problem prematurely shut down his season early.  Gonzalez Germen was the pitching equivalent of Juan Lagares, someone not really on the prospect radar brought up out of desperation and he exceeded expectations when given the chance.  LaTroy Hawkins turned in one of the best seasons of his career.  Scott Rice was a great find.  Josh Edgin was doing alright prior to his njury.  Scott Atchison, Brandon Lyon and David Aardsma were mediocre.  Greg Burke and Robert Carson were awful.

2014’s pen is a bit of a mess right now.  No one seems to commit to whether or not Bobby Parnell will be ready to start the season.  If not, newcomer Vic Black is being touted as the substitute closer.  There’s no more LaTroy Hawkins.  The balance of the pen should include Rice, Edgin, Germen, Carlos Torres and some from a group that includes Ryan Reid, Joel Carreño and Jeurys Familia. 

Verdict 2013

So if we recap, we have 4 pushes, 3 for 2014, and 3 for 2013.  Management remains the same, so that’s a push, too.  Unless we see major development from some of the younger players like d’Arnaud and Lagares, an infield position for Wilmer Flores, health from Jenrry Mejia, health from Bobby Parnell and bounce back seasons from Davis, Tejada and Chris Young, there’s little reason to expect much improvement over the previous year.