Reese Kaplan - Maybe Sandy Alderson is Crazy Like a Fox

Today while I was doing my usual introspective obsessing over everything related to the Mets that I could find online, a question came to mind.  We all criticize the lack of offense, the molasses pace with which they promote pitchers and what holes the club has failed to fill.  What about the rest of the division?  How do they look with the 2014 Spring Training season about to begin?

Braves

1B       Freddie Freeman

2B       Dan Uggla

SS       Andrelton Simmons

3B       Chris Johnson

LF       Justin Upton

CF       B.J. Upton

RF       Jason Heyward

C         Evan Gattis

SP       Mike Minor

SP       Kris Medlen

SP       Julio Teheran

SP       Brandon Beachy

SP       Alex Wood

CL      Craig Kimbrel

This team’s strength is two-fold.  They have pitching and they have power.  Their top three starters may not have the pedigree (nor 9 figure contracts) of the Dodgers, but they’re collectively flying under the radar yet producing nearly equal results.  Beachy is coming off injury and Wood is unproven but looked good in a small sample last year.  They have 6 players in their lineup with 20+ HR power.  What they’re lacking is OBP and batting average (including TWO players well under the Mendoza line who were regulars).   Johnson had an unsustainable .321 year from out of nowhere but Freeman looks like the real deal.  Oh, that guy in the pen may surpass Mariano before his career is over.

Nationals

1B      Adam LaRoche
2B      Anthony Rendon
SS      Ian  Desmond
3B      Ryan Zimmerman
LF      Bryce Harper
CF      Denard Span
RF      Jayson Werth
C        Wilson Ramos

SP      Stephen Strasburg
SP      Gio Gonzalez
SP      Jordan Zimmerman
SP      Doug Fister
SP      Tanner Roark

CL     Rafael Soriano

LaRoche had a bit of a down year in 2013 with a low batting average and diminished power but he’s just a year removed from 30/100 output.  Rendon came on with great fanfare but produce “meh” stats consistent with his minor league career.  He replaced Danny Espinosa who seems like he could produce more and is still in the fold.  Desmond is one of the best in the game and Zimmerman is a solid player in the mold of his childhood pal David Wright.  Harper is arguably one of the most overrated players in the game and by everyone’s accounts one of the least liked for his antics.  Span is a solid centerfielder but his OBP and RBIs took a serious hit.  Werth finally had the year they had hoped after two lackluster seasons to begin his Nationals career.  The strength of this team, however, is its pitching.  Adding Fister to a formidable trio of Strasburg and Gonzalez and Zimmerman will ensure they are in every game.  Even Roark in his limited starts turned in a shiny 1.51 ERA.  Soriano pushed Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard into setup roles.  No matter how inconsistent their offense is, the pitching will always make them a formidable opponent.

Phillies

1B      Ryan Howard
2B      Chase Utley
SS      Jimmy Rollins
3B      Cody Asche
LF      Domonic Brown
CF      Ben Revere
RF      Marlon Byrd
C        Carlos Ruiz

SP      Cliff  Lee
SP      Cole Hamels
SP      Kyle Kendrick
SP      Roberto Hernandez
SP      Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez

CL      Jonathan Papelbon

Old age started catching up the Phillies last year and it doesn’t appear that anyone has found the fountain of youth.  Howard is an uncertainty about his health.  Utley had a pretty decent bounce back year after injuries continued to derail his career but Rollins turned in a year that fueled the schadenfreude of every Mets fan.  Asche is a big unknown for the Phillies but his minor league numbers suggest he has the potential to be Wilmer Flores-lite.  Brown started off like a house afire, but cooled off as the season unfolded.  Ben Revere hit for a high average and stole 20 bases, but his OBP is not what you’d expect from someone who profiles as a singles hitter with speed.  We know Marlon Byrd rebooted his career last year but he’s not getting any younger.  Still, he’s now in one of the best hitters’ parks in the league, so he’s a big X factor.  The starters are getting a bit older but both Lee and Hamels turned in their usual solid seasons.  After that it gets murkier.  Although he’s melted down against the Mets, Papelbon is nearly always dependable. 

Marlins

1B      Garrett Jones
2B      Rafael Furcal
SS      Adeiny Hechavarria
3B      Casey McGehee
LF      Christian Yelich
CF      Marcell Ozuna
RF      Giancarlo Stanton
C        Jarrod Saltalamacchia

SP      Jose Fernandez

SP      Jacob Turner

SP      Henderson Alvarez

SP      Nate Eovaldi

SP      Kevin Slowey

CL     Steve Cishek

Wow, where do you start here?  You have Pirates castoff Jones bringing his minimal power and subpar batting average to 1B.  Furcal was a solid player when healthy.  If he has recovered then this move improves the team.  Hechavarria hasn’t come around with the bat as much as they had hoped when he was signed out of Cuba, but his defense has been quite solid.  Casey McGehee returns after self-imposed exile to Japan where he found a job despite having had that one solid season for Milwaukee back in 2010 but it seems like an outlier.  Others have returned from Japan better than when they left (such as Cecil Fielder) so you never know.  Yelich looks like he can be a solid player with modest power and speed, but the ability to hit .300.  Ozuna was lost to injury most of last year but he’s regarded as one of the Marlins’ top prospects with four 20+ HR campaigns in the minors.  Stanton is one of the premier young sluggers in the game.  Saltalamacchia’s power decreased but batting average increased.  He’ll likely produce between 15-20 HRs and a .260 or so average.  The starting pitchers after Fernandez are a huge step downwards, but they’re hardly chopped liver.  Cishek put together a very solid year closing on a losing team. 

Mets

What is my point in doing this analysis?  With the exception of the Phillies’ lefty duo, there’s a LOT of good pitching in this division.  With the Mets rotation appearing solid if Niese and Gee pitch to their capabilities, it’s possible to win with lackluster offense.  With all their power, the Braves scored 688 runs.  The 4^th place Phillies scored 610 with the Nationals and Mets in between.  For all of the problems the Mets had pushing runs across the plate they were not that far off the division leader.  Stockpiling pitching seems to be the route to success taken by the Braves and Nationals.  Maybe Alderson is onto something. 

Of course, the Mets need an awful lot of things to break right.  Ike Davis needs to rediscover his mojo.  Daniel Murphy needs to repeat what he did last year.  Ruben Tejada needs to stay healthy and give the good quality ABs as he did in 2011 and 2012.  Remember, the Mets won the World Series in 1986 with an inferior bat in Rafael Santana manning shortstop.  David Wright needs to stay healthy.  Curtis Granderson turning in a 25/85 season would take the sting out of losing Marlon Byrd’s production from 2013.  Juan Lagares was the best hitter in his winter league, so Terry Collins aka Captain Hook needs to show patience with someone not yet nearing his social security checks.  Chris Young and Travis d’Arnaud are the huge wildcards here.  If they turn in solid performances then the team’s offense will be vastly improved.  However, even if they don’t, maturity by Zack Wheeler and a healthy Jenrry Mejia could propel the team towards a .500 or better record.  

Or they could win 74 again (resulting in yet another ponderous contract extension for Terry Collins).  

Sound off in the comments.